ABA League – Quarter Final
15-17 April
Buducnost – Zadar: The focus should be as high as possible
It's crunch time as the ABA League playoffs kick off, and there's no room for relaxation. Every team must bring their A-game if they aim for a favorable outcome. With quarterfinal matchups set as best-of-three series, the initial showdown holds immense significance. Buducnost experienced a slight dip in form following losses to Partizan and FMP, but their recent defensive prowess against Studentski Centar showcased their potential. With offensive firepower in players like McKinley Wright, Yogi Ferrell, Fletcher Magee and Allerik Freeman, all of them capable of dropping 20 or more points on any given night, they're a force to be reckoned with. While defensive consistency has been questioned, replicating the intensity displayed against Studentski Centar makes them strong contenders.
Zadar has defied expectations for two consecutive seasons under the guidance of head coach Danijel Jusup. Luka Bozic stands as their superstar, likely to clinch back-to-back MVP awards with rumors swirling around a potential move to Valencia. Alongside Bozic, Dario Dreznjak and Marko Ramljak play pivotal roles in Jusup's system as classic 3-and-D players, excelling defensively while adding significant three-point shooting threats. Despite lacking star power elsewhere on the roster, each player understands their role under Jusup's leadership, contributing to a cohesive team effort that maximizes individual potential.
Although Zadar poses a formidable challenge with their style of play, an upset seems improbable. Buducnost boasts superior individual talent and is capable to play better defensively. If they maintain defensive intensity and refrain from holding back, the visitors will struggle to keep pace. The likely scenario sees Buducnost maintaining a five to ten-point lead for the majority of the game, punctuated by a decisive 7 or 8-point run to break Zadar's resistance, ultimately securing a double-digit win for the reigning champions of Montenegro. Zadar's recent fixture in the Croatian League on Thursday means they've had less time for rest and preparation, a factor not to be overlooked.
Crvena Zvezda – Studentski Centar: It's time for the best
Crvena Zvezda suffered their heaviest EuroLeague defeat in history, falling to Anadolu Efes by 100:55 on Thursday. However, the loss didn't shake them too much as it thwarted their arch-rival Partizan's chances of qualifying for the play-in tournament. The red and whites have been out of contention for a top 10 EuroLeague spot since January, using their EuroLeague fixtures as preparation for the ABA League playoffs, which remains the club's primary focus. Trey Thompkins was recently signed to bolster the frontcourt and has quickly integrated into the team. Nemanja Nedovic has found his form, while Milos Teodosic has resumed his commanding role in the offense after a hiatus. Luka Mitrovic and Joel Bolomboy are performing at a consistent level. Despite the embarrassment of the defeat in Istanbul, Crvena Zvezda enters the playoffs in good form.
Studentski Centar concluded the regular season with four consecutive losses, all against top 4 teams in the ABA League, which comes as no surprise. Their objective was to qualify for the playoffs, which they achieved. Looking at the entire season, the board management can be more than satisfied. They clinched the ABA Supercup and the Montenegrin Cup, marking this as their best season in club history. The matchups against Crvena Zvezda serve as both a reward and an opportunity for players like Aubrey Dawkins, Luka Bogavac and Mateo Dreznjak to showcase their talent on a big stage. A standout performance in this series could certainly attract attention from bigger clubs.
Crvena Zvezda and Studentski Centar clashed in Belgrade two weeks ago, with the final score favoring the home team by 94:76. It's quite realistic to expect a similar outcome this time around. The red and whites will dictate the pace of the game and maintain a double-digit lead throughout. Towards the end of the third and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the lead may extend to over 20 points, prompting head coach Ioannis Sfairopoulos to rest his starters. In the last encounter, the visitors capitalized on this situation, narrowing the deficit from minus 30 to minus 18 in the final minutes, suggesting a victory for the hosts by a margin between 15 and 25 points as the most realistic outcome.
Mega – Cedevita Olimpija: Youth versus experience
Mega has captivated basketball fans over the past few months, rightfully securing the fourth spot in the ABA League regular season. When their superstar Nikola Topic signed with Crvena Zvezda in January, many anticipated a significant decline. However, the opposite happened. Players like Nikola Djurisic and Stefan Miljenovic maximized their increased opportunities and responsibilities, leading Mega to a string of victories. Uros Plavsic emerged as one of the top centers in the competition, while head coach Marko Barac was a legitimate candidate for the Coach of the Year award. Mega is by far the youngest team in the league, always striving to play in transition, which will be their strategy once again.
Cedevita Olimpija has been a major disappointment, a recurring theme in recent years. Despite starting with high ambitions under the leadership of Simone Pianigiani, which proved to be a failure, they replaced him mid-season with club soldier Zoran Martic. Significant player turnover saw Klemen Prepelic rewarded with a contract at Galatasaray for his stellar performances, while Karlo Matkovic ventured into the NBA. When two key players depart during the season, it speaks volumes about the lack of planning and direction. Veterans Justin Cobbs and Jaka Blazic now assume pivotal roles in the team, leveraging their experience in this series.
Although the visitors also prefer an up-tempo style of play with plenty of running, that's unlikely to be the case this time. Their strategy will likely involve slowing down the game, engaging Mega in half-court sets, and outsmarting them with their experience in 5-on-5 matchups. Easier said than done. The hosts will likely succeed in implementing their transition-heavy style for the majority of the game, and their shooting percentages will be decisive. If they shoot at least 30% from beyond the arc, Mega should secure the win. Additionally, given their similar playing styles, games between these teams typically result in over 160 combined points, and it would be surprising if that isn't the case this time.
Partizan – Igokea: A huge difference in every aspect
Partizan has experienced a significant disappointment in the EuroLeague. The ambition was to make step forward compared to last year and qualify for the Final Four. In the end, they won't even be part of the play-in. Everyone in the team is furious and frustrated about it, and the ABA League playoffs are the only chance to make amends to the numerous fans for their huge support throughout the season.
Partizan is the most-watched team in all of Europe, and that certainly carries considerable weight. Captain Kevin Punter hasn't been at his best in clutch moments, Frank Kaminsky and Bruno Caboclo have often posed defensive issues for their team in the EuroLeague, and even players like Aleksa Avramovic, Alen Smailagic and Zach LeDay haven't reached the levels of last season. However, all of that applies to the EuroLeague, while the situation in the ABA League is different. The black and whites have too much individual quality to allow any problems against a club like Igokea.
In the previous round of the ABA League, they demolished Zadar by 113:74, and it wouldn't be a shock to see something similar now. It's true that Igokea shocked Partizan earlier in the season in Belgrade, but that Igokea team has no resemblance to this one. Back then, they had players like Stefan Moody, Nikola Tanaskovic, Zoran Nikolic, Edin Atic and Haris Delalic. All of them, plus Nemanja Gordic, were allowed to leave the club when Igokea was eliminated from the FIBA Champions League, which led to very poor results. That's also why they suffered a 52:98 defeat to Partizan at their home floor in February. If they had this team from the start, Igokea definitely wouldn't be part of the playoffs. Instead, they would be fighting to avoid relegation from the ABA League. Taking all of this into account, it's realistic to expect a dominant performance from the hosts and a win by at least 20 points.