ABA League – Quarter Final - G2
Zadar – Buducnost: Completely different atmosphere this time
In the first game of the best-of-three the ABA League quarterfinals, Zadar played a solid first half in Podgorica, but completely fell apart in the third quarter. They made a series of rookie mistakes that Buducnost capitalized on to gain a big lead. Back-to-back MVP of this competition, Luka Bozic, had his worst game in the last few years with only two points scored, something that surely won't happen again this time. Moreover, he will be highly motivated to redeem himself and to show why he has been the best player in the ABA League for two consecutive seasons.
Compared to the previous match, there will be several factors favoring Zadar this time. They will play in front of 8,000 passionate fans who create a fantastic atmosphere, surely extracting maximum energy from the home team. This additional push was definitely lacking in Podgorica, but now they will have it. Also, this time Zadar didn't have a Croatian League match two days before the duel. Instead, head coach Danijel Jusup had four days to prepare for the game. All of this will help the hosts to present a much better performance as they are a tactically very good team.
There is no doubt that Buducnost still has significantly superior individual quality and is rightfully the favorite in this duel, but Zadar can definitely put up a strong resistance. If the guests double-team Bozic, players like Dario Dreznjak and Marko Ramljak will know how to capitalize on that with distance shooting. This game is much more 50/50 than Buducnost being a clear favorite as the odds suggest, and it won't be a big surprise if a decisive Game 3 is played next week in Montenegro.
Igokea – Partizan: Bigger motive at road
Usually, all teams worldwide have greater motivation when playing at home, but this game is an exception. Partizan enjoys huge support in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and every time they play against Igokea in town Laktasi, over 90% of the people in the arena wear black and white colors and root for Partizan. Igokea in this game won't have any support from the stands even though they are the hosts. Because of this situation, Zeljko Obradovic's team always plays with a special motivation to repay their loyal fans, which was best seen when they last visited and won by 98:52.
In the first game of the playoff series on Wednesday, Partizan played just as much as they needed. They triumphed by 94:85, even though they had a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter. At that point, head coach Zeljko Obradovic rested some of his best players, and Igokea took advantage to reduce the deficit. In such games, it's always difficult to predict by how much the favorite will win. In Game 1 in Belgrade, they were content to control the rhythm and secure the victory, whether by 1 or 31 points. A similar approach will likely be taken this time as well.
Realistically, the guests will have control from start to finish, with the margin mostly in double digits, probably around 20 points at some point. Again, everything will depend on the last five minutes when coach Obradovic gives a chance to players who don't usually get much playing time. Their performance will largely determine whether Partizan wins by 10, 15 or 25 points. But Igokea simply doesn't have the quality to stay close despite a decent showing in Belgrade.
Cedevita Olimpija – Mega: Pride should come to the fore
Mega showed in Game 1 that they are simply a better team than Cedevita Olimpija at this moment. Players like Nikola Djurisic, Stefan Miljenovic and Uros Plavsic will most likely wear the jerseys of one of Belgrade's EuroLeague teams next season because they deserve it. Although very young, they already possess enviable quality. Head coach Marko Barac has done a great job with this group of players, and it's impossible to play against them in transition. Cedevita Olimpija knows this well, but despite that, they couldn't find a way to slow them down, resulting in a 119:98 loss on Monday.
Styles won't change much this time either. Mega will again insist on playing as little positional basketball as possible, and Cedevita Olimpija must realize that it's the only solution to outplay their opponent. Although they also enjoy transition play, Mega is simply better at it, and they can't be outplayed in that manner. The club from Ljubljana has invested a lot of money in recent years, but none of it has yielded results. Every project has failed, and it's clear to everyone that this Cedevita Olimpija is not capable of competing for the title. Moreover, it would be a surprise if they qualify for the ABA League semifinals, which would be a debacle in itself.
However, this game will be a matter of honor and pride. Veterans like Justin Cobbs, Alen Omic, Jaka Blazic and Zoran Dragic have played many important games in their careers. This one may not carry such significance, but it would be a certain humiliation if the relatively inexperienced Mega were to sweep them by 2-0 in the series. Playing at home will give them more confidence in their three-point shooting, they will be in a more comfortable environment, and victories against Partizan and Crvena Zvezda in the regular season have shown that they do have a certain level of quality. If any series of the ABA League quarterfinals is going to see a Game 3, it's this one. It might not be convincing, but the hosts have the edge at home.
Studentski Centar – Crvena Zvezda: A very strange introduction to the series
What happened in Belgrade on Monday was a first-rate surprise for all who closely follow the ABA League. Crvena Zvezda came into the game dazed and lacking confidence after their heaviest defeat in EuroLeague history to Anadolu Efes last week. They were devoid of ideas in offense and took poor shots. Studentski Centar came in fantastically prepared. They tested their opponents' shots, exploited their weaknesses, and played with a lot of confidence. This led to a double-digit lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter, but then the referees intervened.
Since April 9, 2018, it hadn't happened that a visiting team won a game in the ABA League finals. Only Crvena Zvezda, Partizan and Buducnost have played in the finals since then. A total of 23 final games have been played since that date, with the home team winning all 23 games. The reason is that all three aforementioned teams benefit from favorable refereeing when playing at home. And the difference is not just in the finals; even in earlier playoff stages when they face objectively weaker opponents, as in this case. While it's true that Crvena Zvezda hit a lot of three-pointers in the fourth quarter, they were allowed aggressive defense to which Studentski Centar couldn't find a solution. The red and whites aggressively pursued offensive rebounds, and all of that was tolerated. They won't have that assistance in Podgorica.
The question is whether Studentski Centar can replicate such a good game at home, and whether we will finally see a reaction from Crvena Zvezda. They are more than 15 points better than Studentski Centar on paper, but what's written on paper isn't enough in live play. A comfortable victory would restore their confidence, but they'll have to work hard for it. Adam Hanga got injured in practice and won't be in the visitors' roster, but the hosts will also be without young David Mirkovic, which is a significant absence. This is definitely the toughest game to predict, but it makes sense for Studentski Centar to be within single-digit deficit for most of the match and for the outcome to be decided in the last quarter, whether Crvena Zvezda wins by a double-digit margin or between five and nine points. Anything else would be a surprise.