ABA League – Quarter Final - G2

Buducnost – Partizan: It will be much more dramatic than in Game 1

Buducnost is not the same team on their home court as they are when playing at road. The reason for that is the huge support they receive from the stands, and it will be the same this time. They always create an incredible atmosphere in the playoffs and very rarely lose games. Buducnost showed some good things in the second half in Belgrade in Game 1, but poor offense in the first half cost them a chance for victory. When you score a total of 67 points in the Belgrade Arena, you can't expect much. However, their offensive potential is much greater, and they will show that in Podgorica. McKinley Wright, Fletcher Magee and Marvin Jones combined for only nine points, which definitely won't be the case in Game 2. Kenan Kamenjas can gain an advantage in the paint, and head coach Andrej Zakelj will surely try to exploit that.

There are no unknowns about Partizan. They have one of the best offenses in all of Europe and a lot of issues on the defensive end. Defensively, they often can't defend anything in the pick-and-roll, and they lack the necessary toughness. That's why they've had a large number of losses on the road this season, even against objectively weaker teams. Shooting usually works better when you play in front of your fans in a familiar environment than when you're away. Kevin Punter and Zach LeDay are always the two offensive sparks, and their mood is crucial for a good result. James Nunnally is the only consistent one, while Aleksa Avramovic and Bruno Caboclo are often more harmful than helpful on the court lately. To beat Buducnost at road in the playoffs, head coach Zeljko Obradovic will need contributions from all players who step on the court, especially on defense.

Partizan has six consecutive wins against Buducnost, which sounds almost unbelievable considering that Buducnost is consistently a top 3 team in the ABA League. Perhaps it's time to end that streak and for the hosts to come out as winners this time. They have the offensive potential to match the visitors, they can play much tougher and more aggressive defense, and they will have great support from the stands. In any case, Partizan is not as big a favorite as the paper shows. This is much more of a 50/50 game that could very easily swing in favor of the hosts rather than the black and whites being as dominant as they were in Game 1 last week. 

Mega – Crvena Zvezda: Physical dominance is key
Crvena Zvezda demolished Mega with a score of 103:73 in Game 1. Expectations were that the red and whites would achieve a convincing double-digit win, but in the end, the final outcome was even more dominant. Without their starting center Uros Plavsic, Mega lacks strength in the paint and has to use in that position players who are normally power forwards. Against the frontcourt of Crvena Zvezda, consisting of Luka Mitrovic and Joel Bolomboy, it's impossible to gain any advantage. Ioannis Sfairopoulos's team exploited this to the maximum and found numerous easy scoring opportunities. Rokas Giedraitis and Nemanja Nedovic hit the most shots, although it seemed like every Crvena Zvezda player hit something from downtown when stepping onto the court.

Game 2 shouldn't differ too much from Game 1. Crvena Zvezda is slowly reaching its peak form ahead of the ABA League finals, where they are expected to be at their highest level. Coach Sfairopoulos is trying to involve all players, so Nikola Topic is back after a few months of absence due to injury. Trey Thompkins is getting more playing time and could be a crucial factor in the final series by stretching the floor from the power forward position. This is something Crvena Zvezda lacked throughout the season because Mitrovic isn't a threat from beyond the arc.

As for Mega, they are the youngest team in the ABA League and will surely show more desire and character to redeem themselves for their poor performance in Game 1. However, they simply can't do much better than what we saw on Friday. It's definitely possible for them to keep a smaller deficit on their home court, and the difference might not be more than 10 points by the start of the fourth quarter, but it's highly unlikely that Mega will secure a victory here. The most realistic outcome is another comfortable double-digit win for Crvena Zvezda, although the difference could be between 8 and 12 points. It's also possible to see another scenario where the guests have a lead of between 16 and 20 points at the start of the final quarter, and then the pace slows down, which the hosts can take advantage of to reduce the deficit in the end.