ABA League – Round 18

Krka – Mornar: Battle for survival
27/01/24 CET 16:00

Krka and Mornar both find themselves with a 3-14 record after 17 rounds played in the ABA League. The team that loses this game will stay alone at the bottom of the table, with the highest chances of relegation to a lower rank. This emphasizes the importance of this game for both clubs. Despite Krka having the home-court advantage, Mornar enters this game in better mood and with a higher quality roster. Since signing six new players during December, Mornar has shown significant improvement, particularly with the impact of Tavian Dunn-Martin, who has emerged as a leader, scoring 54 points in the last two games. For Krka, this game is a do-or-die situation. On paper, they are considered weaker than Mornar, having suffered a defeat earlier in the season in Bar. If they lose this clash, they will have one win less and a weaker head-to-head record. In such a scenario, avoiding relegation would become extremely difficult. Krka is currently struggling with poor form, as evidenced by their recent loss to Zadar, who played without their two top players (Luka Bozic and Marko Ramljak).  In previous seasons, Mornar was known for a playing style that did not prioritize defense. Head coach Mihailo Pavicevic's strategy involved fast-paced basketball with early three-point attempts. Now, aside from Dunn-Martin and Vranjes, few can create in one-on-one situtations. Mornar enters this game in better form and with superior offensive players. However, Krka is aware of the match's significance and is unlikely to lose convincingly. They will give their all on the court, and the game is likely to be a closely contested battle with many lead changes, potentially ending in a dramatic finish. Krka has a history of pulling off bigger upsets than a win against Mornar, but they will need to perform five times better than in the previous round.

Studentski Centar – Cedevita Olimpija: The fast pace will favor the hosts
27/01/24 CET 18:00

Studentski Centar and Cedevita Olimpija both enjoy playing at a fast pace and scoring a high number of points, and that is unlikely to change in their upcoming matchup. When they first met in October, the final score was 102:93, emphasizing their preference for high-scoring games. Since that match, both teams have undergone changes. Studentski Centar changed their head coach, with Andrej Zakelj accepting an offer from Buducnost. On the other hand, Cedevita Olimpija replaced Simone Pianigiani with Zoran Martic. Klemen Prepelic, who dominated with 23 points in the previous encounter, is no longer part of Cedevita Olimpija. At this moment, Studentski Centar boasts a deeper rotation and will be extremely motivated to end their four-game losing streak in the ABA League. With players like Aubrey Dawkins, Borna Kapusta and Tomislav Ivisic, the hosts can compete with Cedevita Olimpija. Karlo Matkovic will soon leave the Ljubljana-based club to continue his career in the NBA, and his focus is likely far from the current situation in the team. While Justin Cobbs and Jaka Blazic have the ability to tip the balance in favor of Cedevita Olimpija, this has mostly been the case when playing on their home court in Ljubljana.  In this lineup, Cedevita Olimpija may find difficulties in away games in the ABA League until the end of the season, as seen in Split a few weeks ago. The three-point shooting will be of significant importance, and the only way for the visitors to secure a win here is to have much better shooting percentages than Studentski Centar. Otherwise, they will likely face a scenario similar to what happened in Split.

Igokea – Borac Cacak: Resilience
27/01/24 CET 20:00

This is probably the word that best describes the Igokea we will see in this game. In the last round, they suffered a convincing defeat away from home against Cedevita Olimpija and will now want to redeem themselves for that. It's definitely not easy for the players as the team performed exceptionally well in October and November, but then the board management decided to let go of four key players to other teams to reduce the budget after being eliminated from the FIBA Champions League. Nevertheless, not everyone in the team is giving up, and they still believe they can make it to the playoffs, as evidenced by their win against Studentski Centar. Borac Cacak has achieved much more than predicted so far, but this is a game they will find hard to win. They are not playing as well as they did at the beginning of the season, which is normal because their rotation is not excessively deep. They heavily rely on Ronaldo Segu and Tylan Birts, who are not players that deliver their best performance every time. Borac's significant strength is their home court advantage, as the gym is always filled, motivating the players even more. However, in this road game in Laktasi, it is more realistic to expect Igokea to control the game for a larger part and eventually triumph with at least a two-possession difference.

Mega – Buducnost: Quality will prevail
28/01/24 CET 11:00

And quality is on the side of Buducnost in this case. On Tuesday, they lost to Ulm in the EuroCup, thereby eliminating any realistic chances of qualifying for the next phase. As painful as it may be, they must quickly shift their focus to the ABA League because the only way to save this season is to achieve something significant in this competition. Head coach Andrej Zakelj has made several changes since taking over the team, but with so many poor moves made during the summer by former coach, it's impossible to fix everything in a short time. Yogi Ferrell and Kenan Kamenjas are true upgrades, and Vladimir Mihailovic has been playing like a rejuvenated player lately. Mega is by far the youngest team in the ABA League. They often experience significant ups and downs, which is understandable. Their best player, Nikola Topic, left a month ago. Since his departure, Nikola Djurisic and Omercan Ilyasoglu have taken on even more crucial roles, and Uros Plavsic serves as a true mentor to the younger players with his experience. Some wins against Borac Cacak and Cedevita Olimpija may be surprising, but it's not realistic for that to last. Buducnost has experience and quality at all positions, and anything other than a comfortable win for them would be a surprise. The advantage will likely become double-digit at some point. Buducnost demonstrated their seriousness against Krka and Cibona on the road, and a similar task awaits them now. In the end, it should be a triumph without drama in the last two minutes.

Crvena Zvezda – Partizan: Eternal derby for pole position. 28/01/24 CET 18:00

The last road win in any ABA League finals series was achieved by Buducnost in 2018. Since then, 23 games have been played in the finals, and each time the home team emerged victorious. The finals have featured only Crvena Zvezda, Partizan and Buducnost in the last six years. When that time of the year comes, the arena is packed to the last seat, fans are electrified to madness, and basketball becomes more than just a game. In such an atmosphere, securing an away win is extremely difficult. Therefore, home-court advantage in the ABA League finals is more crucial than in any other league in Europe. As in the previous two seasons, Crvena Zvezda and Partizan are the only realistic contenders for the top spot. The red and whites currently holds a two-win lead over their eternal rivals, and a triumph here would solidify their position at the top of the table. On the other hand, a victory for Partizan would give them a better head-to-head record and put immense pressure on Crvena Zvezda. In an identical situation last year, Crvena Zvezda stumbled and shockingly lost to Cibona in Zagreb, ultimately conceding the top spot to Partizan. That determined the champion in the end. All of this emphasizes the importance of this game for both teams. Three and a half weeks ago, Partizan suffered a humiliating defeat to Crvena Zvezda in the EuroLeague, and they will undoubtedly approach this game with a different mindset and response. For the first time this season, the black and whites are fully healthy, without injury concerns. The same cannot be said for the hosts. Nemanja Nedovic and Nikola Topic are sidelined, while Milos Teodosic is not at 100% due to a hamstring injury. Crvena Zvezda's backcourt is crippled, and in such a situation, they will face extreme difficulties to outplay Partizan. Unlike in ABA League finals where away teams rarely win, it's not always the case in the regular season. Momentum and the health situation are crucial, favoring Partizan currently. It's realistic to expect a true derby with numerous lead changes, but when it matters most, the guests will have the edge.

Split – FMP: It doesn't look promising for the visitors 28/01/24 CET 17:00

FMP lost three consecutive games and currently stands at 5-12 in the ABA League. Their record could have been even worse as they narrowly defeated Krka and Mornar on the road more due to luck than skill. If those games had ended differently, FMP would now be at the bottom of the table. Despite having individual quality in their roster, something simply hasn't clicked for Zeleznik-based club this season. This hasn't changed even with Stevan Mijovic taking over as head coach from Nenad Stefanovic. Based on everything seen so far, it would be a surprise if they traveled to Split and returned with a win. On the other hand, Split has been playing really well since signing Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan. If they had them from the first round, they would probably be in a playoff position now. The "Yellows" has not given up on that ambition, and to achieve it, home wins are imperative. Moreover, when you have recently outplayed Cedevita Olimpija and Mega at home, it's absurd to fear a team like FMP. While surprises are always possible, the realistic scenario here is too see complete control by Split in the second half and a comfortable win with a minimum of two or three possessions advantage.

Cibona – Zadar: An important test for the hosts 29/01/24 CET 19:00

In the last round, Cibona suffered a home defeat against Buducnost by 66:98. This is an outcome that everyone would have expected from this roster if the match had been played in the first round. However, Cibona has surprised everyone with their overachievements this season, securing six well-deserved wins. Some games were won with impressive three-point shooting, but they have also been able to inflict damage on opponents in the paint through Tomislav Buljan. Now it's time to see their reaction as their last ABA League victory in front of their fans was achieved back in early December. The Croatian derby will surely bring out the maximum effort from the hosts, and the crowd always turns out in decent numbers for such clashes. Zadar is currently facing certain issues. Their star player Luka Bozic did not play against Krka due to an injury, but the situation is not too serious, and he is almost certain to be on the court in this game. Things more complicated with Marko Ramljak, who has been sidelined for a month, but there are slim chances that he might travel to Zagreb. Nevertheless, all these disruptions have likely affected their practice routine, and we may not see the powerful Zadar that dominated for most of the season. Cibona could capitalize on this, and even if the guests might be considered favorites on paper, the momentum could be on Cibona's side.