ABA League – Round 11
Cibona-Split: A very important game for both teams 07/12/23
The one who triumphs in this game will make a huge step towards avoiding relegation in the ABA League, which is the primary goal for both teams this season. Teams like Mornar and Krka will find it challenging to win more than five or six times, so the winner here may only need two or three more victories to achieve their goal by the end of the season.
Split has completely changed the DNA of their team since the signings of Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan. In the first eight rounds, they looked like one of the weakest teams in the competition, but now they appear capable of competing for the eighth spot leading to the playoffs. Cibona was the biggest favorite to finish last in the league because they have the cheapest and weakest roster on paper. However, they are playing above expectations despite financial problems. Head coach Jaksa Vulic even said last weekend that it would be a miracle if they finish the season at all unless something changes because no one in the team is getting paid due to a lack of funds.
Given the importance of the game, we will likely see extremely aggressive basketball, with defenses having the upper hand over the opposing offense. In some games, Cibona has managed to slow down much more potent offenses than Split's. On the other hand, before the arrival of Shorter and Sullivan, Split had the weakest offense in the competition. Things are different now, but it's still far from perfection. The winner could easily be decided in the final moments, and the total number of points should not exceed 152-155 points unless there are exceptional shooting percentages from beyond the arc.
Krka-Igokea: The visitors have too much quality at this moment 08/12/23
Igokea is the standout team of the ABA League this season. They currently hold the second place with an 8-2 record, and it doesn't seem like the positive trend will stop here in Novo Mesto. They perform well on both ends of the court, and some players who were sidelined due to injury, such as Jackie Carmichael and Mario Nakic, have returned to the roster. Apart from Stefan Moody, there isn't a super-talented individual in the roster, but as a collective unit, they are doing an excellent job executing all the head coach Vladimir Jovanovic's instructions.
If they continue in this manner against Krka in Novo Mesto, it's realistic to expect another win with a margin of three or four possessions. Due to the lack of individual quality, Igokea must be aware that they need to approach every game extremely seriously without any room for complacency. Krka has demonstrated their capability to pull off surprises with wins against FMP and Mega, but the precondition for that is if the opponent underestimates them. Igokea has not done that so far, and there's no reason for that to change now. Historically, these two teams have often played games in Novo Mesto with fewer than 155 points, and the current playing style suggests that something similar is likely to happen again.
Zadar-Borac Cacak: Different level of basketball 08/12/23
Although the number of wins in the ABA League could suggest otherwise. Zadar has secured win five times so far, while Borac Cacak has four wins. However, the difference in quality heavily favors the home team. In the previous round, they defeated Cedevita Olimpija at road, and before that, they were close to triumph in Laktasi against Igokea. Reigning MVP Luka Bozic is on track to receive another MVP recognition, averaging 26 points per game, and is nearly impossible to slow down or stop. Even much better teams or defenses than Borac Cacak's have failed in that endeavor.
Alongside Bozic, two crucial components in head coach Danijel Jusup's system are Marko Ramljak and Dario Dreznjak. They excel in taking charge of the defense, and when their three-point shooting is on point, they become pivotal for Zadar. For instance, Ramljak played all 40 minutes against Cedevita Olimpija but scored only two points, attempting just four shots. Nevertheless, his defensive contributions were exceptional.
Borac Cacak is not at the level of Igokea or Cedevita Olimpija, against whom Zadar delivered impressive performances on the road. In front of their home crowd, known as one of the loudest in the ABA League, the host should resolve this clash in their favor without much drama and difficulty. Borac faces issues with three-point shooting, often shooting below 30% from downtown. Although Zadar prefers a fast-paced game, leaving room for the opponent's transition, Borac is a team that will struggle to capitalize significantly on that. In the 5-on-5 positional play, Zadar should dominate and secure a win with at least a three-possession lead.
Mornar-Cedevita Olimpija: It's too early to see the results of the changes made 09/12/23
In the past two weeks, Mornar has shaken up its entire roster. Due to a dreadful start to the season below expectations, they decided to release almost all foreign players and sign new ones. In the last 10 days, Tavian Dunn-Martin, Marcus Weathers, Feron Hunt, Aleksandar Bursac and Uros Lukovic have joined the club. Mornar hopes that these changes will help them avoid relegation from the ABA League, as that would be a catastrophic scenario for a team that has often played in the playoffs of this competition in previous seasons.
Unfortunately for Mornar, this might not be a game where they find success. Although Cedevita Olimpija has had a lackluster performance in the EuroCup, things are different in the ABA League, where they hold a 7-3 record. However, the team from Ljubljana suffered a loss to Zadar in the last round at home and will now aim to get back on the winning track with a convincing triumph. Karlo Matkovic has returned to the lineup after a short absence due to injuries, and Rasid Mahalbasic is also here now, giving head coach Simone Pianigiani more solid options in the paint. Players like Justin Cobbs, Jaka Blazic and Klemen Prepelic possess significant quality, and if Cedevita Olimpija approaches this game correctly, they should secure a comfortable road win.
Additionally, both teams play basketball at an exceptionally fast pace. Mornar concedes 91 points per game, while Cedevita Olimpija scores an average of 83.9 points. This suggests that the visitors have a good chance of scoring over 85 points in this game and ultimately securing a win without much drama. If Cedevita Olimpija's defensive approach isn't at its best, this could also turn into a high-scoring duel with a combined total of over 165 points.
Buducnost-FMP: Potentially the last stop for Nenad Stefanovic 09/12/23
Head coach Nenad Stefanovic has done an exceptional job with FMP in the past two seasons. The club from Zeleznik overachieved twice in the ABA League, but now things don't look good at all, and changes are on the horizon. Even in this campaign, FMP entered with a more than solid roster on paper. Expectations were to be within the top 6 again, but they are currently at 3-7, and it would be a miracle if the number of losses doesn't increase to eight after this game in Podgorica. Most players seem disinterested in defense, and when you concede almost 89 points on average to opponents, positive outcomes are hard to expect. Especially when the offense is not performing at a high level either.
Buducnost too isn't living up to expectations. They assembled one of the most powerful rosters in the last five years, but it seems to be only on paper. Most players have not met expectations, leading to the dismissal of former head coach Petar Mijovic, who was replaced by Andrej Zakelj. The shock therapy did not yield the desired results initially, but as time passes, Buducnost appears more secure. This game is an ideal moment for them to unleash their frustration on an opponent in poor form. Unless FMP finds something we haven't seen in the past two months, Buducnost is likely to win this match with a double-digit margin. Coach Stefanovic might be seeking a new job from next week unless he gets another one last chance in the next week game.
Mega-Crvena Zvezda: Fun game in Belgrade 11/12/23
On one side, we have Mega with many talented players including Nikola Topic, a man projected to be a top 10 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. On the other side, we have EuroLeague participant Crvena Zvezda, currently leading the ABA League. Such matchups always bring a lot of excitement and highlight-reel plays for the audience. Mega has already shown with a win against Partizan that they can surprise much stronger teams, and in a game like this, motivation will not be lacking. That is especially a case for players like Topic, as NBA scouts will be closely monitoring his every move.
For Crvena Zvezda, the absolute goal this season is to win the ABA League. In a situation where their main rival Partizan has already suffered three defeats, they will not have even a fraction of relaxation in any game of the regional competition. Moreover, it won't be surprising if they soon prioritize this competition over the EuroLeague, where they are not performing at their best. Considering the double round of EuroLeague and significant fatigue, Crvena Zvezda surely won't be at 100% fitness, but in the end, they will secure the victory which is the only thing that matters. With their youth and energy, Mega will make this game interesting, perhaps even leading in the second or third quarter, but ultimately there won't be any drama, and the guests will celebrate by at least a three-possession difference.
Partizan-Studentski Centar: Revenge in Stark Arena 11/12/23
After shocking defeats to Mega and Igokea in the ABA League, Partizan has completely changed its approach. Head coach Zeljko Obradovic is no longer taking any risks. In similar matches, he used to give younger players minutes in the first half and then bring in the best ones in the third quarter if things didn't go according to plan. This approach resulted in three losses for Partizan in the ABA League. In the last two rounds, they demolished Borac Cacak and FMP, and they will adopt the same or an even more significant approach now.
Studentski Centar has caused Partizan a lot of trouble in the recent past. They defeated them in the ABA Super Cup final two and a half months ago, and one shot separated the Montenegrin club from eliminating Partizan in the ABA League quarterfinals last season. All of this provides enough motivation and attention for the home team to enter this clash with 100% focus, as was the case in the previous two in this competition. When that happens, the difference is enormous in favor of the black and whites, and this will almost certainly be another win by at least 12 or 13 points. Perhaps even much more.