ABA League – Round 14
Cibona – Borac Cacak: A very even game in Zagreb 28/12/23
It is very likely that the winner will be decided in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Cibona has already exceeded all expectations, holding a four-win lead over the last-placed Mornar, and can approach upcoming games with a significant level of relaxation. Their sole priority is to avoid relegation, and they are on a good path to achieve that. Despite not having great individual talent, they are capable of demolishing opponents with three-point shooting. In their victory against Studentski Centar, they made an incredible 20 three-pointers out of 34 attempts. A similar performance was seen in the last round, where they had 16 out of 27 from downtown in a loss to Cedevita Olimpija. If they maintain such shooting percentages in this game, the guests from Cacak would have no chance. However, even more powerful teams than Cibona cannot sustain such percentages consistently. Borac Cacak is also playing above expectations, and with a win at road against Zadar, they demonstrated their ability to achieve excellent results away from home. Ronaldo Segu is in exceptional form, and with his contribution, Borac has achieved significant success. When he is in form, everything flows much easier in the team's offense. It is certain that they will not come to Zagreb waving a white flag, and they will need a bit of luck for a triumph. They will attempt to achieve success through solid defense, and if they succeed, they can secure another upset. However, Cibona is rightfully a favorite. Yet, the history of both teams' previous matches suggests that we can expect a dramatic encounter.
Krka – FMP: The victory is worth double for both teams 29/12/23 CET 17:00
Both teams are in a battle to avoid relegation. Last-placed Mornar has invested a lot of money recently and may bring in additional players. They will do everything in their power to start a winning streak in the second half of the season. If successful, Krka and FMP could be in danger. Fortunately for them, both teams secured important wins in the last round, and whoever triumphs in this clash will take a huge step toward securing survival. On paper, FMP has a more quality and more expensive roster than Krka. The hosts lack individuals like Vojislav Stojanovic, Hugo Besson or Nate Watson in their roster. However, Krka's current team looks much better than it did a month ago. They signed experienced center Darko Planinic and things improved with the return of Jairus Hamilton, who was injured during October and November. Three-point shooting has been a struggle for Krka this season, lacking players who can consistently hit a large number of threes. Even in the victory against Borac Cacak in the last round, Jan Span made five out of the team's seven three-pointers. Span is their best shooter, and his shots will be crucial for the hosts' triumph in this game as well. One of Krka's advantages is on the bench. Their coach, Gasper Okorn, is considered one of the best Slovenian experts and will undoubtedly have a good game plan. On the other side is the young Stevan Mijovic, for whom this will be his third match coaching FMP and overall his third match at this level of competition. He has a more talented squad than Okorn, but Borac Cacak has even better roster than FMP and they still lost in Novo Mesto. Krka is aware of the importance of this match and knows how much they gain with a win. If they replicate 70% of their performance from the last round, they are likely to celebrate again. Moreover, they outplayed FMP in Zeleznik at the beginning of the season. Still, it is likely that we'll see a lot of ups and downs on both sides, with a lot of lead changes.
Studentski Centar – Split: The hosts will be weakened 29/12/23 CET 19:00
Studentski Centar created a significant sensation in the last round by defeating Buducnost, surprising almost all basketball followers in the ABA League. Studentski Centar is essentially the affiliate team of Buducnost, and at this point, few expected the older brother would allow a defeat. A month ago, Andrej Zakelj left the position of the head coach of this team to take over Buducnost. There has also been a change in the roster. After Kenan Kamenjas finished the game with 26 points and 9 rebounds on Saturday, Buducnost decided to promote him to their ranks. Consequently, Studentski Centar lost their best player in the season so far and will be weakened against Split. A positive aspect for the hosts ahead of this game is that Split also lacks a dominant center, so Studentski Centar should not have defensive problems in the paint. However, they will now have to rely more on their shooting. Players like Aubrey Dawkins, Mateo Dreznjak and Nikola Pavlicevic can shoot at high percentages, but shooting is always an unpredictable category. With players like Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan, Split can play a good game at road. However, Studentski Centar will have a final word in the outcome. They will control the rhythm of the game and likely have a double-digit lead at some point in the third quarter. The question is whether they will then break the opponent's resistance or allow them to make a comeback. Regardless, the most realistic expectation is to see a win for Studentski Centar by at least three possessions.
Zadar – Buducnost: Mine field for visitors 30/12/23 CET 16:00
After Zadar delighted 9,000 fans in the arena by defeating Partizan on Sunday, how to bet against them in this game? Their next opponent is Buducnost, the team that is going through a terrible moment. On paper, the guests from Podgorica have one of the most powerful teams in the last decade in terms of individual talent. But what does it matter when they function as a broken orchestra on the court? The coaching change with Andrej Zakelj has not helped, as he couldn't overcome even the club (Studentski Centar) he successfully led until a month ago. After the defeat on Saturday, Buducnost fans entered the court with the idea of confronting the players. The atmosphere is toxic, and many things need to click and change for them to start winning. Zadar is far behind Buducnost in terms of budget and individual talent. However, they were also miles behind Partizan in that aspect, and that didn't stop them from winning the game. Luka Bozic will likely be the back-to-back MVP of the ABA League. He averages almost 25 points and nine rebounds, with six assists. He is simply unstoppable in one-on-one. When Bozic is double teamed, the opponents risks the shots of other players, and against Partizan, Dario Dreznjak played one of the best games of his career, scoring 25 points (7/10 from three-point range). There is no doubt that in terms of individual quality, Buducnost is superior to Zadar, but the hosts function as a unit on the court. They can play together with their eyes closed, and it has yielded results for two seasons. Buducnost's players behave selfishly on the court, and with such an approach and attitude, they achieve the results they have and they are above expectations. If nothing has changed in the visitors' locker room in these seven days, then Zadar will find it much easier to secure a win here.
Mornar – Partizan: It will be ugly to watch if you are a fan of the hosts 30/12/23 CET 18:00
Because anything other than a convincing win for Partizan would be a huge surprise. Mornar is by far the worst team in the ABA League this season. Despite changing half of the roster due to poor results, they haven't improved. Marcus Weathers seems like a good player, but the rest of the team doesn't seem up to the level of this competition. Mornar will certainly invest more money in the remainder of the season to try to save them, but the chances are slim. This is definitely not a game where they can hope for any success. Moreover, Partizan will be highly motivated not to allow anything similar to what happened in Zadar last week. This is the type of game where Partizan will impose their rhythm from the beginning with a lot of defensive intensity and easy transition points. By halftime, the visitors will likely have a double-digit lead that will constantly grow. It will probably be close to a 20-point lead in the third quarter. In some moments, it could even exceed that, and whether Partizan will win this game by closer to 30 or closer to 20 points will depend solely on the desire of the visitors in the fourth quarter.
Crvena Zvezda – Igokea: Bad moment for the visitors 30/12/23 CET 20:00
Igokea concluded their participation in European competition last week, being eliminated in the FIBA Champions League group stage with six losses in as many games. In the ABA League, the primary goal was to avoid relegation. After 13 rounds, they are at 9-4, and we can say that this goal has already been achieved. Consequently, the club decided to cut costs. Nikola Tanaskovic, Stefan Moody and Nemanja Gordic have left the team, and Zoran Nikolic is expected to follow the same path. Even with Moody on the court in the last round, they lost to Mega by 92:76. Igokea will give more chances to their young players like Ognjen Stankovic, Mihailo Boskovic and Kosta Kondic in the second half of the season. This will likely result in more losses. Especially on this visit to Belgrade, this will be the case. Crvena Zvezda is the best team in the ABA League and takes every match extremely seriously. For them, this will probably be a copy/paste game like against Split in the last round. They will quickly establish a double-digit lead and control it without any problems. The only question here is how much energy Crvena Zvezda will want to save because a double round in the EuroLeague awaits them immediately after this. In any case, a win for the hosts by around 20 points or more is something we should expect to see.
Mega – Cedevita Olimpija: Everything will be different 31/12/23 CET 12:00
Because Nikola Topic is no longer part of Mega. The most talented Serbian basketball player projected to be a top 3 pick in the upcoming NBA draft has returned to Crvena Zvezda and will play for them until the end of the season. Mega has thus lost its best player who was averaging nearly 19 points and seven assists. While Mega still has many super-talented players, Topic was the leader, and it remains uncertain how Mega will look in the first game without him. It will probably take them a few rounds to establish a new hierarchy, and this is an opportunity that Cedevita Olimpija could capitalize on. The club from Ljubljana had a disappointing run in the EuroCup this season. However, they look solid in the ABA League. They are currently in second place with a record of 10-3 and will do everything they can to maintain that position. Justin Cobbs, Jaka Blazic and Karlo Matkovic are three players on whom Cedevita Olimpija's offense heavily relies. All three are capable of scoring over 15 points. The problem is that they can't maintain a high defensive intensity throughout the entire 40 minutes, and this is something head coach Simone Pianigiani will need to work on in the coming period. Nevertheless, Mega is not known for its strong defense either, so this will be a game with a lot of running where the guests could adapt better and secure a crucial win in Belgrade. It won't be easy or particularly convincing, but even a one-point victory is enough for Cedevita Olimpija.