ABA League – Round 15
Igokea – Split: Not the best situation for the hosts
Igokea has lost three consecutive games in the ABA League, and it's not a big surprise. After being eliminated from the FIBA Champions League, the board management decided to cut costs. Stefan Moody, Nikola Tanaskovic, Zoran Nikolic and Nemanja Gordic left the club, making Igokea much weaker than it was a month ago. Moody and Tanaskovic were the top two players, and their departure is strongly felt. Some veterans like Marko Josilo, Dragan Milosavljevic and Marko Jeremic are still there, but Igokea now definitely lacks a playoff-worthy roster on paper. Fortunately, enough wins were secured in the first part of the season to likely be in the top 8 after 26 rounds. Igokea won't have an easy task here either. Split is in good momentum, having defeated Studentski Centar on the road with a buzzer-beater in the last round. That team is considerably more quality than Igokea at the moment. This fact alone suggests that Split comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina motivated and confident in making another upset. Igokea currently lacks players like Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan, who drive Split, but the supporting cast is not at that level. However, Shorter and Sullivan should be enough assurance that the guests will stay competitive until the very end. Igokea might triumph, but it won't be a convincing victory.
Buducnost – Mornar: Derby of desperate teams
Neither of these two teams is playing up to expectations. Buducnost constructed a roster to be the third-best team in the ABA League, with ambitions to go all the way in the EuroCup. They signed several individually excellent players, but as a team, they are entirely dysfunctional. Even a change in the head coach didn't help. Absolutely everything remained the same. Buducnost is currently in the process of shaking up the roster, having recently signed Kenan Kamenjas, Nikola Tanaskovic and Yogi Ferrell, hoping that these moves could change certain things. In any case, a victory against Mornar should not be called into question. Because Mornar is currently by far the worst team in the ABA League, and this is not a game where they can hope for anything. Not only do they have on-court issues, but also off the court. The club president Djordjije Pavicevic was arrested last week, and his brother Mihailo Pavicevic (head coach) had an emotional outburst after the loss to Partizan in the last round. Mornar has changed six players during the season, hoping for better days, but it's not happening. Buducnost is expected to control this game without much trouble, maintaining a double-digit lead consistently. Mornar might get a bit closer in the fourth quarter, but it will be challenging for them to reduce the deficit to single digits here. Even this dysfunctional Buducnost is miles ahead of them.
FMP – Cibona: The Panthers should carry the momentum here as well
FMP has secured two consecutive road wins in the previous two rounds, and now they genuinely play much calmer and more confident. In the last two seasons, they have been a top-six team in the ABA League and had similar expectations this time. However, things started off poorly, leading to some changes. They didn't play exceptionally well against Mornar or Krka, but they found a way to win both games. On their home court, the "Panthers" haven't secured a victory since the end of October, making this an excellent opportunity to change that. Cibona, the weakest team in the ABA League in terms of individual talent, is coming to Zeleznik. Cibona recently lost their only foreign player, Alex Stein, who was dissatisfied with his role in the team and left Zagreb. One of the reasons was also Cibona's significant financial troubles, with players essentially playing without payment. Given these circumstances, it's a miracle they're not at the bottom of the ABA League. Despite achieving some notable victories, it will be tough for them in this away game. FMP is at a much higher level, in good momentum, and realistically, they should control everything. The only question is whether they can control Cibona's three-point shooting. If they succeed, this should be a win by two or three possessions, possibly even a double-digit win. If not, the guests might fight for a dramatic finish.
Cedevita Olimpija – Crvena Zvezda: The guests will leave nothing to chance
This game comes at a time when Cedevita Olimpija is in complete mess. Simone Pianigiani was dismissed just before the trip to Belgrade for the game against Mega. The reason is the dreadful results in the EuroCup and the poor situation in the locker room. Veteran Zoran Dragic was sidelined early in the season, and now with Pianigiani leaving Ljubljana, Cedevita Olimpija has brought Dragic back into the team. The new head coach is Zoran Martic, and he will find it challenging to change much. This team lacks depth, and everything depends on Justin Cobbs and Jaka Blazic. When their shots aren't working, anyone can defeat them. Now, they face the leader of the ABA League, Crvena Zvezda, which has been playing phenomenally and assertively holding the top spot. Although they have a busy week and a double round in the EuroLeague ahead, they are fully aware of the importance of this game. It's true that Cedevita Olimpija tends to put in extra effort when hosting Belgrade clubs. They secured their biggest win of the season against Partizan, but the roster was stronger then. Klemen Prepelic, who was their best player in November, is no longer with the team. Fatigue might be felt by Crvena Zvezda, and the intensity may not be high for the entire 40 minutes, so it's not impossible for the hosts to stay competitive for three quarters. However, when it matters most, the visitors will likely find the energy to secure a win by at least two possessions.
Partizan – Krka: A chance for young players to prove themselves 06/01/24 CET 17:00
Partizan currently faces an exceptionally demanding schedule, playing four games in 10 days in the EuroLeague, with a match against Krka in the ABA League in between. Considering that Krka is one of the weakest teams in the competition, head coach Zeljko Obradovic is likely to rest some of the key players. It's possible that Kevin Punter and Zach LeDay may not see any playing time to ensure they are completely fresh for the challenges ahead in the coming days. Partizan is so dominant compared to Krka that they can defeat them by a double-digit margin even in a situation where young players like Balsa Koprivica, Tristan Vukcevic and Uros Trifunovic spend more than 25 minutes on the court.
In these circumstances, some teams might pose a threat to Partizan, but Krka is unlikely to be one of them. They unbelievably lost to FMP in the last round, having a two-point lead with the ball in hands in the final 10 seconds, but a turnover led to FMP hitting a shot for overtime and ultimately securing the victory. That defeat has surely left mental repercussions on Krka as they remain close to the relegation zone. To have any chance of staying competitive in Belgrade, they'll need to shoot three-pointers at an exceptionally high percentage. Without that, Partizan is expected to win by more than 15 points even without their top players.
Borac Cacak – Mega: The fight for the play-off zone 08/01/24 CET 18:00
Both teams enter this game with a 7-7 record, with realistic chances of securing a spot in the ABA League playoffs this season. However, Borac Cacak comes into this game in better momentum. Ronaldo Segu has been a revelation in the competition, averaging over 17 points per game. The club assembled an excellent roster during the summer. They initially had some rebounding difficulties in the first few games, but those were addressed with the subsequent signing of Danilo Tasic. Their initial goal was to avoid relegation, and that goal has long been achieved. Now they can dream of bigger things, especially if they defeat Mega, which is likely to happen.
Mega no longer has their superstar Nikola Topic, who signed with Crvena Zvezda. Without him, Mega defeated Cedevita Olimpija on Sunday, but the team from Ljubljana was in a poor situation. They traveled without their head coach, so on-court organization was almost non-existent. Stefan Miljenovic scored a combined 49 points in the last two games and could step into the spotlight following Topic's departure. However, Mega remains the most inexperienced team in the ABA League. This is not an easy away game to win. It's challenging to predict the final margin because Mega might have some moments of advantage, but ultimately, the hosts will likely find a way to celebrate.
Zadar – Studentski Centar: Tricky game for the hosts 09/01/24 CET 18:00
Zadar suffered a home loss to Buducnost in the last round, and to make matters worse, they lost Marko Ramljak to injury in the first quarter, who will be sidelined for two weeks. Given their short rotation and the fact that four players spend more than 25 minutes on the court, the impact of any absence is huge. Ramljak, following Luka Bozic and Dario Dreznjak, is a key player in head coach Danijel Jusup's system, and they will face significant challenges in this match.
Studentski Centar is coming to Croatia seeking redemption after a shocking loss to Split. Undoubtedly, they have a more talented team than Zadar and significantly greater depth. Borna Kapusta, who caused problems for Zadar last season while playing for Cibona, is now the point guard for Studentski Centar. Mateo Dreznjak and Aubrey Dawkins are in good form, and the key question here is the defensive intensity the visitors can impose. Both teams are capable of scoring a high number of points and have offensive potential, but with much greater depth, Studentski Centar could stay close until the end and might even pull off an upset. If they could defeat Buducnost at road, they certainly have a chance against Zadar.