ABA League – Round 20
Cedevita Olimpija – FMP: The difference in quality is too big
10/02/24 CET 16:00
Despite all the issues they've faced this season, Cedevita Olimpija remains a much more quality team than FMP. In the ABA League, they have a home record of 9-1, with their only loss coming against Zadar. They've even managed to defeat EuroLeague teams like Partizan and Crvena Zvezda, so they shouldn't struggle against one of the league's weakest teams like FMP. It's realistic to expect them to control this game from start to finish and secure a win with at least a three-possession difference. A few days ago, they lost Karlo Matkovic who went in the NBA, but they should have Alen Omic as a more than solid alternative.
FMP did secure a crucial win in the last round against Igokea, but Igokea is currently a weak team based on their roster, so it wasn't a significant surprise. To win against Cedevita Olimpija on the road, FMP would have to play at a level we haven't seen from them this season. They changed their head coach again last week, but that isn't the main issue. Simply put, they lack quality this season and must accept the fact that they won't be part of the playoffs this year.
Split – Buducnost: It will be an electrified atmosphere
10/02/24 CET 18:00
In the last round of the ABA league, Split achieved a historic win over Partizan on the road for the first time in over 30 years. Undoubtedly, it was the most significant surprise in the entire competition this season. Thanks to this win, they greatly improved their chances of qualifying for the playoffs. They would come even closer to that goal if they could pull off another upset, with the support of a packed arena. After such a triumph in Belgrade, everyone in Split is eager to witness this game against Buducnost, and Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan undoubtedly have the quality to lead their team to victory.
The only challenge is that Buducnost is currently playing its best basketball of the season. They demolished Crvena Zvezda in the previous round and achieved some good results in the EuroCup as well. Head coach Andrej Zakelj has finally shaped the team the way he wants, and Buducnost looks powerful. Due to Partizan's failures, they have the opportunity to finish the regular season in second place, but they must win games like this one in Split. With greater quality and excellent form, they will be in control. The opponent is not easy to defeat, but Buducnost's current form gives them reason to believe in success. While Split has secured significant wins in the last two months, their quality doesn't place them among the top 8 teams in the ABA League, while Buducnost is the third-best, and that should come to the fore in this matchup.
Cibona – Krka: The battle for avoiding relegation
10/02/24 CET 20:00
This game holds extremely significant importance for both teams. When the season began, Cibona and Krka were considered the two weakest teams in terms of individual quality. After 19 rounds, the club from Zagreb is in a better position in the standings. However, Cibona has lost four consecutive games and is not in good form. Fortunately for them, everything could change if they triumph in this round. A win would mean having three more wins and a better head-to-head record than Krka, de facto securing their goal of avoiding relegation.
On the other hand, Krka is not in a good situation after a tough loss to Studentski Centar. Despite having a better head-to-head record than Mornar, the team from Bar has signed several new players in the last two months, making them look much more competitive than they were in the first half of the season. It seems that Krka will need to win some road games towards the end to escape the last place, and they won't have an easier away game than this one in Zagreb. However, they will need to shoot exceptionally well from beyond the arc. Otherwise, their chances are very slim.
The truth is that these are the two weakest teams in the ABA League, and in such a situation, any outcome is possible. Nevertheless, based on what has been seen so far this season, Cibona has left a much better impression and seems to be the better team in all respective aspects. Krka will certainly look for their chance here, hoping for an off night from the hosts, which is not impossible. However, if both teams play as they have in the previous 19 rounds, Cibona is likely to emerge as the winner, probably even without drama in the closing moments.
Mega – Mornar: Possession control is likely to make a difference
11/02/24 CET 11:00
Mega is currently facing three consecutive losses in the ABA League, but they've had a tough schedule, playing against three top 5 teams in the competition. Now, they are expected to be favorites, and it's realistic for them to secure a triumph. However, the challenge for Mega is that they are by far the youngest team in the ABA League, leading to a significant number of ups and downs during the match. For instance, they suffered a home loss to Krka earlier in the season, which is the weakest team in the competition. This calls for caution, emphasizing that they cannot automatically assume win against any opponent. Nevertheless, the fact remains that they are more talented than Mornar.
The club from Bar made significant changes in December, bringing in six new players, and it has yielded positive results. Since then, they have won three games and lost a couple of matches by a narrow margin. It seems they are on track to avoid relegation. However, they have a weaker head-to-head record than Krka, meaning they must remain cautious. For Mornar, securing a win on the road, where it might seem unrealistic, would be of immense importance, and facing Mega is one such challenging scenario. Mornar possesses individual quality to compete with the hosts, but they often struggle to find effective solutions in offense. To defeat Mega, they would need to shoot exceptionally well from beyond the arc and control possessions wisely, which isn't a characteristic of this team. It's more realistic that Mega imposes their rhythm and capitalizes on it. If the game unfolds as expected, Mega should likely celebrate a victory by a margin ranging between seven and fifteen points.
Igokea – Partizan: The guests will actually be the hosts
11/02/24 CET 16:00
When Partizan visits Igokea in Laktasi, they essentially plays on its home court. In a arena with a capacity of around 3,000 seats, more than 2,500 people will be rooting for Partizan. This is always the case because the club from Belgrade has a huge fan base in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which cannot be said for Igokea, who lacks a traditional fan group and is followed by around 500 to 1,000 people. This situation always generates extra motivation for Partizan, and they always strive to return to fans and achieve a significant win in Laktasi. After the debacle against Split, head coach Zeljko Obradovic apologized to the fans and emphasized that it was the lowest point for his club. He also said that he hopes it will never happen again, and when the most decorated European coach in the history of basketball says that, you can believe it will be so.
Igokea suffered a convincing defeat against FMP in the last round. This is not surprising because they have lost five players in the last 40 days, and they haven't signed replacements. They gave up on this season the moment they were eliminated from the FIBA Champions League. They have certain financial problems and have assessed that it's better to reduce investments and settle for a place in the ABA League playoffs, which they will likely secure due to their results from October and November. In this situation, it's not realistic for them to threaten Partizan in any way, and an easy double-digit win for the guests should be expected, with a real possibility that at some point the difference could be over 15 or 20 points.
Crvena Zvezda – Zadar: All but one scenario will be a surprise. 11/02/24 CET 18:00
And that's a double-digit win for the hosts. Crvena Zvezda shockingly lost at home to Zadar last season, and they have surely learned not to underestimate their opponents. Earlier this season, they had no issues when traveling to Croatia for a match against the same rival. The red and whites suffered a convincing defeat against Buducnost in the previous round, fully aware that another loss would jeopardize their first-place position in this competition. They definitely do not want that to be the case, and it is realistic for them to control the game from start to finish.
Zadar is in good momentum, securing the fifth spot in the ABA League. Considering Igokea's significant decline, it is more than realistic for the Croatian club to maintain its current position. While they may not have great depth in the roster, the starting five plays exceptionally well, and at times, it seems like they can play with their eyes closed. Luka Bozic, Dario Dreznjak, Marko Ramljak and Karlo Zganec have a phenomenal connection and know how to cause problems even for stronger opponents when underestimated. This happened in Ljubljana when they surprised Cedevita Olimpija and also against Partizan at home. Crvena Zvezda is well aware of all this, and if they approach the game with the right mindset, they won't allow any issues and should win this game with a double-digit margin. It's likely to go even beyond 15 points for a significant part of the game.
Studentski Centar – Borac Cacak: It doesn't look like it will be upset
12/02/24 CET 20:00
At this moment, Studentski Centar appears to be a much better team than Borac Cacak. In the last round, they dominated Krka on the road, and before that, they defeated Cedevita Olimpija. On paper, the hosts have a top 6 team in the ABA League, and that's the position they are aiming for. A potential victory here would bring them a step closer to securing a spot in the playoffs, and they will certainly not lack motivation.
Borac Cacak performed better than expected in the first half of the season, but now they are showing the kind of performances that are more realistic. On paper, they have one of the weaker teams in the competition and struggle especially with three-point shooting. To win against Studentski Centar on the road, they would need to reach the level they displayed in October and November, which they haven't shown for the past two months. Everything currently indicates that the hosts will win this game with at least a two or three-possession difference, without much drama in the final moments.