ABA League – Round 21
Zadar – Split: Confidence is priceless (01/03/24 CET 18:00)
Split has not won a trophy in 20 years, and this season seemed like an opportunity for change. They have the most talented roster in Croatia, with players like Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan performing exceptionally well. Even role players like Tonko Vuko, Mate Kalajzic and Toni Perkovic contribute significantly. When they secured the host of the Croatian Cup Final Eight, it appeared that the trophy would go to "The Yellows." However, Zadar had a different plan. The draw paired these two teams in the quarterfinals of that competition, and Split was left disappointed again. They lost 80:73 two weeks ago, and when they had a two-point lead in the fourth quarter, they simply got scared. Eliminating Zadar would have opened the path to the trophy, but the opponent's confidence prevailed.
Zadar are the reigning Croatian champions, having also won the national cup lately, and they find the right solutions in crunch time always. Luka Bozic is one of the most dominant players in regional basketball, choosing to stay in Zadar instead of moving to Partizan last summer, where he would have been a bench player. His decision seems justified, as he averages 21.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in the ABA League and is likely to be the back-to-back MVP. In the mentioned game against Split in the Croatian Cup, Lovro Mazalin was excellent, and Dario Dreznjak and Marko Ramljak consistently perform well in their 3-and-D roles.
All these factors lead to the conclusion that Zadar enters this match as the favorite. They will play in front of their home fans, aiming to maintain the fifth position until the end of the regular season, providing them a good chance against Cedevita Olimpija in the ABA League quarterfinals. While Split is also chasing a postseason spot, it seems that Zadar has the upper hand in this game. Although the guests will be highly motivated to seek revenge, they need to overcome their demons and fears, which doesn't seem likely based on their recent performances.
FMP – Borac Cacak: Hard to predict, but upward trajectory favors the hosts (02/03/24 CET 18:00)
FMP will do everything in its power to quickly forget this season. Despite being one of the top six clubs in regional basketball for several years, nothing went according to plan this time. Three coaches and many players were changed to avoid the worst-case scenario, and it seems they succeeded. Mornar and Krka are in worse positions than them, and it's not realistic for FMP to finish below the 12th position on the table. Allowing 84.9 points per game is too much for this level of competition. The recent signing of Ognjen Kuzmic will bring toughness under the hoop with his EuroLeague experience, and Vojislav Stojanovic has already established himself as one of the leaders. The only positive for FMP is that their roster cannot perform worse than what they have shown so far.
Borac Cacak played exceptionally well and above expectations during October and November. However, it was clear even then that maintaining that level throughout the season would be very challenging. They lack depth and heavily depend on their foreign player. Ronaldo Segu, Tylan Birts, and Javon Franklin make the difference, but they are now scouted better than at the beginning of the season when they were unknown. Borac Cacak will undoubtedly be satisfied with what they have achieved so far, so the advantage is on FMP's side in this game. They have an upward trajectory, and it's realistic for them to present a better performance. It wouldn't even be a huge surprise if the hosts win this without any uncertainty or drama in the finish. However, some caution is necessary because FMP has not earned boundless trust throughout the season.
Krka – Mega: One of the last chances for the hosts (03/03/24 CET 16:00)
Krka is in a very difficult situation six rounds before the end of the ABA League. They have an identical record (with a better head-to-head) as Mornar, indicating a dramatic finish about who will finish last and drop to the lower rank. Considering everything, Krka can even be satisfied with four wins because they have more wins than the quality of their play suggests. They probably don't even know how they won at road against FMP and Mega, as those are the only two games in which they left a good impression throughout the season. Almost every aspect of this team's game had many ups and downs. For a part of the season, they couldn't secure defensive rebounds, which improved with the signing of Darko Planinic. In many matches, they couldn't hit anything from a distance, although they have Jan Span, one of the few capable of hitting multiple three-pointers. Isaiah Cousins was signed to be the team's leader, but he is anything but one of the top three players. Head coach Gasper Okorn faced many obstacles and problems in the past six months, and everything points to this club finishing last.
This game is definitely one of the last chances for Krka. Apart from this match, they can seek a win when Split visits them. In the remaining four games, they will be huge underdogs. Yet, Mega is more than a dangerous team. Nikola Djurisic has attracted the interest of some EuroLeague teams, and he is expected to make a significant career leap in the summer. Omercan Ilyasoglu is one of the most talented Turkish basketball players, and center Uros Plavsic brings toughness under the hoop. Since Nikola Topic signed for Crvena Zvezda, Stefan Miljenovic has been given more opportunities and has fully justified it. Mega is the youngest team in the ABA League, leading to many ups and downs, which is why they lost to Krka at home earlier in the season. However, they can run in transition and score more easy points. They will find a way to get easier baskets, and it will all come down to three-point shooting percentages. If Krka doesn't dominate significantly in that aspect, it will be a real surprise if Mega doesn't secure the victory. Simply put, they are a much more quality team.
Partizan – Cedevita Olimpija: It shouldn't, but it could be interesting (03/03/24 CET 17:45)
For some inexplicable reason, Partizan always struggles against Cedevita Olimpija, even though they are considered a significant favorite on paper each time, as is the case now. Six out of the last nine matches have ended in favor of the Ljubljana-based club, and they are sure to arrive in Belgrade unburdened and without pressure. Partizan has long been aware that they won't finish first in the ABA League regular season, but now there is also a fear of ending up in third place. This would significantly complicate their path to the title, as they would face Buducnost in the semifinals, and the club from Podgorica rarely loses at home in the postseason in the last decade.
For all these reasons, it is realistic to expect a very serious approach from Partizan. Before the international break, they were in a major crisis, unexpectedly losing several games. Head coach Zeljko Obradovic even had a highly emotional address at a press conference, and it is expected that the team will receive massive support from the fans. This game could serve as a boost in form, and Cedevita Olimpija seems to be the ideal opponent at this moment. If we set aside the historical struggles and the recent poor head-to-head record, it would be truly shocking if Partizan doesn't win this game by a double-digit margin. In many ABA League games, coach Obradovic has been known to use his key players less, but be assured that this won't be the case now. Kevin Punter, Zach LeDay, and other starters are expected to spend more than 20 minutes on the court.
Mornar – Crvena Zvezda: Two complete opposites (03/03/24 CET 20:00)
This will be a clash between the best and the worst team in the ABA League this season. Crvena Zvezda is currently leading the ABA League and is on an excellent path to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Due to their challenging situation in the EuroLeague, the red and whites has shifted their complete focus to the regional competition and will undoubtedly approach this match seriously. Rokas Giedraitis has been playing exceptionally well for several months, Luka Mitrovic is returning to form from the beginning of the season, and Nemanja Nedovic will likely get more playing time to reach his peak for the crucial period of the season in May.
Mornar has significantly improved their position after changing half of their roster in December, but this simply isn't a match where they can hope for anything. Crvena Zvezda is on an incomparably higher level, and it would be a first-class surprise if they don't secure a double-digit victory. The hosts might manage to keep one or two quarters competitive, relying heavily on three-point shooting. When that falters, the visitors will pull away to a double-digit lead, maintaining it until the end of the game.
Buducnost – Igokea: The only question is what the final score will be
(04/03/24 CET 18:00)
It is highly likely that Buducnost will secure the most convincing victory in the ABA League Round 21. The question remains about the final score, but it is likely to be no less than 15 or 20 points. Igokea is currently in a pathetic state. In the previous ABA League round, they were crushed by Partizan at home with a score of 52:98, and following that, they suffered one of the heaviest defeats in the last decade. They were shockingly eliminated in the national cup semifinals by Bosna Sarajevo with a score of 86:69, playing their worst basketball in a long time.
All of this is not surprising given that, in the past few months, they parted ways with six players who had significant roles, and no replacements were signed. Igokea simply gave up on the season after being eliminated from the FIBA Champions League. The board management assessed that it was better to reduce investments and save money for the next year since they avoided relegation from the ABA League, knowing that they wouldn't go further than the quarterfinals even if they retained all players. While this decision makes sense from a club perspective, it contradicts the principles of sportsmanship. Now they are sitting ducks in games against serious teams, and Buducnost falls into that category. The outcome will depend on the motivation of the home team. It is possible that they settle for a win between 10 and 20 points without exerting more energy than necessary. However, if they are motivated, it could look very ugly for the guests.
Cibona – Studentski Centar: The match is more important for the visitors (05/03/24 CET 18:00)
Cibona demolished Krka by 91:63 in the previous round, marking their seventh victory in the ABA League this season and solidifying their status. They have avoided relegation and can play the remaining six games without pressure. In theory, Krka and Mornar can still finish ahead of them in the standings, but in practice, it's almost unthinkable for either of those two teams to reach seven wins, let alone both. This season has been a continuation of the struggles for Cibona for years. They have the smallest budget in the competition, players are not regularly paid, and frequent coaching changes occur due to challenging working conditions. Nevertheless, the main goal has been achieved, and the primary task is to stabilize the situation over the summer. A few days ago, they lost Domagoj Vukovic, who terminated his collaboration due to financial reasons.
On the other hand, Studentski Centar must win this game if they want to qualify for the ABA League playoffs. They are currently in eighth place, with Split closely behind. The Podgorica club currently has three consecutive victories, and it's entirely realistic for this positive trend to continue in the Croatian capital. Cibona lacks players like Aubrey Dawkins, and it's paradoxical that they don't have talented Croatians who are good enough, such as Borna Kapusta, Mateo Dreznjak or Tomislav Ivisic on the other side. All three mentioned players will be highly motivated, as every Croatian player wants to leave a good impression when playing in the Drazen Petrovic Hall. It might not be a convincing win, but the edge is in favor of the visitors here.