ABA League – Round 22

Zadar – Igokea: It is hard to imagine a surprising outcome (07/03/23 CET 17:00)
Igokea came very close to pulling off the biggest surprise of the entire season in the ABA League. They were on the verge of shocking Buducnost in Podgorica but fell short. The hosts underestimated them, allowing Igokea to establish an early double-digit lead, which kept them in contention until the very end. Following that game, another player left the club. Edin Atic signed with San Pablo Burgos, becoming the seventh player to depart Igokea in the last two months. After their elimination from the FIBA Champions League, board management allowed all players to seek new clubs to ease the budget. Still, they occasionally pulling off surprises.

However, it's challenging to believe that any surprises will occur in Zadar. The hosts dominated Split in the last round, a team currently more formidable than Igokea. Unlike Buducnost, Zadar won't underestimate Igokea. The atmosphere in the "Kresimir Cosic" arena is always intense, and it's realistic to expect complete control from the home team from start to finish. If there's no complacency, Igokea is likely to lose by more than 10 points. They exceeded expectations in Podgorica, but achieving that two times in a row, especially now without Atic, will be difficult.

Split – Mornar: A very important game (08/03/23 CET 17:00)
Split is still in the race for the top 8 and a playoff spot in the ABA League. To achieve that, they'll need to win at least three, possibly four of their remaining five games. The easiest on paper appears to be the one against Mornar. In the previous round, Split played poorly in an away game against Zadar and will now try to bounce back. The elimination in the Croatian Cup quarterfinals against the same Zadar has left a significant mark, as the club had expected to go all the way and lift the trophy. Now, they must reset their thoughts and get back on track to salvage the season. Since the return of Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan to the club, Split has secured several victories at home, and they likely aim to add another here.

Mornar is facing a challenging battle to avoid relegation. They are at the bottom of the table with five rounds to go, and their direct rival Krka holds a better head-to-head record. This is a nightmare scenario for the club from Bar, which has never been in this situation in the past decade. They had a few playoff appearances in the ABA League and were accustomed to being in the upper part of the table. However, this time, errors made in assembling the team have come back to haunt them. Even the six-player changes in December did little to improve their situation. Tavian Dunn-Martin and Marcus Weathers brought scoring, and Uros Lukovic added strength under the basket. However, the team as a whole struggles with defense, resulting in losing all 10 away games in the ABA League this season. Given this information, it's challenging to believe they can overcome Split.

Although this game is equally important for both clubs, Split holds the keys. If they limit transition opportunities for Mornar and control the game's pace, they will have the advantage. The guests will attempt to surprise with a high three-point shooting percentage and take a step toward survival, but it's much more realistic for them to try this in the upcoming games played in front of their home fans in Bar. Expect a Split victory by at least three possessions.

Cedevita Olimpija – Buducnost: A game that will have a big impact on the table (09/03/23 CET 17:00)
Cedevita Olimpija defeated Buducnost in Podgorica earlier in the season, and a victory here would give them an excellent chance to finish within the top 3 in the ABA League. They have no particularly tough matchups left until the end of the season, unlike Buducnost. Cedevita Olimpija heavily relies on their three-point shooting, as demonstrated with an impressive 14 three-pointers against Partizan, despite losing by eight points. The departure of Karlo Matkovic has been compensated by signing Alen Omic, and the core of the team includes Jaka Blazic and Justin Cobbs. Cedevita Olimpija will do everything they can to accelerate the pace and try to defeat Buducnost in a similar fashion as they did three and a half months ago.

However, the fact remains that the individual quality is on the side of the visitors. They have significantly improved their game since Andrej Zakelj became the head coach and made some player changes. Kenan Kamenjas and Yogi Ferrell are undoubtedly upgrades compared to JaCorey Williams and Colbey Ross, at least based on their performances in Buducnost jerseys. The issue with this team is that they don't consistently perform at their maximum concentration level, as evidenced in the previous game against Igokea. Despite being more than 20 points better than Igokea, they struggled until the last moment because they underestimated their opponent. This is unlikely to be the case in Ljubljana, but changing such habits is challenging.

Considering both teams play with many ups and downs and lack consistency, predicting the outcome is extremely difficult. Cedevita Olimpija has the edge solely because they are the home team, having defeated Crvena Zvezda and Partizan on their home court this season, both of which are better teams than Buducnost. It's highly likely that the game will be dramatic until the end, but the minimal edge should be with the hosts.

Crvena Zvezda – Krka: They are not the same league (10/03/23 CET 18:00)
Analysing this game is relatively straightforward. Crvena Zvezda is the best team in the ABA League this season and will have the home-court advantage throughout the entire playoffs. They hold a perfect 10-0 record on their home floor, having defeated teams like Zadar 93:54, FMP 87:54, and Borac Cacak 90:74 in previous games – all of which are significantly stronger than Krka. This implies that the only question here is the margin by which the hosts will want to celebrate. In the last round, Crvena Zvezda defeated Mornar by 102:66 on the road, a team on a similar level to Krka.

Krka is in a very challenging situation but still ahead of Mornar in the standings. It would be wisest for them to spare key players significant minutes, as this is the type of game where victory for them means avoiding injuries. From a basketball perspective, it's impossible for them to compete with Crvena Zvezda as these teams are not in the same league. Some of Crvena Zvezda's weakest players earn more on a monthly basis than all Krka players combined. The most realistic scenario is that the hosts win by a margin between 25 and 35 points, but depending on their approach – this could be 15 or even 45 points difference. It's safest to assume that they will play at a high tempo in the first half, likely resulting in a double-digit lead after 20 minutes of play.

Studentski Centar – FMP: Clash of two bad defenses (11/03/23 CET 16:00)
Studentski Centar missed a significant opportunity in the previous round of the ABA League. Despite being favorites against Cibona in Zagreb, they played pathetically on the defensive end. This has become a common occurrence lately, allowing the opponents easy points at the rim, and it's evident they are completely uninterested in that side of the court. Offensively, they looked decent, with Aubrey Dawkins and Borna Kapusta shooting well, but what good is that when they allowed 94 points to the opponent.

A fortunate circumstance for Studentski Centar is that FMP is coming to visit, a team that also performs poorly in defense. The guests have improved their defensive numbers lately since Sasa Nikitovic became the head coach, but they've also had an easy schedule, which has influenced their defensive performance. FMP is currently in a comfortable position, seemingly avoiding relegation, and can approach the final part of the season with peace of mind. Studentski Centar aims to be part of the playoffs, and for that, they must win this game. The defensive engagement on either side is unlikely to be notably high, and Studentski Centar definitely has more offensive quality. This should be decisive for them to secure a win by at least two possessions difference in a high-scoring game with more than 165 points.

Borac Cacak – Partizan: There will be no drama (11/03/23 CET 18:00)
This will be a basketball spectacle in Cacak. Most of the fans in the arena will support Partizan, as is always the case when the club plays anywhere in Serbia. Additionally, Partizan has a strong connection to Cacak and has a huge fan base there. Head coach Zeljko Obradovic was born in that city and took his first basketball steps in the arena where the game will be played. For him, this is always an emotional experience, and there is no doubt that the black and whites will not take it lightly. Partizan is still trying to secure the second spot in the ABA League, which would undoubtedly ease their path to the finals and their pursuit of the title, which is their primary goal.

Borac Cacak is in very poor form, having lost four consecutive games, which is not surprising. They were the biggest overachievers of the ABA League during October and November when they secured crucial victories to stay in the competition. Last season, they narrowly avoided relegation to a lower tier, and this time they started their preparations very early, helping them achieve their goals. With no pressure on them, they can enjoy the game, but it's unlikely they will pose a significant threat to a team like Partizan. This is a match where all participants will enjoy, and the guests will likely take a double-digit victory back to Belgrade.

Mega – Cibona: Solidifying positions (11/03/23 CET 20:00)
This is one of the rare games in the ABA League where neither team has significant pressure to secure a victory. Mega's main goal is player development, as the club's owner is the most renowned basketball agent in Europe, Misko Raznatovic. When it comes to results, the only thing that matters is avoiding relegation. This has already been achieved, and participation in the playoffs would be a bonus, but not an obligation. In support of this, in January, they allowed their best player Nikola Topic to join Crvena Zvezda, opening up more opportunities for players like Stefan Miljenovic and Nikola Djurisic.

Cibona's ambitions are different. They have been facing severe financial crisis for several years, and the question is whether the club will exist in 12 months. In such circumstances, avoiding relegation in the ABA League seems like a huge achievement, and they have managed to do it again. Their players are acting like true warriors, fighting to save the club. They have done their part, and Cibona won't finish last. Now, the board management must secure better conditions for the next year. Given that they have no pressure here, the question is how ambitious they will be now that their primary goal has been achieved.

For all these reasons, predicting the winner is challenging. Mega has greater quality and an advantage in playing faster and in a more transitional style than Cibona. Although the club doesn't have ambitious results, the players surely want to be part of the playoffs. This is probably why it's most realistic that the hosts win by at least six or seven points. Nevertheless, this is one of the games where it's not wise to invest money.