ABA League, Round 25
Zadar – FMP: State of urgency for hosts
In the previous round of the ABA League, Zadar lost to Borac Cacak away from home, but it wasn't a huge surprise. They were without Marko Ramljak and Karlo Zganec, and when you play without two starters, it's difficult to achieve a road win. Especially for Zadar, who play with a very short rotation. The situation should be different in this round as both Ramljak and Zganec are expected to be in the lineup. On the other hand, FMP played their best match of the season and secured a victory against Buducnost. Although it doesn't change their situation much in the standings, it certainly boosted team morale.
In this game, all the key factors are in favor of Zadar. They are still fighting for the fourth position, which brings home-court advantage in the ABA League quarterfinals. FMP has secured avoiding relegation and can play in Croatia without any pressure. The quality is also completely on the side of the home team. Luka Bozic wasn't at his recognizable level against Borac Cacak, and it's not realistic for him to have two poorly shooting games in a row. His shooting percentages are much better when Zadar plays at home, and we believe it will be the same this time. Another flirtation with a triple-double from him and a Zadar victory by at least two or three possessions is the most realistic outcome.
Krka – Cedevita Olimpija: Local derbies always bring out the best
Krka and Cedevita Olimpija are the two most successful teams from Slovenia, with Cedevita Olimpija holding a much stronger position. After their win against Mornar, they regained the fourth position and will do everything they can to keep it in order to have home-court advantage in the ABA League quarterfinals. Jaka Blazic played one of the best games of the season and came very close to achieving a triple-double, while Alen Omic shined brightly, dominating the battles under the basket. In this game, it will be extremely important for the visitors that their strong center once again prevails in the battle against Krka's centers.
Although currently at the bottom of the ABA League standings, Krka still has a chance to avoid the last position as they hold a better head-to-head record against Mornar. However, they need to win their remaining two games. It's hard to believe in such a scenario after everything we've seen from them in the past months. Even when they dominate the rebounds, as was the case against Split, they fail to capitalize on it. Simply put, they lack individual quality and hardly anyone is able to take responsibility. In such a situation, it's difficult to imagine them posing a threat to Cedevita Olimpija. Although the visitors from Ljubljana can have bad nights, even if that were the case, they should still be able to defeat Krka by at least three possessions difference without any drama in the final minutes.
Mornar – Borac Cacak: A great chance for the hosts
Mornar has faced many challenges this season, but they have somehow came close to avoid relegation to a lower rank. In case they defeat Borac Cacak, they will likely mathematically secure at least the 13th position, ensuring their safety. Throughout the season, Mornar has made numerous changes to their roster, which have had a positive effect. Players like Tavian Dunn-Martin and Marcus Weathers have had several outstanding games and have often been instrumental in home victories. Although Mornar has not won any games away from home this season, it seems that it will not be necessary as Krka is weaker and does not appear likely to reverse positions on the table.
On the other hand, Borac Cacak showed signs of improvement in the last round of the ABA League by defeating Zadar. Although they had a long streak of consecutive losses, it's true that they faced a very tough schedule. They were close against Partizan for a long time in the fourth quarter, and it was about time for luck to smile upon them. This was evident in their win against Zadar, and now they travel to Bar with a lot of optimism. Unlike Mornar, for whom this is the most important match of the season, Borac Cacak does not have a particular imperative. It has long been clear that they cannot make it to the ABA League playoffs, and in such a state, it's hard to believe that we will see an impressive performance from them as visitors. Mornar has won four out of their last five home games, and this trend is likely to continue.
Cibona – Igokea: A tough game to predict
Cibona continued to defy expectations last week by defeating Split, which came as a huge surprise. In a game where Split desperately needed a win, the visitors from Zagreb came and spoiled the party. One must truly acknowledge everything that the players of Cibona have achieved this season. Half of the team couldn't even register for the Croatian League due to financial problems, effectively splitting the squad between those who play ABA League andthose who are competing in the Croatian League. In the last two months, three players have left due to receiving other offers, and more departures are expected. Head coach Dino Repesa has done a tremendous job, and his team will undoubtedly be prepared once again.
Predicting what to expect from Igokea is also very challenging. Unlike Cibona, which lacks the funds to retain its players, Igokea allowed half of its roster to leave in December after being eliminated from the FIBA Champions League. They have won only three out of their last 13 matches in the ABA League, but they still hold a position that leads to the playoffs. There is no doubt that the players and head coach Vladimir Jovanovic want to make it to the postseason, even though the board management doesn't seem overly concerned about it. This game is a clash between two clubs whose management wants the season to end as soon as possible to focus on plans for the next year. In such circumstances, predicting the outcome is almost impossible. Igokea undoubtedly has greater individual quality, and this game holds greater significance for them, but Cibona appears to perform better on the court.
Mega – Split: The transition game will make the difference
Mega made one of the biggest surprises in the ABA League this season by defeating Crvena Zvezda in the last round. For the first time in history, they emerged victorious against Crvena Zvezda in this competition. Stefan Miljenovic and Andrija Jelavic once again showed impressive performances, but Nikola Djurisic and Uros Plavsic also played crucial roles in the team. Additionally, the super-talented Turkish player Omercan Ilyasoglu has been contributing significantly. These five players currently lead Mega, and the young head coach Marko Barac has extended his contract, showcasing his remarkable talent over the past two years at the helm of the Belgrade club.
Split suffered a major setback after their defeat against Cibona. A victory in that match would have brought them one step closer to the long-awaited appearance in the ABA League playoffs, but they disappointed their fans. Supporters found it challenging to accept the loss and called for the board management to dismiss head coach Slaven Rimac. Despite this, Rimac remains in his position, although he doesn't seem capable of motivating his players. Split boasts good individual quality this season, with players like Shannon Shorter, Lewis Sullivan, DJ Funderburk and the promising young talent Vito Kucic. However, they sometimes lack leadership on the court.
Regarding this game, Mega is undoubtedly the favorite. Not only do they have more talented players, but they are also capable of playing a much faster style of basketball compared to Split, which will make the difference. The only chance for the visitors is to slow down the tempo to the maximum and draw their opponents into as many 5-on-5 organized possessions as possible. However, Mega has shown that they can impose their rhythm even against much weaker teams than Split, so another victory for them in the ABA League should be expected. It might not be a very convincing win, but they should secure victory by at least five points in the end.
Buducnost – Partizan: All eyes will be on this game
This game will be one of the most important in the entire ABA League regular season. The winner will climb to the second spot and will have the home-court advantage in the semifinals, where Buducnost and Partizan will almost certainly face off again. Buducnost has been undefeated in this competition for several months and they have been playing phenomenally. The best proof of this was their convincing win against Crvena Zvezda. However, it's impossible to maintain that level consistently, as seen clearly in their loss to FMP last week. They had terrible shooting percentages from beyond the arc, and apart from McKinley Wright, no one else seemed to be in good mood.
Partizan will definitely try to capitalize on Buducnost's slight downturn. Although this game comes at a time when the black and whites has much more significant challenges in the EuroLeague, it doesn't change the fact that Zeljko Obradovic's team will put in maximum effort to triumph. Games in Podgorica always bring great tension and hostility in the stands. Without a doubt, it will be the same this time, and apart from facing the opponent on the court, Partizan players will have to withstand immense pressure from the home crowd. If they succeed, they will be closer to win because realistically, they have much higher quality than Buducnost.
Partizan's problem is that they haven't shone on many road games this season. They lost to Crvena Zvezda, Cedevita Olimpija, Zadar and Mega, giving them a 0-4 record at road against teams from the top 6 of the ABA League. This is a statistic that raises doubts about Partizan's capabilities when they don't have a large army of supporters behind them. This is definitely a quite unpredictable game that can go in any direction. Considering that Partizan has a much more expensive team, more powerful individuals, and a head coach like Zeljko Obradovic, expectations are that they will win this crucial match. However, it's hard to believe in something until you see it, and Partizan hasn't shown that they can play equally well at home and away this season.
Crvena Zvezda – Studentski Centar: Twice would be too much
Crvena Zvezda suffered a shocking defeat to Mega in the ABA League, but it hasn't affected their situation. They are still in first place and will have a home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. The game against Mega showed how difficult it is to predict the mood of a team when playing a game of no significance. This will be the case again now because for Crvena Zvezda, a win or a loss doesn't make a big difference since they have a sufficient lead ahead of Buducnost and Partizan in the standings.
However, this Crvena Zvezda team possesses enough character to prevent embarrassment for the club. Losing to Mega can happen once, but two consecutive losses would be a big problem for Ioannis Sfairopoulos' team, primarily in terms of confidence. Studentski Centar is a good team and they will come to Belgrade with the ambition to take a crucial step towards the playoffs with a victory. However, the quality is on the side of the hosts, and we believe they won't allow shocking losses two times in a row. How convincing the win will be depends on the attitude of the hosts, which is impossible to predict. If this match were played two months ago when it still meant something for Crvena Zvezda, the difference would likely have been more than 15 points. That's the realistic gap between these clubs.