ABA League – Round 26
Cibona – Cedevita Olimpija: Impossible to read
This is a game that's almost impossible to predict. Cedevita Olimpija lost to Krka in the last round, which was definitely a big surprise. This loss cost them the fourth spot in the ABA League, and it seems they won't have home-court advantage in the quarterfinals. The impression is that most players don't care much about that, and it seems like everyone is just waiting for the season to end. Since Simone Pianigiani was fired, it's clear to everyone that this project has failed, and during the summer, the club will be searching for a new head coach to start something new.
Cibona is thrilled to have avoided relegation this season. Considering that the club operates more like an amateur than a professional one, nine victories are a phenomenal success. Although Cedevita Olimpija is still playing for something and have higher individual quality, it's more realistic that Cibona's players will be more motivated. This is the last match of the season in the ABA League, and since many of them are not even registered for the Croatian League due to financial problems, this will be their last game in Cibona's jersey for this season. Some of them, like Domagoj Proleta and Matej Bosnjak, will be particularly inspired. Cibona has caused many surprises this season, and it wouldn't be too shocking if they closed the season in such a manner with another big win.
Studentski Centar – Buducnost: Is there fair play?
This match will be closely followed in the ABA League final round. Studentski Centar is a affiliated club of Buducnost, and one of the goals of that club is to develop young players so that someday they can wear the jersey of the biggest club in Podgorica. During the season, even Andrej Zakelj took over Buducnost, although the competition started as the head coach of Studentski Centar. He brought starting center Kenan Kamenjas with him, so it's important to know the connection between the two clubs.
However, although Buducnost is usually much more concerned about results, Studentski Centar didn't let the older brother defeat them without a fight. On the contrary! Studentski Centar leads 3-0 in the head-to-head this season, which is a paradox. They defeated Buducnost in the Montenegrin Cup final, the ABA Super Cup semifinals, and earlier in the ABA League regular season. It's not exactly normal for the affiliated club to win, but it's obvious that fair play exists and that there is no easing up. However, it wouldn't surprise anyone if Buducnost isn't too interested in this game.
After the loss to Partizan, it's clear that Buducnost will finish the regular season in third place regardless of how this game ends. On the other hand, Studentski Centar needs a win to confirm the eighth position and entry into the playoffs. In such circumstances, the players of Studentski Centar should be much more motivated to achieve victory. After all, even if there were no background regarding the relationship between the clubs, Studentski Centar has won all three matches this season against Buducnost, and they definitely have the edge this time even though Buducnost is much superior in terms of individual quality. It won't be a surprise if Buducnost rests a few players.
Igokea – Mega: The tradition should continue
Mega has won six of the last seven road games against Igokea in the ABA League. For some reason, they love to play in Laktasi, and this will probably be the first time in the history of these teams' duels that Mega is much superior in terms of individual quality and form. Marko Barac's team has been playing phenomenally lately and with six consecutive wins they cemented their fourth place. Mega needs win here to secure home-court advantage in the ABA League quarterfinals, and they should be expected to be very motivated. Nikola Djurisic and Stefan Miljenovic are shining. Both are even on the radar of some EuroLeague teams and will surely be the driving force of their team once again.
Igokea managed to qualify for the ABA League playoffs with a victory against Cibona, and they will definitely play against Partizan in the quarterfinals. There is no possibility for their position to change, meaning they won't have a huge motivation. Mega's unofficial owner, Misko Raznatovic, is the most famous basketball agent in Europe, and many clubs in the ABA League work closely with him. Igokea is among those with very close connections, and it is very possible that we won't see a strong effort from the hosts because Mega certainly wouldn't be pleased if Igokea defeated them in a meaningless match for them. Even if everything is in the spirit of fair play, the guests simply play much better, and it is realistic that they triumph here without drama in the end.
Borac Cacak – Krka: It's not a meaningless game for the hosts
If you look at the ABA League table, you will see that Borac Cacak is safe, while Krka needs a victory to avoid relegation from the competition. However, that's an illusion and a deception. According to the current rules of the ABA League, no country can have more than five clubs, and Serbia currently has that many. If a club from that country wins the Second ABA League, which is likely because the top three teams are from Serbia (Spartak, Vojvodina and Zlatibor), they would play a best-of-three play-out against the lowest-ranked club from Serbia in the ABA League. Although there are rumors that the ABA League will expand to 16 clubs and that the number of clubs from the same country will increase to six, it's not official yet. Therefore, Borac Cacak will be extremely motivated to avoid getting into an awkward position.
Krka has definitely underperformed in this campaign. They achieved their biggest win of the season in the last round, but it seems a bit too late. They will try in Cacak to make an upset and hope for Mornar's defeat in Zeleznik because they have a better head-to-head record, but it doesn't seem like they have the weapons to outplay Borac at this moment. The hosts cannot afford to lose due to the reasons explained earlier because in that case, FMP would likely surpass them in the table and potentially jeopardize their place in the ABA League next season. Borac Cacak has higher individual quality than Krka, they are capable of playing at a much faster pace, and they shoot better. Three-point shooting will be the main weapon for the visitors, but it's hard to achieve much that way. The most realistic outcome is a home team win by at least six or seven points.
FMP – Mornar: It could be an important game for both teams
FMP will most likely approach this game extremely seriously for the reasons mentioned in the Borac Cacak-Krka analysis. The lowest-ranked club from Serbia could easily lose its place in the ABA League next season, and the hosts should do everything they can to triumph here and hope for positive news from Cacak. However, the problem is that this game is played after the Borac Cacak-Krka match, so both FMP and Mornar will know exactly before the start whether they even need a victory at all or not.
At one point, it seemed like there was no chance for FMP to catch up to Borac in the standings, but with wins against Buducnost and Zadar, they have given themselves a chance. They don't control everything in their hands, but if Krka were to shock Borac Cacak, FMP would definitely be highly motivated. On the other hand, Mornar is one step ahead of the Slovenian club in the battle to avoid relegation. They too will know whether they are safe before tip-off. If Borac Cacak lives up to expectations and outplays Krka, then FMP and Mornar can play a relaxed game without any pressure. FMP wouldn't have a chance to surpass Borac Cacak, nor would Mornar risk sliding to 14th place. If, by any chance, Krka were to triumph, then we would see a fierce battle in which FMP would probably win without any problems.
Split – Crvena Zvezda: It will most likely be an exhibition game
The importance of this game will be decided by the Studentski Centar-Buducnost game, which will be played two days earlier. If Studentski Centar triumphs, they will clinch the eighth spot and secure a playoff berth in the ABA League. If Buducnost were to win, then Split would have a chance to occupy the last remaining seat in the playoffs with a win. Crvena Zvezda confirmed the first place in the last round and will have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. For them, the only thing that matters is to avoid injuries, and it's very likely that many of their top players like Milos Teodosic won't even travel to Croatia for this match.
It's certain that Split will be more motivated in any scenario. If, by any chance, Buducnost were to win, then we would see a full arena in Split doing everything it can to push its players towards the eighth position in the table. Even if that's not the case, the fact that a EuroLeague team like Crvena Zvezda is visiting should be a lure for the audience to show up in the arena. Split certainly has the quality to make this match interesting and to stay close until the very end. If Buducnost were to open up a chance for them to make it to the playoffs, it wouldn't be unthinkable for them to outplay the much more powerful opponent from Belgrade.
Partizan – Zadar: The hosts will not play with their reputation
Although Partizan has secured the second spot in the ABA League before the start of the playoffs, they definitely won't approach this match differently. It's true that head coach Zeljko Obradovic might rest some individuals like Kevin Punter and James Nunnally to avoid risking any injuries before a much more important EuroLeague game against Valencia a few days later. However, despite that, the black and whites are huge favorites. They have enough quality players in the roster so that whoever is on the court can make a difference.
For Zadar, this game could be significant, but they will only know that after the other matches of the ABA League 26th round are played. If Cedevita Olimpija were to lose to Cibona, Zadar would jump to fifth place with a win in Belgrade. And if both Cedevita Olimpija and Mega were to lose, then Zadar could even be fourth because they have the best tiebreaker if three teams have the same number of wins. If that's not the case (if both Mega and Cedevita Olimpija win) and if this match is of no importance for Zadar, their head coach Danijel Jusup might play it safe by resting his best player Luka Bozic and some other starters. Marko Ramljak and Karlo Zganec have recently had injury problems, and no risk is necessary in an unimportant match. In any case and scenario, Partizan will probably win by a double-digit margin. If the match is of no significance for Zadar, it could be even more convincing.