AdmiralBet ABA League, Round 23

Mornar – Igokea

15 Mar 2024, 18:00 CET

D-day for the hosts

Anything other than a win will be a tragic outcome for Mornar. They are at the bottom of the ABA League due to a worse head-to-head record than Krka, and it is essential for them to have at least one more victory than the Slovenian club after 26 rounds. Mornar has significantly improved its roster throughout the season. If they had Tavian Dunn-Martin and Marcus Weathers from the first round, they probably wouldn't be in this situation. Thanks to them, they have achieved three out of four victories in this competition, and much will depend on them now. All of Mornar's wins have been at home, and it's a fact that they play with much more inspiration in Bar.
The opponent in this round is ideal for Mornar because Igokea is currently one of the weakest teams in the competition in terms of individual quality. This roster is nowhere near similar to the one three months ago when players like Stefan Moody, Zoran Nikolic, Nemanja Gordic, Edin Atic and Nikola Tanaskovic were still there. With them, Igokea had a team capable of being within the top 5 in the ABA League. However, the board management decided to part ways with all of them to save costs since the primary goal has been achieved, which is avoiding relegation.
All of this indicates that this is a game that Mornar simply cannot afford to lose. At this moment, they have greater individual quality than Igokea, they are playing at home, and the match is incomparably more important for them. Nothing has been easy for Mornar this season, so this game probably won't be either. But in the end, they should find a way to triumph, probably without too much drama in the final moments.

Zadar – Cedevita Olimpija

16 Mar 2024, 17:00 CET

The battle for the fourth position

The team that wins this game will be in the fourth position in the ABA League after the 23rd round. It's almost certain that these two clubs will face each other in the quarterfinals of this competition. The only question is who will have the home-court advantage, and that could be decided now. Zadar is one of the two teams that have defeated Cedevita Olimpija in Ljubljana this season in the ABA League. In that game in the Slovenian capital, Klemen Prepelic and Karlo Matkovic were still members of Cedevita Olimpija, so the team that will play againstZadar is not at the level of the former team that lost.

All of this indicates that Zadar has a lot to hope for in this game. Overall, Cedevita Olimpija has greater individual quality, but the best player on the court will be Luka Bozic. Against Igokea, he recorded another double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds, continuing to improve his candidacy for back-to-back MVP award in the ABA League. Marko Ramljak missed that match due to injury, but he will be in the team against Cedevita Olimpija, which is a huge boost for the hosts. Bozic is by far the most important player, but Dario Dreznjak and Marko Ramljak are doing many crucial things on both ends of the court.

Zadar's advantage in this game will be the home court, given the fanatical atmosphere created by their supporters. The better momentum is also on the side of the hosts, as well as the motivation to surpass Cedevita Olimpija in the standings. The guests will heavily rely on their three-point shooting once again, and the outcome of the match will depend on how successful they are. We might see a lot of lead changes and ups and downs on both sides, but the edge is on Zadar side.

Buducnost – Borac Cacak

16 Mar 2024, 19:00 CET

Last year's game is still in the memory

These two teams played a memorable game in Podgorica last season. Borac Cacak needed a win to avoid relegation, and they spectacularly achieved it in the final round of the ABA League. That defeat completely shook Buducnost, as the then-head coach Vlade Jovanovic was immediately fired, and they suffered a debacle against Crvena Zvezda in the ABA League semifinals. The situation is quite different now as Borac Cacak doesn't face the same uncertainty as twelve months ago, and it seems that the game is coming at a more crucial moment for the hosts.

Buducnost still holds the second spot in the ABA League, ensuring home-court advantage in the semifinals, and their goal is to maintain that position. They secured an important winagainst Cedevita Olimpija and will be a massive favorite in this game. They have the quality to defeat Borac Cacak by more than 15 points, but the key lies in their approach. A few weeks ago, they had a dismissive start against Igokea, allowing the significant underdog to gain a double-digit lead early in the first quarter. In the end, Buducnost almost suffered a loss, which would have been the biggest surprise of the season. Having learned from that lesson, they should approach this game seriously from the beginning. If that's the case, a double-digit victory should not be in question.

Partizan – FMP

16 Mar 2024, 21:00 CET

Always a special motive for the hosts

There is only one club that Partizan and their fans hate as much as Crvena Zvezda, and that is FMP. The animosity is immense, and the black and whites always plays with special motivation and a desire for a convincing win. In recent encounters, they haven't succeeded in achieving that always, but now they will have the opportunity. FMP is one of the weakest teams in this competition, and luck is a significant factor in why they are not positioned even worse. They managed to defeat Krka and Mornar in the last moments on the road, and if that hadn't happened, they would be the last-placed team in the ABA League.

Partizan will undoubtedly feel significant fatigue after the trip to Barcelona and the EuroLeague game on Thursday. However, that's precisely why they have 15 players at their disposal, and head coach Zeljko Obradovic will surely know how to distribute minutes wisely. Although there is a double round in the EuroLeague ahead of the black and whites, those on the court will undoubtedly be motivated, mostly the domestic players. They are much more aware than the foreign players of the animosity between Partizan and FMP, and they certainly won't settle for just a victory but will try to humiliate their rivals. Considering the quality difference, anything less than a home win by a margin of 15 points or more would be a surprise.

Mega – Studentski Centar

17 Mar 2024, 12:00 CET

Small things will make a difference

This is a game that is almost impossible to predict in advance. The teams are almost evenly matched in terms of quality and have very similar characteristics. This means that the decisive factor will be who performs better on the given day. The game is scheduled for 12:00 CET on Sunday, a time slot in which Mega often plays. Although it may seem trivial, it can be one of the factors favoring the home team. Both teams are in a good position to be part of the ABA League playoffs; it remains to be seen from which position.
Mega will certainly try to play as much in transition as they usually do. This is a playing style preferred by both Mega and Studentski Centar. It guarantees a lot of possessions in the game, quick solutions, and many three-point attempts. If the shooting percentages are not extremely poor, it's likely that we'll see more than 160 or even more than 165 points. The home team might have a slight advantage in the low post since Studentski Centar lacks players like Uros Plavsic and Andrija Jelavic in the frontcourt, but at the same time, Mega doesn't have the experience that Borna Kapusta and Aubrey Dawkins bring to the visitors' backcourt. The small details and minor factors will make the difference; that's the only certainty.

Cibona – Crvena Zvezda

17 Mar 2024, 18:00 CET

The past will not repeat itself

Cibona pulled off the biggest surprise last season in the ABA League when they defeated Crvena Zvezda at home. In doing so, the Belgrade club shockingly lost the top spot on the table and the home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Given their 3-2 loss to Partizan in the finals with no breaks, it can be concluded that the defeat in Zagreb ultimately decided the season. Crvena Zvezda has not forgotten this, as demonstrated by their convincing 84:56 victory over Cibona a few months ago. They will undoubtedly be motivated to triumph in the same way once again.

Discussing the quality of both teams is unnecessary. Crvena Zvezda is the best team in the ABA League this season and currently the top favorite to win the title, while Cibona has the smallest budget in the entire competition. This is a David versus Goliath matchup. Cibona's chances are almost non-existent, and they will need a miracle – the kind of miracle that happened 12 months ago. Crvena Zvezda has shifted its focus entirely from the EuroLeague to the ABA League and will be highly motivated. Anything other than a guests victory by a double-digit margin would be a surprise, and the lead is likely to grow, possibly exceeding 20 points at some point in the game.

Krka – Split

18 Mar 2024, 18:00 CET

The stakes are the highest possible

Krka is currently on a four-game losing streak in the ABA League, but they still have decent chances to avoid relegation. Their better head-to-head record against Mornar is definitely in their favor, but they will need to win at least two, and perhaps even three more games by the end of the season. Mornar has two relatively easy games that everyone expects them to win, and Krka will have to do the same. This match against Split is the easiest one Krka will have until the end of the season, and if they can't secure a victory here, they are likely headed back to the Second ABA League next year.

Split also has something to play for. Their main goal this season was to qualify for the ABA League quarterfinals, and they still have a chance to achieve that. They have a favorable schedule remaining, but they must defeat Krka on the road. Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan are players capable of playing impressively and scoring over 15 points each. This duo has been crucial for some of Split's significant victories this season. Without their contribution, the task becomes much more challenging.

The advantage for Krka is that, on paper, this should be an easier game compared to the ones they lost against Studentski Centar and Mega at home. Teams that play in transition don't suit Krka well due to their lack of physical predisposition to keep up with the pace. Split is different – they prefer a slower rhythm and a 5-on-5 game. In such a scenario, Krka could have a much better chance for success. This won't be a beautiful game to watch, and we might not see many points. The stakes are high, and it will likely reflect in shooting percentages on both sides. Split is the favorite with more individual quality, but for Krka, this is a final, and they will play like it. Expect them to give their all in this game, and a dramatic finish is more than probable. Nothing can be taken lightly here.