Atp 1000 Madrid - Day 5
Bautista R. Kachanov K.
Bautista is playing at a good level and has racked up a good number of victories between Barcelona and Madrid, mainly thanks to excellent consistency in serving and solid groundstrokes. Playing so far behind the baseline, he needs to be in great physical shape to perform at his best, and I believe that after so many matches, he might struggle against the powerful shots of his opponent, especially on serve. Kachanov, in my opinion, is clearly the favorite, and unless the Russian makes significant errors, it could be a tough match for Bautista.
De Minaur A. Nadal R.
A rematch of their match in Barcelona, which saw De Minaur emerge victorious. On these faster surfaces, he is even more favored in my opinion. Unfortunately, De Minaur's physical condition currently surpasses that of Nadal, who himself has admitted to feeling less than stellar.
Well, facing an opponent like the Australian who pushes you to your limits could make Nadal struggle again. It might be the case because Nadal is a phenomenon and will try to fight until the end, but I think he might eventually succumb.
Kotov P. Thompson J.
Kotov is a very atypical player, without a preferred shot, although his backhand shows more consistency than his serve and forehand. He tends to trouble opponents with his ball rotation and changes of pace. Thompson, on the other hand, relies more on his serve and forehand, and despite not favoring these courts, he is having his best season yet and defeated an expert on the surface like Munar in Barcelona. There could be a match, and especially a great battle, where the eventual winner will be the one with better physical endurance.
Lehecka J. Medjedovic H.
Lehecka has shown a phenomenal improvement compared to last year, proving he can compete with the best in the world. However, clay is not his preferred surface, and his continuous physical issues could be significant variables, especially against an opponent who knows the surface well but has already spent a lot of time on the court. Lehecka's powerful groundstrokes are his strengths, but his service might suffer due to the timing of his match. Still, watch out for Medjedovic, who tends to perform better as the underdog. Lehecka is the favorite, but I believe there could still be a tough match, especially early on.
Norrie C. Fonseca J.
Norrie comes from a defeat in the second round of Barcelona against Etcheverry, where he conceded a lot during crucial moments, ultimately losing the match. His serve has been particularly faulty, with poor service percentages, making him vulnerable to opponents' attacks. On the other hand, Fonseca will play without pressure and being an aggressive player, he will try to trouble Norrie, especially on the backhand side. Despite what the rankings might suggest, this match is anything but guaranteed, and I would even argue that the favorite is Fonseca.
Paul T. Klein L.
Paul returns after a month and an ankle injury, which could significantly affect his performance, especially in lateral movements forced by his opponent. His service percentages will be crucial for setting up points with his forehand. Klein, on the other hand, is playing great tennis, but I think if Paul has fully recovered, Klein doesn't stand much chance. However, especially in the first set, there could be opportunities for Klein given Paul's absence from the courts.
Etcheverry T.M. Shapovalov D.
Etcheverry, a pure clay player with high trajectories that often disrupt opponents' rhythm, comes from an excellent semifinal in Barcelona. Shapovalov, who was almost out of the tournament, managed to win it, but will that victory be beneficial for him? He's a complete player with powerful shots, especially on serve, but sometimes he overplays, loses focus, and exits matches mentally. This could be an interesting match, with Shapovalov having the potential to win if he's in the right mindset.
Auger Aliassime F. Mannarino A.
Auger Aliassime once again won in a comeback, overturning the match against Nishioka. After a shaky first set, he found his rhythm, especially with his serve and backhand. Mannarino, on the other hand, has never liked this surface where his shots lack penetration, and his movement suffers. However, Auger seems to be struggling to start matches lately, often conceding his first service game. Could he turn it around and make the match more enjoyable this time?
Cachin P. Tiafoe F.
Cachin showed that he's very competitive on the Madrid clay, especially with his serve and forehand, even when behind. Tiafoe, similarly, regained some form in Houston but showed weaknesses in the final, suggesting more mental than physical issues. Last year, Cachin won 2-0 here, could history repeat itself?
Dimitrov G. Mensilk J.
As expected on this fast surface, Mensilk proved to be a challenging opponent, especially with his serve and heavy groundstrokes. Dimitrov, on the other hand, is not in his favorite conditions, but he's still a top-class player who will likely vary his game to disrupt Mensilk's rhythm. Both are strong servers, so a match with many games and at least one tie-break is not unlikely.
Rudd C. Kacemanovic M.
After his splendid victory in Barcelona and the Monte Carlo final, Rudd might feel the fatigue of two intense weeks on the slightly faster Madrid clay. Kacemanovic, especially with his service from the ad side, might trouble Rudd, who could struggle with the pace and variations. Rudd is definitely favored, but Kacemanovic's service percentages will be crucial. I wouldn't consider this match closed from the start.
Machac T. Shelton B.
Machac is a versatile player, quick on his feet with a powerful forehand, though sometimes mistiming shots. Shelton, after winning in Houston, moves to the European clay, which he doesn't favor. His serve, forehand, and volleys are his most effective weapons, and given Machac's suboptimal physical condition, Shelton could capitalize. Nonetheless, this match could be entertaining, perhaps with at least one tie-break.