LNH DIVISION 1 - Round 11

CHAMBERY SAVOIE HANDBALL – FENIX TOULOUSE HANDBALL 24/11/23 20:00 CET

Hodzic Harun still decisive?

Indeed, Chambéry goalkeeper Harun Hodzic fooled us last weekend with his 19 saves at 46% efficiency. His exploits single-handedly thwarted the Chartraine attack. But he'll have to repeat a performance of this calibre if he's to give the Toulouse team any trouble. Danijel Andjelkovic's players are putting in a string of good performances. The latest of these was a masterful display against Ivry, punctuated by a comprehensive 8-goal victory. Their third place in the standings is no mistake.
We should see Toulouse string together crosses in the central sector with plenty of depth and continuity. They'll be exploiting the difficulties of linking tasks after duels with the low No. 3s to make the most of their players' qualities. We're still waiting for a great Ayyoub Abdi, the future Nantais scorer, to express his qualities as a duelist and long-distance shooter. Paturel and co. should find themselves in trouble with the continuity of Toulousain's game. However, we'll have to be careful that Hodzic doesn't repeat his exploits of the previous week on pure 6m duels.
On the other side of the pitch, despite their victory, Chambéri's attack is still struggling with its shooters. It's up to Erick Mathé to restore the confidence of his backline or transform the Chambéri game. Perhaps it would be a good idea to exclude the interlocking moves to put the scorers in a favourable condition, and stick to interlocking or reading moves, leading to a series of runs with depth.
The Toulousian defense puts a lot of depth into the central sector, but manages the pivot underneath very well. Chambéry should be careful not to force the pivot into play. The latter should turn his position gain to find triangular plays with the outside backs.
With all these comments, we can still see a controlled Toulousian victory, with a minimum 6-goal gap and Nemanja Ilic the top scorer thanks to the counter-attacks offered by his defense and by the 7m against an undisciplined team.

DUNKERQUE HANDBALL GRAND LITTORAL – DIJON MÉTROPOLE HANDBALL 24/11/23 20:00 CET

Continuity for Dunkerque.

Dunkerque are coming off a fine performance against Rennes which has put them back in the standings. They are now 11th, but thanks to this weekend's performance should be in the bottom half of the league.
For the moment, Dijon's defensive plan is identical to that of the other teams, but with weaknesses in all areas. They're fighting hard. But they should think about surprising by accepting that they are inferior and need subterfuge to be able to create exploits. The time is right again, with Dunkerque struggling in a solid 1-5 defense. Cesson had understood this and initiated it, but strangely didn't maintain it over time, despite the success of this one. Will Ulrich Chaduteaud move in this direction and put a Jules Lignières up front to exploit his offensive qualities later on? We'll see at the weekend.
However, we're expecting a match without too much suspense at the Stade des Flandres.
Despite their small squad, the quality of their center-half Jean Loup Faustin should enable Dunkerque to win easily, with a 7-goal margin at the end.

US CRÉTEIL HANDBALL– P.M. C’CHARTRES MÉTROPOLE HANDBALL 24/11/23 20:30 CET

Suspense in the air.

Chartres' inconsistency could well do Créteil good. The Eurelians are coming off a frustrating game. They had plenty of options, but came up against a great Chambéry goalkeeper. Vanja Ilic is coming off an extremely disappointing performance and will have to make amends. Yvan Vérin had an interesting game, in which he was able to express his dueling qualities, but was unable to be effective with his shooting or his final passes. Unfortunately, he has trouble releasing good balls and should be a weapon for Créteil.
As for Chartres, we're not seeing a totally cohesive team, and this is clearly reflected in our defense. We're not getting much help from each other, and not always at the right time. If Créteil manage to string together two or three attacking moves, they can really find themselves alone 6 meters out or facing an isolated player.
It's hard to say who will emerge victorious from this confrontation.
We think that the Cristoliens' high defense with a lot of intent should give Chartres' attack a hard time. It's up to them to create depth and right- wing intent on most of the Chartres full-backs, and to tighten things up around Yvan Vérin. Kudinov and Onufriyenko's criss-crossing runs shouldn't cause any problems for the Chartres defense.
We therefore expect a very tight match from start to finish, which could end in a draw, but in which we still think Créteil will make the difference in the dying moments by a goal or two.

LIMOGES HAND 87 – CESSON RENNES MÉTROPOLE HB 24/11/23 20:00 CET

The match will be played with discipline.

Two undisciplined teams clash. Both in the game and in the penalties conceded. Cesson, the league's worst attack, is likely to find itself in further trouble against Limoges' hard-hitting defense. Even if they are, sometimes too much so, as in the case of Timmy Petit, who is often punished. Wingers Angel Fernandez and Dragan Gajic should therefore be able to take advantage of a few counter-attacks as the match progresses to make the difference. But why? Quite simply, this destructive defense results in either ball recovery or easy shots for their goalkeepers, who then have to throw the ball back to their counter-attackers.
What's more, Sébastien Leriche's team seem to be lacking in confidence. Roles don't seem to be well established, with a lot of rotations during the match, creating difficulties in timing the 2-a-side relationships needed at this level. Added to this are the goalkeepers who have been struggling since the start of the season, which means that Cesson's wingers can't get easy goals either.
From the outside, it's going to be important to make choices, even if it means leaving players on the bench for the whole match.
We think that Cesson will come out of this spiral in a few weeks' time and give the Limoges team a hard time in the future. But right now, even if Limoges' play isn't yet fluid, we see them winning with a small safety margin of at least 4 goals.

HBC NANTES – SARAN LOIRET HB 24/11/23 20:30 CET

How to survive in the H Arena.

Despite their injuries, Nantes continue to perform well. Indeed, the depth of Nantes' bench and formation means that the team can always find the resources to regularize their level of play. With Ovnicek injured and Minne essentially left on the bench for the last match, it was Lucas De la Bretèche who was able to express himself in Nîmes. Despite having less impact than his team-mates in the post, Nantes' game maintains all its fluidity and tactical precision.
For this weekend's match against Saran, the speed and verticality of Nantes' game should put the Saran folds to the test. Adrien Ramond, for all his attacking prowess, will have to come off the bench to make way for a quality defender, which will make it difficult for Saran's backline to make the obligatory defensive switch. Unless Fabien Courtial makes another choice to avoid this problem.
Despite the Nantes defense's difficulties in controlling the pivot on the outside, its collective mastery, thanks to Halgrimsson's saves, should make all the difference as the match progresses. The wingers should have a field day with their counter-attacks, and the Nantais' fast, relentless waves should leave Saran breathless as the game progresses.
We therefore see an easy Nantes victory taking shape over the course of the match, and a massive lead of at least 10 goals as Saran drops back and makes less of an effort in the defensive rearguard. Nantes should finish the match at around 35 goals.

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN HANDBALL – MONTPELLIER HANDBALL 26/11/23 19:00 CET

A first small final.

As David Ballaguer said in an interview during the last match, here's a first small final for the title of French champion this weekend. Watch out for these matches. Remember last year, when Montpellier won their league match against PSG by 13 goals, but lost by the same margin the following week against the same Parisians.
Both teams were playing in the middle of a marathon between the Champions League and the league championship.
Unfortunately for Montpellier this year, we can't see PSG faltering. Physical density and bench depth should make all the difference. Of course, Patrice Canayer will have concocted a recipe to try and outwit the Parisians. It's easy to see how they could use a lot of depth on the right to keep the danger from full-backs like Elohim Prandi at bay. But this would open the door to Luc Steins, as explosive and decisive as ever. A remaining 1-5 in front of Steins could be a solution, but could open up space for the twirling Dane Jacob Holm. And if the height isn't high enough, it will open up relations with the immense Kamil Syprzak, with his size (207 cm) and his efficiency on the pivot. The Montpellier defense is therefore unlikely to thwart the Parisian attack. On the other hand, the MHB attack, with its series of criss-crossing duels with a small-sized backline, can cause problems for the Parisian defence's series of tasks. But the lack of depth on Montpellier's current bench should see them run out of steam as the match progresses, leaving PSG to win with a fine margin of safety. The only point that could tip the balance would be the goalkeepers. But right now, no one in either team is really making a difference. So we're expecting PSG to win by at least 6 goals, with at least 32 to their name.

SAINT RAPHAËL VHB – USAM NÎMES GARD 25/11/23 20:00 CET

Two different dynamics.

Saint Raphaël are in good spirits after their draw in Montpellier against a Nîmes team who have struggled in recent weeks and have now lost 5 games in a row. Saint Raphaël should make the most of the duels between the defensive No.2s, which is where the problem lies for the Gardois. Indeed, their central defense with Acquevillo Tobie and Dupuy is rather effective, but the tightness of the No.2s combined with the work of the No.1s means that they are unable to block the shifts they create. Combined with technical weaknesses in pure duels, the Raphaëllois should exploit these weaknesses through Sergio Perez and José Marquez, the two center-halves who have been in fine form of late. They are also sometimes teamed up to break down opposing defences.
Why doesn't Nîmes use the same principle with center-halves Jesper Konradsson and Boïba Sissoko? This could be a weapon for beating the Saint Raphaël defense, but it's rarely used by Yann Balmossière. However, it is a weapon that can be used to exploit Raphaël's difficulties when faced with lively, dynamic players. We saw this last week against Montpellier left-back Bryan Monte. Obviously, we'll need to adjust our defensive rotation management to ensure we don't lose the quality on the other side of the pitch.
Without this choice, we don't see the Gardois making a difference against the physical density of Adrien Di Panda's defense.
We therefore expect Saint Raphaël to win by a 5-goal margin. The verticality of Nîmes' game has not yet been rediscovered.