Championship, Round 44
Leicester-WBA (24/04/24, 12:30 CET)
Amid transfer rumors – Sevilla reportedly eyeing Enzo Maresca in the summer, per tabloids – and repeated stumbles – 3 losses in the last 5: Leicester, away at Plymouth, surrenders the lead and suffers a second consecutive 1-0 defeat, risking their direct promotion hopes. "Our destiny is still in our hands," the coach tries to stay positive, while local media point fingers at "continuous undeserved chances then wasted." Indeed, the top trio seems to suffer from a fear of winning – 5 losses in the last 9 games, including Leeds and Ipswich – and it doesn't help that their next opponent is WBA. The Albion also comes off a 1-0 loss to Sunderland, marred by a numerical disadvantage and the law of averages: previously, they had gone 10 games without a loss. "We didn't deserve this either," regrets Mr. Corberan: "Now we want to secure the playoff spot as soon as possible." A slippery match awaits at the King’s Power Stadium: it's hard to favor Leicester given recent results, but they've been resilient at home while WBA has won only one of their last 5 away games. Regardless, mutual setbacks suggest a medium to low-scoring affair.
Cardiff-Southampton
Three slaps in the face at Millwall's home, after two consecutive away victories and the feeling of finishing the season on a high. "We can still improve our position: I don't want to talk about the transfer market," coach Bulut cuts short, after reports from Turkey link him to Besiktas. The Welsh side has nothing left to ask from their campaign – 59 points, 11th place – but the locker room aims to stay focused. Especially since Southampton arrives at the City Stadium in excellent form: 3 consecutive wins, including a 3-0 victory over Preston in the rescheduled match, remarkably reopening the direct promotion discussion for the Saints. In less than ten days, Armstrong and his teammates have recovered 8 points on Leeds, 7 on Ipswich, and 6 on Leicester: now, the second place is virtually just two lengths away. "A fantastic week," Russell Martin doesn't hide his joy: "The dynamics of the Premier League chase have changed, but we mustn't falter at Cardiff." Heavy points are at stake for the visitors, tasked with controlling the game and imposing the attacking style that made them the Championship's second-best scoring team (84 goals scored): prospects point to an away win with a medium to high scoreline.
Huddersfield-Swansea
Huddersfield is kicking themselves, robbed by a 99th-minute penalty at Bristol's home (1-1) after a match played with great authority. "We can't change a totally wrong refereeing decision," analyzes Mr. Breitenreiter, "but we must treasure a performance that gives us great confidence for the final three games." Huddersfield is currently relegated (44 points), but the fourth-bottom position is within reach, and much will be decided in the next two matches at John Smith’s Stadium against Swansea and Birmingham. Especially the first game could tilt the scales in favor of the hosts since the Welsh side is mathematically safe 9 points above. However, they have quality and have responded solidly to a poor spring spell with 2 wins without conceding in the last 2: "I'm excited about the work awaiting us in the summer," looks ahead Mr. Williams. Taking the field with a light heart will be a double-edged sword for the white and blues, making the prediction uncertain. However, don't expect high-scoring games: no more than 2 goals in the last 5 encounters between the two teams and in Swansea's last 4 away games.
Norwich-Bristol
A late goal by Gabriel Sara seals the deal for Norwich as they triumph over Preston (0-1), making a crucial step towards the playoffs. "Everything is in our hands: we must keep winning," appeals David Wagner, though he remains wary of Bristol's competitive energy. The Robins, at 58 points, lie comfortably in mid-table but come off five consecutive positive results, adding depth to their end-of-season run-in. "An important streak, achieved with balance and sacrifice," smiles manager Manning after the hard-fought 1-1 draw against Huddersfield. Bristol hasn't conceded in their last two away matches, but facing Norwich at Carrow Road will be tough. The Canaries boast an impressive eight consecutive home wins, fueled by the performances of Sargent and Sara, who are in top form. Expectations are high for the hosts to secure their ninth consecutive victory one way or another.
Rotherham-Birmingham
A masterpiece when least expected: Birmingham plays the game of the year and crushes the more fancied Coventry away (3-0), shaking up the relegation battle. The +1 cushion above the relegation zone calls for caution, and at home, the Blues prefer to let their game do the talking. But Gary Rowett, now interim manager until the end of the season, has been recovering important players in the last few days – especially in defense, with Roberts returning – and is poised not to miss the golden opportunity before his squad. Birmingham indeed visits the struggling Rotherham, who have scored in only one of their last nine games but continue to put up a fight. The pressure is all on the visitors, who must be cautious of Rotherham's long balls on the counter. While Rotherham aims to finish strong at home, failing to secure three points for Birmingham at this stage would feel like a missed opportunity. Trust is placed in those with greater motivation.
Stoke-Plymouth
A back-and-forth in the second half sees Stoke come away unscathed from the challenging trip to Sheffield (1-1): a draw that suits the Potters well as they now face another crucial showdown against Plymouth. "They'll be fired up to play against their former manager," Steven Schumacher doesn't want to be surprised, "so we should be good at setting aside emotions and outperforming them in every sector of the field." In the meantime, Plymouth, after a tough period, has breathed life with 7 points in the last 3 games: especially crucial the last one against the former league leaders Leicester (1-0): "A masterstroke," the club applauds Neil Dewsnip, who recently took over from Foster but has already made a decisive impact from the sidelines. The Piligrims have regained solidity and belief (only one goal conceded in the last 3). It only takes one final effort. A balanced match awaits, 47 points against 48: whoever wins accelerates the race for survival, but a draw could satisfy both. In any case, within a match with a medium to low scoreline.
Sunderland-Millwall
Exploiting numerical superiority, the Black Cats pull off a surprise win away at WBA, securing a serene end to the season after turbulent times – 13th place, 56 points. Michael Dodds has announced his departure at the end of the season, but he's part of a group of caretaker managers reviving their teams when all hope seemed lost. On the other hand, Millwall has found a decisive sprint at The Den, with 6 consecutive points at home propelling the Lions within touching distance of early safety. "Two total performances, now we mustn't give up when it matters most," Coach Harris charges. Expect a highly uncertain match, with Sunderland coming off 9 points and 5 clean sheets in the last 6 games (though, in that one instance, they suffered a heavy away defeat). Londoners are on the rise, even though they lost their last three away matches: for risk-takers, the balance might slightly tip in their favor, without expecting any goal-fests.
Watford-Hull
Watford's unbeaten run comes to an end at St. Mary's Stadium, as they succumb to Southampton in the 99th minute (3-2), ending a positive streak of 5 games. "A tough defeat to accept, but we showed great character coming back from 2-0 down against a top team," comments Tom Cleverley, who continues to believe in his team's good form. The Hornets, in fact, have been putting in significant performances for several weeks despite their anonymous position in the table – 52 points, 15th place – demonstrating the potential to finish the season on a high. On Saturday, Hull City arrives at Vicarage Road buoyed by a resounding return to home victory, following their 3-0 win over QPR. "If we continue to play like this in the remaining games, we'll be a tough opponent for anyone," approves manager Rosenior, without burdening the playoff discussion. The orange-clad team remains six points away from the sixth spot with a match in hand: tough, but not impossible. However, they need to follow up with the offensive football inspired by Carvalho and his teammates. Ready for an open match, with both teams likely to score.
QPR-Preston (20/04/24, h17:15 CET)
A disappointing stumble away to a strong Hull side (3-0) and just one point in the last 3 matches: the survival battle is not over yet for QPR (sitting at 47 points, +3 from the relegation zone). "A few months ago, we would have dreamed of being in this position: it's time to stay calm," says manager Cifuentes without making a fuss. It feels like the Blue and Whites are feeling the physical toll of their recent surge, but one final effort is needed with the help of Loftus Road. Saturday's match seems within reach, facing a Preston side mathematically out of the playoff race following two defeats this week: heavy blows especially after the 0-1 loss to Norwich, a do-or-die game for North End, followed by a vertical collapse against Southampton (3-0). It remains to be seen if the team will regain the necessary mental resilience: a tight, medium-to-low scoring match is expected, with the onus of the result on QPR's shoulders.
Blackburn-Sheffield (21/04/24, h12:30 CET)
Rovers in ecstasy: a strike from top scorer Szmodics (his 24th goal of the season) downs Leeds in the dying moments, allowing Eustace's boys to all but secure safety by upsetting Elland Road (0-1). "Sensational defensive display, the willingness to help each other led us to a fantastic result. And, as you know, Sam (Szmodics) is in a class of his own," the coach exults. Now, Blackburn will host a Sheffield side with their backs against the wall, especially after failing to secure three points against Stoke (1-1), leaving Wednesday just one point adrift from safety with a complicated schedule. "Physically, we're not in the best shape, but I trust the players available to keep our dream alive," says Danny Rohl. The visitors have lost only one of their last 5 games, perform well against lower-ranked teams, and have already defeated Blackburn in the first leg: repeating won't be easy, as two out of three results will favor the hosts (49 points against 44). They will likely look to slow the game down, forcing Sheffield to open up. If incidents don't change the dynamics early on, a script of three or fewer total goals can be expected. And with the outcome uncertain, especially considering direct competitors have already played.
Middlesbrough-Leeds (22/04/24, h20:00 CET)
There's little to add: if Boro impose a draw away to league leaders Ipswich (1-1) and their coach says he's "unsatisfied given the chances to win the game," it's a sign of remarkable mentality. Perhaps a bit late, as Carrick's boys are now eight points adrift from sixth place with just 3 games to go. But it's encouraging for the next season: they've now gone 9 games without defeat. Leeds, on the other hand, are in trouble and at risk of a psychological crisis after the home defeat to Blackburn (0-1): for Summerville and company, it's their second consecutive goalless match at Elland Road and the second loss in the last 3 games (the first at home this season). Direct promotion is still within reach only because the others have also faltered. "It's up to me to find solutions for my players and unlock them offensively," shrugs Mister Farke. The big match of the day needs to be approached cautiously because despite the technical and motivational gap, Middlesbrough is in form while United are showing visible signs of physical decline. All outcomes are on the table, but a deluge of goals would be surprising.