Eerste Divisie – Round 23

26-29 January 2024

De Graafschap-Venlo
Home team in great form after the leap forward in the last week – a surprising win against white-and-blue Eindhoven (0-1) and a poker hand dealt to Jong Psv in the recovery match. Onal and his teammates are showing great mental resilience, placing them close to direct promotion (second team in Eerste for the number of victories, 12). Venlo is also bouncing back, securing the third victory in the last 4 games with a significant 2-1 against Ado. This is an important signal for the playoffs, but the yellow-and-blacks now need to improve their away performance, with only one victory in the last 6. Friday's match promises to be balanced, with De Graafschap slightly favored, and both teams likely to score. However, a high-scoring result should be treated with caution.

Ado Den Haag-Emmen
A challenging weekend for Ado in the last round, starting on the wrong foot with Veerman missing a penalty, and then losing to Venlo (2-1) despite a commendable performance. The crucial aspect now is not to lose direction to keep pace with Roda, second at +3. A slippery match is ahead with all the pressure on the yellow and green team. Emmen is on a downward spiral – tenth place, with five consecutive defeats – but due to postponements, they played only once in the last month. A break that makes it difficult to interpret the conditions of the red and whites, who were initially considered candidates for a quick return to Eredivisie but are now facing a different reality. Ado is still considered the favorite: a stronger team, striker Veerman (13 goals) hungry for redemption, and home advantage pushing towards an internal victory. Although a hard-fought match, the goal from the visitors should be considered.

Eindhoven-Maastricht
A sudden awakening for Eindhoven, which quickly lost ground and certainty in the playoff race – not scoring for 200 minutes and having a low home performance (12 points in 11 games). On the rise, Maastricht, with 4 victories in the last 6 games, including a recent 3-0 against Jong Utrecht. Despite the sudden departure of leader Koen Kostons to the Zweite Bundesliga, the team has taken responsibility and is now close to the eighth position. The match feels like a playoff, with a medium-low score expected, and technical values pushing towards Eindhoven, while the form is in favor of the guests.

Groningen-Jong Az
A goal by van Bergen allowed Groningen to end the positive streak of Jong Ajax (9 games) in the midweek recovery match. A clear sign from a team that has not lost in 12 official matches and aims to be more and more prominent in the second half of the season. Jong Az should never be underestimated, especially after a significant show of strength (5-1) against Dordrecht, with Ernest Poku (3 goals plus 2 assists) coming off the game of his life. However, the green and whites, without designated stars – no one in the squad has scored more than 5 goals – have learned to be tough, especially at home (12 points out of 12 in the last 4). Yes to another home victory.

Helmond-Breda
A dark period continues for Helmond, with only one victory in the last 10. But when you can't win, the important thing is not to lose: the recent 2-2 against Jong Psv should be seen in this light. The red and blacks continue to fight at home, but they need to recover the goals of top scorer Kaars – goalless for three consecutive matches for the first time in 10 months. On the other hand, Breda continues its playoff pursuit, recharging its batteries last weekend and focusing on the upcoming away game. The last away match brought an exciting 3-2 comeback against Emmen. It's an open game, with at least 3 total goals expected, and Janosek and his teammates are considered favorites.

Roda-Jong Utrecht
Redemption served for the yellow and blacks, who, after the disappointing 0-0 in 's-Hertogenbosch, reacted as a great team in the midweek recovery: 3 goals in one half against Eindhoven (Didden, Pena-Zauner, Ould Chikh), and Roda seems to have returned to its good times. The real challenge for the second spot is not to lose more points against the smaller teams. The upcoming match will provide signals in this direction: Jong Utrecht hasn't won away since January 6, 2023, then 23 defeats in the following 27 matches – 3 goals scored and 15 conceded in the last 5. These statistics are too eloquent to ignore the clear victory of the home team.

Telstar-Den Bosch
A match with high instability and a meager prize at stake for Telstar: second to last against third to last, with a total of 28 defeats and 81 goals conceded. The red and green team even managed to lose to Oss (1-0) in the last round. Den Bosch is in better shape, with a positive streak of three games, including challenging matches against Roda and Cambuur. The best player of the two squads, Zakaria Eddahchouri (already 11 goals), is, however, at the center of market rumors, and it's uncertain if he will be in the game. Therefore, every scenario should be approached with caution: defenses are shaky, and attacks are not shining. Telstar only has the burden of home advantage.

Cambuur-Oss 29-01-24 CET 20:00
The Frisians are eager to play, having been idle for two weeks and starting to feel the pressure of the gap in the standings with direct competitors – seventh place, -9 from the second. But on Monday, the classic match that tends to end with a lot to little will take place: Oss may have won 2 of the last 4 matches, but it remains at the bottom of the table and has already shown an inability to withstand higher-level opponents (see the 0-5 against Willem II). Furthermore, Cambuur's attack, with 51 goals, is the best in the league: Milan Smit alone (14) has scored more than the entire visiting team (13). Unless there are dramatic setbacks, a script for a comfortable home victory is expected.

Jong Ajax-Dordrecht 29-01-24 CET 20:00
Ajax reserves with a bitter taste after the home defeat against Groningen (0-1), which ended a streak of 9 games without a loss. For Misehouy and his teammates, the watchword is to restart and continue climbing a now respectable ranking – 15th place. On the other hand, Dordrecht received a warning after the setback against Jong Az: losing in Alkmaar is understandable, but the 5-1 result calls for reflection. And on Monday, facing another ambitious youth team, there are all kinds of threats. However, the match promises intense rhythms and a medium to high score, with both teams ready to play openly by nature.

Jong Psv-Willem II 29-01-24 CET 19:00
The white and red defense continues to leak: 17 goals conceded in the last 6are certainly not the best introduction to face the league leaders. Last Friday, Willem II could only draw 1-1 at home against Jong Ajax, but they still extended their lead to +9 over the third place. The momentum of the season remains in favor of Willem. With Bokila and Hilterman (19 goals combined), the goal-scoring duo is increasingly well-coordinated. Another telling statistic: Psv has the worst home record (9 points in 11 games), while Tilburg's team has the best away record (21 in 11). Everything points towards another victory for the league leaders, even though it might be hard-fought, with the opposing team likely to score.