Euroleague – Quarter final Day 2
Panathinaikos – Maccabi Tel Aviv: A reaction is inevitable
Maccabi Tel Aviv made a break in Game 1 by defeating Panathinaikos on the road by 91:87. Now they are two wins away from qualifying for the EuroLeague Final Four. Although they allowed their opponents to score 50 points and achieve a perfect 11/11 on two-pointers in the first half, things changed in the second half. Bonzie Colson hit several extremely important shots, and Jasiel Rivero was the X factor off the bench. However, a significant concern is hamstring injury to their superstar Wade Baldwin. He sat out the last seven minutes of the fourth quarter, and it's questionable if he will recover in time for Game 2.
As for Panathinaikos, they will certainly have regrets because it seemed like they played a great game. Mathias Lessort was an unstoppable force in the low post, Marius Grigonis and Luca Vildoza shot excellently from three-point range, but they lacked responsibility in crucial moments. Kendrick Nunn played only 20 minutes due to foul trouble. He couldn't find his rhythm, and his presence on the court will be much greater and different in Game 2. Kostas Sloukas, by inertia, was the one handling the ball in the closing minutes, but it didn't turn out well for his team as he committed a crucial turnover that decided the winner.
Maccabi Tel Aviv remains the only team that Panathinaikos hasn't managed to defeat this season. And we believe that will finally change on Thursday. Baldwin's injury will surely leave a big mark on the visitors. Even if he plays, it's unrealistic to expect him to be 100% fit. Lessort has shown dominance in the low post, and Panathinaikos definitely has a way to be superior in Game 2. It's realistic to expect Nunn to take much greater responsibility and lead the Greens to a 1-1 tie. We anticipated drama in Game 1, but it's unlikely to see it again, and it's even less likely for Panathinaikos to lose to Maccabi Tel Aviv for the fourth time in a row this season. This time, a home team win by at least five points and complete control throughout the game seems to be the most realistic outcome.
Real Madrid – Baskonia: Same thing, just all over again
As expected, Real Madrid demolished Baskonia in Game 1 with a score of 90:74. They quickly grabbed a double-digit lead in the first quarter, which they maintained until the end. Although Dzanan Musa was the only home player to score more than 10 points, it was more positive than negative thing. Many players contributed to Real Madrid's offense, and almost everyone made some impact when they were on the court. Sergio Llull had his vintage moments, Vincent Poirier and Walter Tavares dominated the paint, and Rudy Fernandez once again showed that he's playing his best basketball in the late stages of the season.
For Baskonia, simply making it to the EuroLeague playoffs is a significant overachievement considering they weren't even among the top 12 budget-wise clubs in the competition. Additionally, they started this series without their superstar Chima Moneke, who will miss Game 2 as well due to injury, which is a major handicap. Even with him, things wouldn't drastically change, but he could have made an impact on both ends of the floor. Head coach Dusko Ivanovic opted for a tactic with many three-point attempts in Game 1, but it didn't work out as Baskonia shot a modest 12/41 from downtown. For any chance in this series, they'll need three-point shooting percentages close to 50% and the ability to score around 90 points per game. However, Real Madrid's defense in the playoffs is much more focused and engaged than what opponents faced in the regular season.
It's hard to imagine any scenario different from what was seen on Tuesday night in Game 1. Real Madrid will likely establish control of the game's rhythm from the beginning and quickly build a double-digit lead that they'll control again. The only question is how convincing their victory will be. Baskonia without exceptional three-point shooting doesn't stand a chance, and it's unrealistic to expect them to dismantle Real Madrid in this stage of the season in that way. A double-digit victory for the hosts again seems like the most likely outcome for the second time in three days.
Monaco – Fenerbahce: There's only one road now
The first game of this EuroLeague quarterfinal series truly set the tone. Fenerbahce managed to steal a win in overtime against Monaco with a score of 95:91. Now, the Turkish powerhouse holds the advantage, shifting all possible pressure onto the players of Monaco and their head coach, Sasa Obradovic. Especially after they blew a nine-point lead with 4:30 remaining in the fourth quarter. It seemed like Monaco was headed to take a 1-0 series lead, but they made a run of poor decisions on offense while allowing Tyler Dorsey to hit back-to-back threes on the other end.
The bitter taste for Monaco is that they lost a game in which they did many good things. For the most part, they controlled the rhythm and pace, and in the end, they had seven turnovers less than their opponents (6-13). When you have only six turnovers in 45 minutes of EuroLeague quarterfinal game, it's hard to imagine losing the game. Yet, it happened. Fenerbahce knew that the only way to triumph in the Principality was to hit a large number of three-pointers, and that aspect made the difference. The visitors had a fantastic 46.7% (14/30) shooting from downtown, and that's the recipe for success. They are aware of being physically inferior in backcourt, so their strategy was to rely on their best weapon.
The problem for Fenerbahce is that sustaining such a shooting performance from game to game seems impossible. At the end of the day, Nick Calathes hit a shot from nearly half-court at the end of the third quarter, which was probably a sign that things were not to finish good for Monaco. In game two, the hosts will be even more aggressive and will surely try to steal as many balls as possible to get easy transition points. A positive aspect for Monaco is that last year, they started the playoffs in the same manner, losing to Maccabi Tel Aviv at home in Game 1. In the end, they were the ones who made it to the Final Four, and now they'll have to follow the same road. The first step is to outplay Fenerbahce in Game 2, and based on what we saw on Wednesday, there's no doubt they're capable of that. Johnathan Motley didn't play due to injury and is questionable for Friday, while Scottie Wilbekin also got injured. If head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius can't count on both of them, it will be a huge handicap for the visitors. Monaco is the more complete team, physically stronger, and it would be shocking if Fenerbahce manages to make two breaks in three days.
Barcelona – Olympiacos: Less pressure usually means a better shooting night
It might sound a bit silly to say that anyone will be without pressure in the EuroLeague quarterfinals, but Olympiacos' win on Wednesday definitely hinted at the direction this series is heading. Simply put, Olympiacos is more experienced, has an incomparably better coach, plays significantly stronger and more aggressive defense, and better organizes and controls their offense. Barcelona's only advantage lies in greater individual quality, but at this stage of the season, that falls short when the opponent has all the other characteristics on their side. It was realistic for Olympiacos to make at least one break in first two games in Barcelona. Now, everyone will expect the series not to return to Catalonia, and the only question is whether the final score will be 3-1 or 3-0. Because it's really hard to imagine Barcelona defeating Olympiacos in such a tough environment as the "Peace and Friendship Stadium" in Piraeus.
Before the series moves to Greece, Game 2 must be played on Friday. Why will there be less pressure on both sides? Olympiacos is aware that they've done what they had to do. Their goal was to win one game on the road to give themselves a chance to close out the series in Piraeus. Mission accomplished. Another potential win on Friday would be just a huge bonus. On the other hand, Barcelona is now in a situation where they are the underdogs and have nothing to lose. They are aware that their chances of reaching the Final Four have drastically diminished, and all they can do now is relax because they don't function well under stress. All of this can give us a hint about the direction the game will take.
In Game 1, both teams shot terribly from three-point range. Defenses played a role, especially Olympiacos', as they managed to slow down the pace to the maximum. However, despite the poor shooting percentages, the teams still combined for 152 points. Considering that the new game is already on Friday, it's hard to expect the same high defensive intensity, which should allow more space for better looks. If the shooting percentages improve even minimally, we could see a game with at least 153 or 154 points combined. Barcelona will try to speed up to the maximum, and they'll likely succeed this time. Predicting the winner is much harder than in Game 1 because Olympiacos has more advantages in this series than Barcelona. However, it would be a huge embarrassment for Barcelona if they were swept. From that perspective, it's much more realistic to see it tied 1-1 after two clashes, but it wouldn't be a shock if the visitors triumph for the second time in a row. More points than on Wednesday and a more enjoyable game to watch is the safest bet.