Euroleague – Quarter final - Day 3
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Panathinaikos: A different environment
This game will be like none other in the history of the EuroLeague playoffs. Maccabi Tel Aviv has been playing all season home games on neutral court in Belgrade, and it will be the same this time. Unlike the regular season, there will be about 1,000 fans traveling from Israel, but the atmosphere definitely won't resemble the usual playoff ambiance. Much will depend on how the players adapt, and the outcome hinges on it.
Maccabi has left a better impression in the first two games of this best-of-five series. They faced the most problems under the basket where Mathias Lessort was physically superior to Josh Nebo and Jasiel Rivero. Perhaps the Israelis didn't expect this, and they'll have to find a way to contain the French center. Kostas Sloukas had statistically his best game ever in Game 2, and Ioannis Papapetrou had his best game of the season. Despite all this, Panathinaikos led by only three points at one point in the fourth quarter. Maccabi's style of basketball is quite similar and doesn't suit the Greens. Lorenzo Brown has found his excellent basketball, Bonzie Colson is consistently ahead in one-on-one play, and Antonius Cleveland will likely get even more space after his good role in the first two games.
For Maccabi, the key factor will still be whether they'll have their superstar Wade Baldwin. He suffered a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter of Game 1 and wasn't on the court on Thursday. He traveled to Croatia for treatments to try to get ready for Game 3 and is questionable. If Baldwin is able to play and if he has no limits, Maccabi is favored to lead 2-1. They are more stable in three-point shooting, their backcourt controls the offensive rhythm better, and they seem better able to control their emotions. Panathinaikos has the advantage that their best player, Kendrick Nunn, has not yet found his recognizable form, and it is inevitable that he will find it at some point. Information on whether Baldwin will play probably won't be known until an hour before the tip-off. With him, Maccabi is the favorite. Without him, it's more like a 50/50 game where small details will decide.
Olympiacos – Barcelona: The Piraeus Hell is a huge factor
The Peace and Friendship Hall is one of the toughest places in Europe to play basketball. Olympiacos fans always create a phenomenal atmosphere and extract the maximum from their players. There should be no doubt that it will be the same this Tuesday. Olympiacos went to Catalonia with the ambition to "steal" a win, and they succeeded. Now they must triumph twice at home to qualify for the Final Four, and they are definitely capable of doing so.
The first two games showed everything that was realistic to happen. Barcelona has superior individual quality, and that had to reflect in one game. Jabari Parker was excellent in Game 2 and the main reason for the Catalan's victory in that duel. However, Game 1 is a much more realistic reflection. Olympiacos showed much greater toughness there and limited the performance of Barcelona's centers. Not necessarily in scoring because Willy Hernangomez was the top scorer in Game 1, but Jan Vesely didn't have recognizable mid-range shots, and Moustapha Fall, Filip Petrusev and Moses Wright had a lot of easy points on the rim on the other end. Olympiacos head coach Georgios Bartzokas is incomparably more experienced (and better) than his colleague Roger Grimau on the other side, and it seems like the ultimate mismatch in favor of the Greeks. On top of that, Olympiacos' offense looks much more stable, always seeking the best shooting position, while Barcelona relies on individual solutions.
In the first two games of this best-of-five series, Barcelona didn't score more than 77 points even once. Olympiacos even managed to limit them with their frenetic defense in Spain. In Piraeus, that intensity will be doubly greater. Barcelona will struggle in every possession to find open looks at the basket, leading to many bad shots. On the other hand, Olympiacos has many players who are not particularly good shooters but shoot much better at home. That will surely be the case now, and it's realistic that the red and whites will have better percentages than in Catalonia. Olympiacos captain Kostas Papanikolau didn't travel to Spain due to a virus, and he will be back on Tuesday. That's not an insignificant factor. When all is said and done, Olympiacos has more pluses on their side, and it would be a surprise not if they lose, but if there is any dramatic finish here at all.
Fenerbahce – Monaco: The shots will stop at some point
Fenerbahce came close to returning from the Principality with a full haul. They were up 1-0 and +9 in Game 2's fourth quarter, but they couldn't seal the deal, and now it's 1-1. Despite Monaco playing defense with immense energy and maximum effort, Fenerbahce managed to hit shots from distance to maintain and build a lead. In Game 1, they shot an excellent 14/30 from three-point range, and in Game 2, they had 14/25 at the start of the fourth quarter. Although Fenerbahce has shown throughout the season how powerful they are in this aspect, the impression is that this is unsustainable throughout the entire series. As soon as those percentages dropped in the fourth quarter of Game 2, Monaco staged a comeback and clinched the win.
Monaco can also take solace in the fact that MVP Mike James had below-average performances in both games. There's no doubt he can perform much better and simply has to take full responsibility. Although everyone contributed in Game 2, no one has the individual quality to create an advantage like James. Jordan Loyd hit the dagger three-pointer, Alpha Diallo grabbed the crucial offensive rebound, but without James, none of what they've achieved this season would have been possible. He's a player who is almost impossible to defend one-on-one, even though Nigel Hayes-Davis is doing a great job in switching. Monaco definitely has more depth, and now the pressure will be higher on the opponent.
Fenerbahce's reserve lies in not having their best center, Johnathan Motley, at Salle Gaston Medecin due to injury. He should return for Game 3, which will be an additional boost. This game will almost certainly be decided by two factors. If Fenerbahce continues to shoot three-pointers at such a crazy rate, Monaco won't stand a chance in Istanbul. If the shooting falters, as it must eventually, things will turn around 180 degrees. The visitors have an advantage inside with Donatas Motiejunas, which is crucial for them. The first two games were a spectacle for all basketball fans, and everyone expects the same in Turkey. Fenerbahce is the favorite on paper, but don't be shocked if Monaco pulls off a win. There's immense quality on both sides, and the home team's shooting will be crucial.
Baskonia – Real Madrid: They are not the same league
The first two games in this series looked identical. Real Madrid was dominant in every basketball category and seemed like the teams weren't even from the same league. Los Blancos built a team to win back-to-back EuroLeague titles, while many feel that Baskonia didn't even deserve to be part of the playoffs. And that difference was more than evident. Real Madrid excelled even in three-point shooting, where they had struggled during the season in some moments. Facundo Campazzo orchestrated the offense in the right way, Guerschon Yabusele and Gabriel Deck were always ready to hit shots when needed, just like Mario Hezonja, who was frustrated due to officiating in Game 2.
It's true that Baskonia didn't have one of their best players, Chima Moneke, but even his presence wouldn't have changed anything. He may return for Game 3, however, it's unlikely to lead to his team's triumph. In front of their fans, it's realistic that the hosts put up a greater and firmer resistance than they did in the Spanish capital. They'll probably shoot better and maintain equality for a period of the game, but Real Madrid will likely make a run at some point in the third quarter that will put them ahead by three or four possessions, and that will be the end for Baskonia. Markus Howard can always explode and hit seven or eight threes, but collectively, Baskonia doesn't have the strength to threaten Real Madrid, and they're aware of that.