Euroleague – Quarter final - Day 4
Olympiacos – Barcelona: A strong character must come to the fore
Olympiacos lost Game 3 in an unbelievable manner. They had the victory within their grasp but made several unexpected defensive mistakes and were punished by a three-point shots. Tomas Satoransky's three-pointer with 35 seconds left in overtime to tie the game at 80:80 was likely decisive. In the end, Filip Petrusev committed the most foolish foul possible in the final second of the match, leading to a heartbreaking conclusion for Olympiacos. For this game, head coach Georgios Bartzokas will need to find more players in form offensively because it's not enough to have just two or three consistently contributing. Isaiah Canaan failed to score a single point on Tuesday, which is unacceptable for someone who is the team's best shooter.
Many doubted Barcelona's character, but it was definitely demonstrated in Game 3. The Catalans came to Greece to strike back, and they succeeded. The key was the contribution of centers Jan Vesely and Willy Hernangomez. The two of them were completely outplayed in Barcelona last week, but now they managed to gain the upper hand in matchups against Moses Wright and Moustapha Fall. Now Olympiacos will likely adjust and try to force their opponents into taking more bad shots. Satoransky was the crucial X-factor in Game 3. Although he's having one of the worst seasons of his career, he found a fantastic game and his three made three-pointers tipped the scales in favor of his team.
Looking at the end of Game 3, it seems like Barcelona "stole" the victory from Olympiacos. From coach Bartzokas's reaction, it was evident how angry he was at the referees for the final decision, but also at his players for a couple of defensive lapses in overtime. This usually leads to an even stronger reaction from the red and whites, and it's realistic to expect another defensive masterclass. Although they limited Barcelona to 71 points in regular time in Game 3, it's not inconceivable for them to hold them below 70 in Game 4. Offensively, Canaan will surely be better, and it's realistic for Nigel Williams-Goss to hit some shots from beyond the arc. It was hard to imagine this Barcelona making one break, let alone two, which seems like science fiction. Anything other than a home team win and an equalized series at 2-2 would be a huge surprise.
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Panathinaikos: All or nothing
Panathinaikos missed a huge opportunity to deal a fatal blow to Maccabi Tel Aviv on Tuesday. They trailed by double digits for almost the entire game, then made a run in the fourth quarter that gave them a chance to win. Kendrick Nunn had a good look at the basket in the final second, but missed the three-pointer, allowing the Israelis to take a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five series. Wade Baldwin once again did not play for Maccabi due to a hamstring injury, and he is highly doubtful for Game 4 on Thursday. However, even without him, Oded Kattash's team showed they can outsmart Panathinaikos. Throughout the series, they have demonstrated greater defensive intensity and have more diverse solutions on the offensive end.
Game 3 revealed one important thing: Panathinaikos cannot make a break unless Nunn plays at his peak. Only when he took responsibility in the fourth quarter did the Greens make their run and have a chance to triumph. The former NBA player must have the ball more in his hands and be the one to create. Dinos Mitoglou and Marius Grigonis have not performed as expected in this quarterfinals, although it's also true that they have been outmatched. Head coach Ergin Ataman has turned more towards Ioannis Papapetrou and Luca Vildoza, who spent most of the season on the bench. When you decide to change the rotation after playing one way for six months, it's just evidence that things are not working best at the moment and that the Turkish coach has uncertainties about who to trust.
Game 4 is all or nothing for both teams. If Panathinaikos were to triumph, it's very hard to imagine they wouldn't finish the series at home in front of 18,000 fans. Never in EuroLeague history has it happened that the visitors win Game 5, so this is also an indication of how important Thursday's showdown will be. Panathinaikos must further exploit the advantage that their center Mathias Lessort has under the basket. Although he struggles with free throws, he must constantly be aggressive as he wins matchups against Josh Nebo and Jasiel Rivero. Kostas Sloukas must be more rational in offense because the spectacular Game 2 won't happen every time, and Nunn is the one who needs to lead throughout the match. Panathinaikos has greater individual quality, but this series has shown that almost every game is a 50/50 because Maccabi is a tough matchup for the Greens. Such drama should be expected in Game 4, with the outcome decided in one of the final possessions. Maccabi has won both such endings, so perhaps it's time for luck to smile on Panathinaikos and for them to even the series at 2-2.
Fenerbahce – Monaco: Everything will be about Mike James
Mike James has been a standout player in the EuroLeague regular season. With over 18 points and 5 assists per game, he is by far the leading candidate for the MVP award, and it would be a surprise if he didn't win it. However, he has yet to show up in the playoffs, and that's the reason why Fenerbahce leads 2-1 in the best-of-five series. James finished Game 3 with 11 points and poor shooting percentages, and in Game 2, he was even worse with only eight points and seven attempted shots. For someone considered the best player in the EuroLeague, that's simply not enough, especially considering that Fenerbahce doesn't double-team him constantly, leaving him space to operate, but he fails to take on the level of responsibility expected of him.
If this doesn't change in Game 4, Monaco will end their season on Friday. Their ambitions were as high as they could be, and anything less than winning the EuroLeague would be a failure. They are just one step away from not even making it to the Final Four. The absence of John Brown, who didn't play on Wednesday due to a shoulder injury, is a problem for this team. He is by far the best defensive player on the team, and the intensity is definitely not the same with or without him. However, his absence might be compensated if James finally starts playing like a true MVP and attacks the basket more instead of settling for tough shots. Fenerbahce has the edge in this series for now, and they won't deviate from their tactics. They play very patiently on offense, look for good shots, and punish all defensive mistakes by their opponents. Their shooting percentages are consistently high, and they have at least six players who can punish opponents with three-pointers.
It's worth noting that Fenerbahce also has injury problems. Their best center, Johnathan Motley, has missed all games in the series, and it's not realistic to expect him to play on Friday. However, Fenerbahce has compensated for his absence with greater aggression from players like Dyshawn Pierre, Nate Sestina and Nigel Hayes-Davis. It's also important to remember that Fenerbahce plays in front of 13,000 passionate fans, and it's not easy to outplay them in Istanbul. At the end of the day, everything will depend on James. If he takes on the responsibility, becomes more aggressive, and takes more shots, Monaco will at least have a chance. Without that, this series will end 3-1 in favor of Fenerbahce. However, it's expected to be at least a bit more dramatic this time than on Wednesday when the hosts had complete control. Even if they win, the assumption is that it won't be by more than seven points.