Euroleague – Quarter final - Day 5

Panathinaikos – Maccabi Tel Aviv: OAKA will devour opponents
Maccabi Tel Aviv had a chance to close out this series on Thursday. It was a very good chance and they didn't capitalize on it. They led by seven points midway through the fourth quarter, but then Ioannis Papapetrou hit an important three-pointer and sparked Panathinaikos towards a great comeback, leveling the best-of-five series at 2-2. Now, everything will be decided at the OAKA, where more than 80,000 Greens fans have expressed their desire to get a ticket for this match. Everyone wants to be in the arena and push their team towards the first EuroLeague Final Four appearance since 2012. And those lucky 18 thousand who will attend the event will likely witness just that.

Panathinaikos has gone through all the circles of hell in this series, and now they will be the hosts in a true hell for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Kendrick Nunn has significantly raised his game throughout the quarterfinal matches, Kostas Sloukas had two historic performances, and Mathias Lessort justifies the epithet of the best center in the EuroLeague. The mentioned trio is most responsible for Panathinaikos' excellent results and for the chance to qualify for the Final Four. Head coach Ergin Ataman has found Ioannis Papapetrou, who gets more space than Marius Grigonis, and that is entirely justified. Panathinaikos struggled in all four games, but it seems they have found a way to play against Maccabi. And when they survived Game 4, it's crazy to expect that they won't win Game 5. The only question is by what margin it will be.

Maccabi's superstar Wade Baldwin tried to play in Game 4, but he quickly left the court and was ruled out for Game 5 due to a hamstring injury. Head coach Oded Kattash managed to find some good rotations even without him, which ultimately gave Maccabi a chance to close out the series on Thursday, but the chance was missed, and now the ball is in Panathinaikos' court. Expect the hosts to fully utilize the great energy from the stands and to play defense from the first minute like they have for most of the season. The impression is that Maccabi missed the only real chance they had, and Game 5 will look a lot like Game 2. At some point, Panathinaikos will go on a double-digit lead and probably finish with it. Maybe Maccabi will cut the deficit to between six or ten points in the final minutes, but the question of the winner will likely not be in doubt at any moment.

Monaco – Fenerbahce: Blockbuster chapter five
The series between Monaco and Fenerbahce has offered everything that true basketball fans want to see. Four spectacular games where both teams had a chance to win every time, with four dramatic finishes. And this blockbuster will be decided in Game 5, where it will be a surprise if the scenario changes. We can expect another back and forth encounter with many ups and downs on both sides and with complete parity at some point in the fourth quarter. A moment of inspiration from an individual in the finish will likely be crucial in determining which team we will see at the Final Four in Berlin.

Monaco's joker and key card still haven't been played, which is something that delights head coach Sasa Obradovic. Although Mike James hit the most important shot in Game 4, the impression remains that we haven't seen the best version of the EuroLeague MVP once. He struggles a lot to gain an advantage against the brilliant Nick Calathes, but we should expect James on Wednesday to take even greater responsibility and confirm that he is undoubtedly the best player in the EuroLeague for the 2023/2024 season. All the other Monaco players have contributed significantly throughout this series. Jordan Loyd decided Game 2 with a three-pointer, Elie Okobo always hits from distance when Fenerbahce threatens to build a big lead, Alpha Diallo grabbed a key offensive rebound in Game 2, and Jaron Blossomgame hit an important three-pointer in the same game. Donta Hall played a crucial role in Game 4, and Domantas Motiejunas has troubled Fenerbahce's centers throughout the series. They've all done what was needed for Monaco, and now it's up to James to play a historic game, the way he knows and can.

Fenerbahce has relied on its three-point shooting throughout the series, which worked fantastically in the first three games. However, it was unsustainable and had to stop at some point. And that's exactly what happened in Game 4. Tyler Dorsey, Tarik Biberovic and Nigel Hayes-Davis missed many open threes, and apart from Marko Guduric, no one had a rhythm from beyond the arc. Monaco plays very good defense, and it's expected that the intensity will be at its highest possible level now. An additional boost would be if their best defender, John Brown, is cleared to play. He injured his shoulder in Game 2 and missed both games in Istanbul, while Fenerbahce's top center, Johnathan Motley, hasn't been on the court in any game of this series due to a calf injury. Both are game-time decisions, and their presence would be crucial. All in all, drama is inevitable. But Monaco has a slight edge, and it's more realistic that they will be the team we'll see in Berlin in three weeks. When it comes to intensity, it's much more realistic to see a game with fewer than 165 points than to see offenses as prolific as they were at the beginning of the series.

Barcelona – Olympiacos: Maybe it's time for history to be written
Never in the history of the EuroLeague has a visiting team won Game 5 in the quarterfinals. There have been 18 Game 5s played so far, and all 18 times the hosts emerged victorious. This statistic seems almost unbelievable, and everyone agrees that it has to stop at some point. And it seems that this season is the time for it to happen, and of all three Game 5 matchups, it's likely that everyone agrees Olympiacos has the best chance to do so. They demolished Barcelona by 92:58 in Game 4, unleashing all their anger over a referee mistake that decided the winner in Game 3 when they didn't call an obvious five-second violation in the final minute of the fourth quarter. In addition to the extra motivation, Olympiacos also had extra quality. Their captain and most experienced player, Kostas Papanikolau, returned after illness and was one of the best on the court. He hit three three-pointers, but his presence alone is more important than anything. Nikola Milutinov spent more than 20 minutes on the court and was a force in the paint. With them in identical roles in Game 5, Olympiacos' chances will be more than solid.

There is no doubt that Barcelona possesses much greater individual quality than Olympiacos. If this were a video game, the overall rating of their players would be much higher. However, this is not a video game, and in reality, things are often different. Olympiacos plays the best defense in the EuroLeague, and they managed to limit Barcelona's brilliant offense to under 80 points in both of the first two games in Blaugrana. It's likely to happen again. Olympiacos will seek their chance through fanatical defense, but it will also be necessary to score on the other end of the court. Isaiah Canaan and Alec Peters haven't shown in this series even a fraction of the offensive potential we saw during the regular season. Thomas Walkup ended two out of four games without scoring a single point, and Nigel Williams-Goss is the only consistent one in the backcourt. The return of Milutinov and Papanikolau provides much greater depth, and surely Moustapha Fall will again have a significant contribution because Barcelona couldn't stop him in any way when the Olympiacos giant was on the court. Filip Petrusev and Shaq McKissic are important factors off the bench, and at least one of them will have to have a good night again.

When all is said and done, Olympiacos' offense is what will determine whether the club from Piraeus will be at the Final Four or not. Defense will almost certainly do its part, but it's very difficult to triumph in Blaugrana when you don't have a three-point shot. The positive thing for the guests is that they have achieved physical superiority in the paint throughout the series, and that's crucial. Jabari Parker is the only Barcelona player who has consistently performed well in all games, but he rarely passes the ball. Perhaps that will be a negative for the Catalans in this duel. If he enters a shooting slump, it will be hard for him to stop shooting, and this is where the lack of experience of head coach Roger Grimau comes into play. And Olympiacos has an advantage here because they have back-to-back EuroLeague Coach of the Year Georgios Bartzokas. Barcelona's biggest chance is to build a double-digit lead very early with good three-point shooting and control the game throughout. However, it's much more realistic that the teams will be in deadlock for most of the game, and if that's the case, Olympiacos will have to stay composed and find a way for a 6:0 or 8:0 run that will be decisive in the key period of the second half.