Euroleague - Round 12
Anadolu Efes-Panathinaikos: Pride and revenge 05/12/23
For both sides. Ergin Ataman, as the head coach, won two EuroLeague titles with Anadolu Efes and became the most successful figure in the history of that club. However, there was a certain disagreement last season, so he has now taken over Panathinaikos. His former players haven't spoken the kindest words about him, so there will be motivation on both teams. Shane Larkin will want to show that Anadolu Efes can achieve success even without their former coach, while Ataman will want to make an impact in this game as well. Since he built this Anadolu Efes roster, he knows all their strengths and weaknesses.
This could be crucial in the game. With Lessort and Mitoglou, Panathinaikos has a serious advantage in the paint compared to Anadolu Efes. Larkin, Thompson and Beaubois have a lot of points in their hands, but Nunn, Grant and Sloukas can match that on the other side. In a game with a lot of emotions, as well as ups and downs, the overall quality will be decisive. It favors Panathinaikos. It definitely won't be easy, nor will it be convincing, but it will be enough for at least a triumph in a dramatic ending.
Alba Berlin-Zalgiris: Proof of seriousness 05/12/23
If Zalgiris wants to contend for a playoff spot for the second consecutive season, they simply have to defeat Alba Berlin, who currently holds a 1-10 record in the EuroLeague. Over the past few weeks, the German team has been without several key players such as Matt Thomas and Sterling Brown. Neither of them has a serious injury, but there's a chance they might skip this showdown. If they play, they definitely won't be at 100%. This game also features a clash of two completely different basketball styles. Alba Berlin always strives to accelerate the game to the maximum and shoot early in the offense, while Zalgiris insists on a slow-paced team and positional attack, seeking the best shot opportunities.
The good news for the visitors is that their captain, Edgaras Ulanovas, delivered his best performance of the season in the victory against Milano. For Zalgiris to achieve their goals, he needs to maintain a high level, which hasn't been consistent in the past two months. Another factor favoring Zalgiris is that Alba Berlin plays against Bayern in the Bundesliga two days before this game, and their energy expenditure is likely to be much higher in a clash between the top two German clubs. Smits and Ulanovas will persistently emphasize low post play where they have an advantage, creating three-point shot opportunities for other players and Zalgiris' percentages in the EuroLeague are spectacular.
Alba Berlin won't go down without a fight, but this game holds incomparably greater significance for Zalgiris, and expect them to take care of business. It might not be pretty, but they will find a way to cross the finish line first, even if it's a win by a narrow margin.
Olympiacos-Real Madrid: It's not easy to take the king's crown off his head 05/12/23
Although Olympiacos will be incredibly motivated to secure a win here. The memory of their loss to Real Madrid in the EuroLeague final six months ago, where Sergio Llull hit an exceptionally tough shot in the final moments of the game, still lingers. A win in the regular season certainly cannot replace the pain experienced by those close to Olympiacos, but it could bring them at least a bit of happiness. The problem for the home team is that they are nowhere near as strong a team as they were back then, and Real Madrid looks even more powerful with Facundo Campazzo in the roster.
The Argentine point guard scored 33 points and had seven assists in Real Madrid's loss to Fenerbahce on Friday, adding another significant dimension to the "Royal Club's" game. Walter Tavares has started to play at the level expected of him, making it challenging to overcome Los Blancos. Fenerbahce managed to achieve it in an incredible manner, but such a scenario won't happen every time. Real Madrid won't have such poor three-point shooting percentages twice in a row, nor will they allow themselves to turn one loss into two. As significant as Olympiacos' motivation may be, the quality of Real Madrid is twice as great. Winning in Piraeus is not an easy task for anyone, but the visitors should control this match without big problems and ultimately triumph by at least two or three possessions.
Bayern-Milano: It won't be pretty, that's for sure. 05/12/23
Predicting the winner of this game is not easy, but based on what we've seen so far, we can expect a match with an exceptionally slow pace, where two good defenses will come to the forefront. Bayern has significantly improved their form, showcasing their potential with wins against Partizan, Asvel and Virtus, even without their captain Vladimir Lucic, who is injured. Serge Ibaka is currently one of the most dominant centers in Europe, completely overpowering Virtus' centers. He is likely to do the same against Milano, which has struggled with offensive rebounds this season. This suggests that we won't see many second-chance opportunities for the visitors, and to triumph in Munich, they will need to shoot exceptionally well from beyond the arc.
Milano demonstrated their ability to shoot at high percentages in their away game against Crvena Zvezda. However, Bayern's defense is at a much higher level than that of the Belgrade club. Milano also possesses exceptional defensive potential, as evidenced in clashes against Olympiacos and Valencia on their home court. Like Bayern, they also emphasize positional offense and smart ball movement. They don't allow opponents many second-chance attempts either. In summary, Bayern is in better form and is the favorite in this match, while Milano has individually more talented players. In a game with less than 155 points, Bayern might have the edge, but that's not a guarantee. The only certainty is that there won't be much running and flashy plays.
Partizan-Monaco: The hosts will not allow a step back 05/12/23
The victory against Panathinaikos was likely a turning point for Partizan this season, reminiscent of the triumph over Anadolu Efes last year in a similar stage of the competition. Kevin Punter returned after a month-long injury hiatus and played a crucial role in the black and whites win on Thursday. Since Bruno Caboclo's arrival, Partizan's defense has reached a much higher level, and the Brazilian had excellent minutes in the fourth quarter against „Greens“. PJ Dozier and Frank Kaminsky are progressing from game to game, and the mosaic under head coach Zeljko Obradovic is gradually coming together. When it came together last season, Partizan was a dominant force in the EuroLeague, and the goal is to achieve that once again.
On paper, Monaco has the most talented team in the EuroLeague after Real Madrid and Barcelona, but their form is still riddled with a lot of issues. Head coach Sasa Obradovic struggles to integrate new players who arrived during the summer to strengthen the team. Kemba Walker is far from the player he was as a four-time NBA All-Star, and Elie Okobo has yet to reach his usual level. Jordan Loyd is dealing with injuries, so ultimately, it all comes down to what Mike James will do. Against Baskonia, he decided the game with his three-point shooting. James also found a way to bring win to his team last Thursday in the clash with Olympiacos.
Last season, Partizan demolished Monaco in the EuroLeague at home. Now, after the convincing win against Panathinaikos, the black and whites will surely not allow themselves to take a step or two back, and that would undoubtedly be the case if they lose here. Confidence is high, and in a matchup between two coaches with the last name Obradovic, everything favors the one who has won the EuroLeague nine times in his career. With Caboclo's presence, Monaco won't be able to materialize Motiejunas's strength in the paint, forcing them to take many shots from a distance. Partizan will be ready for such a situation, and with the extra motivation from their home crowd, they will likely establish a double-digit lead at some point. Even if Monaco make a comeback, Partizan will do enough to avoid drama in the final minutes of the game.
Asvel-Maccabi Tel Aviv: Eventually, Asvel will win at home 06/12/23
However, there is a small chance of that happening in this game. Asvel has a 0-4 record at home in the EuroLeague this season, and despite the new head coach Gianmarco Pozzecco bringing great energy, they simply lack the quality. They are at the bottom of this competition in every sense, alongside Alba Berlin. Nando De Colo returned with 16 points in the loss to Barcelona, but currently, Asvel has too few players capable of contributing at this level. There's also Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Joffrey Lauvergne and Mike Scott, but none of them ranks among the best at their positions in the EuroLeague.
Adding to the challenge, Asvel is a team that conceptually doesn't match well with Maccabi Tel Aviv. With strong centers like Josh Nebo, Jasiel Rivero and Roman Sorkin, the visitors will have a huge advantage in the paint and will generate a significant number of second-chance opportunities. Even without that, they would still be in the lead because the talent they possess in Lorenzo Brown and Wade Baldwin is too dominant for Asvel's backcourt players like Lee and De Colo. Asvel may break their streak of poor results in Villeurbanne at some point, but this is not the opponent against whom they can hope for success. Perhaps they will be close until the middle of the third quarter, but at some point, the visitors will make a run of seven or eight points and break their resistance. In the end, it should be a comfortable win by a few possessions.
Baskonia-Fenerbahce: Dusko Ivanovic's team has no intention to stop 06/12/23
With a win against Valencia on the road after another comeback, Baskonia has shown that they are a team capable of achieving great things. The issue is their reliance on the shooting mood of Marcus Howard, but we haven't seen many games this season where he hasn't hit a significant number of three-pointers. Additionally, compared to the previous season, they now have Chima Moneke who is a strong candidate for the Most Improved Player in the EuroLeague. He contributes big on both ends of the court, and when both he and Howard are in form, Baskonia can defeat any opponent in Europe. Head coach Dusko Ivanovic won five out of six EuroLeague games since his return to Vitoria, and the only loss to Monaco came in the final second.
Fenerbahce remains a bit of a mystery, and it's still challenging to read them entirely. They have the individual quality to defeat anyone at home, as demonstrated against Real Madrid on Thursday. However, their 1-5 record on the road also confirms that they show two different faces at home and away. While they faced several injury problems during a string of losses, it wasn't the sole reason for their poor performances. If Marko Guduric and Scottie Wilbekin don't shoot well, Fenerbahce struggles even against weaker teams than Baskonia. One area where the visitors might have an advantage is in the low post with Johnathan Motley, but apart from that, most other aspects favor Baskonia.
This will be a close game until the very end with many lead changes, and it could easily come down to the wire. If one had to flip a coin for the winner, Baskonia's current form is so good that it wouldn't be wise to bet against them at the Fernando Buesa Arena at this moment.
Valencia-Crvena Zvezda: Desire will be crucial 06/12/23
These are teams of similar quality but with different ambitions. Crvena Zvezda is currently at the 16th place in the EuroLeague, well below their expectations. The victory against Anadolu Efes slightly restores faith in the team, but having created the most expensive roster in the club's history, their aim was to contend for the Final Four, which seems distant at the moment. Shabazz Napier is playing at a very low level, leading Milos Teodosic to take a more significant role and more minutes than initially planned. Nemanja Nedovic was impressive on Friday, and the entire offense revolves around the two Serbian players mentioned. Luka Mitrovic and Joel Bolomboy are doing a great job in the paint, but Crvena Zvezda lacks support players at the forward positions, especially since Rokas Giedraitis has been in poor form lately.
On the other hand, Valencia has been shooting poorly from beyond the arc in recent games, and without improvement in that area, they can't expect wins against any opponent. The good thing for them is that Crvena Zvezda struggles to defend the three-point shot, and if Valencia can't find success from long range even against them, then changes might be needed. In order to secure the expected position on the table, Crvena Zvezda must go on this trip and return with a win. Their schedule is pretty hard in the coming month, and they need to find a way to defeat teams of similar quality, with Valencia being one such team. This game won't be a one-way street, and we can expect many opportunities for both teams to secure a triumph. The team that handles the final moments better and shows greater determination will likely emerge victorious. Without a doubt, this is the most evenly matched game of the round, but Crvena Zvezda needs this win badly.
Virtus-Barcelona: Reality knocked on the door 06/12/23
And the reality is that Virtus isn't among the top eight teams in the EuroLeague. They fully exploited a favorable early-season schedule to rack up a significant number of wins, but this has made everyone take them more seriously than they might otherwise be considered. Bayern easily handled Virtus last week, and a similar outcome is expected against Barcelona. Willy Hernangomez and Jan Vesely will have a big advantage in the paint, and that interior quality is high enough to slow down Toko Shengelia on the other side. Alex Abrines is in exceptional form, and both he and Nicolas Laprovittola will ruthlessly exploit any open shooting space.
Virtus' only chance is to shoot at an exceptional percentage from beyond the arc, but Marco Belinelli, Gabriel Lundberg and Jaleen Smith are unlikely to get as good looks as they have in the past games due to Barcelona's excellent defense. Whether the game is played at a slow or fast pace, the visitors will have the advantage, and in the end, they should secure a comfortable win without any drama in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.