Euroleague - Round 15

Crvena Zvezda – Real Madrid: The first step is always the hardest 19/12/23

If Crvena Zvezda wants to re-enter the playoff race, they will have to navigate through a challenging schedule in the next four games. Surviving means winning at least two games, and their first test is against the reigning EuroLeague champions, Real Madrid. When looking at advanced stats, it's somewhat unclear why this team is at 5-9. They boast the fifth-best offense in the competition (offensive rating of 116.1) and the seventh-best defense (defensive rating of 113.8). Two reasons contribute to their record. Firstly, they don't consistently play solid defense for the entire 40 minutes, experiencing lapses that allow opponents to build leads.  Secondly, their performance in fourth-quarter crunch time situations is desperate. In games decided by fewer than three possessions, Crvena Zvezda has an incredible 1-8 record. They either win convincingly or lose in dramatic finishes, which is unsustainable, and luck is bound to turn in Ioannis Sfairopoulos' team's favor at some point. The absence of Adam Hanga, their crucial defensive player, in the last month has been a setback. While Branko Lazic's return has improved things on the defensive end a little bit, players like Nemanja Nedovic and Shabazz Napier must be more engaged, as offensive contributions alone are not enough. Real Madrid will understandably be the favorite in this clash as the best team in Europe. However, even they will occasionally lose games. Playing in front of 20,000 fans at the "Stark Arena" is no easy task for any team, and this is an opportunity for Crvena Zvezda to completely turn their season around. A win against such a formidable opponent could provide a different perspective on their situation. The red and whites have the offensive potential to engage in a shooting showdown with Real Madrid, and they will also need a significant dose of luck that has eluded them so far. Betting against the reigning European champions is never wise, but even in defeats, Crvena Zvezda doesn't usually go down without a fight. Another dramatic finish is the most realistic outcome here.

Alba Berlin – Barcelona: Catalan party in the German capital 19/12/23

Barcelona is undoubtedly going through a crisis. In the last round, they suffered a shocking home defeat against Milano. Their defense lacks the aggression seen at the beginning of the season, allowing an average of 86.6 points in the last five EuroLeague games. This defensive performance is not conducive to success in the competition, especially against teams from the top of the table. Fortunately for Barcelona, Alba Berlin is not in that category. The German capital club is at the bottom of the standings, presenting an ideal opportunity for the Catalans to demonstrate that their recent struggles are just a passing phase. In comparison to Alba Berlin, Barcelona holds advantages in every aspect. Whether it's individual quality, roster depth, the ability to play aggressive defense, control the tempo, rebounding, or assists—Barcelona excels. So, the key here lies in focus and concentration. After the defeat against Milano, it's realistic to expect a full 40 minutes of smart basketball from Barcelona. In that case, anything less than a comfortable win by at least eight or nine points would be surprising. If Alba's shooting is not at its usual level, this could turn into a much bigger loss for them.

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Baskonia: Coin toss game on neutral court 19/12/23

It is very difficult to predict the outcome of this game for several reasons. Considering that Maccabi Tel Aviv plays their home games on neutral court in Belgrade, they don't have the advantage they would have in front of their fans in Israel. The team's major issue is their complete disinterest in playing aggressive defense, a flaw particularly noticeable in the absence of a crowd that would surely express disapproval of such an approach. While Maccabi possesses exceptional offensive potential and is capable of scoring more than 80 points against any opponent, their failure to change their defensive approach may hinder them from replicating last season's success, where they were just one win away from reaching the Final Four. On the other hand, Baskonia heavily relies on three-point shooting. Their commitment is unquestionable as they give their all on the court. Since the arrival of Dusko Ivanovic, they have won seven out of nine EuroLeague games, significantly improving their position in the standings. They had a chance to climb to third place before this round but suffered an 81:91 loss to Virtus on their home court on Thursday. Virtus hit some tough three-pointers at crucial moments, while Baskonia missed. Markus Howard finished the game with only 11 points (3/10 from downtown). His long-range shots had previously decided games in favor of Baskonia, but now that wasn't the case. In this game, Baskonia's three-point shooting will again be a crucial factor. Given the lack of aggressiveness from Maccabi Tel Aviv, it's certain that the Spanish club will find ways to create open looks. Chima Moneke will have an advantage against Maccabi's power forwards, and if he performs at his best, it could be the key to Baskonia's victory. On the other hand, Lorenzo Brown and Wade Baldwin are capable of destroying even the best EuroLeague teams, making predicting the winner extremely challenging, with possibilities on both sides. The defensive approach of Maccabi and Baskonia's shooting percentages will answer the question, but there's no doubt that we can expect a showdown with more possessions than usual and a lot of transition play.

Virtus – Olympiacos: It is always a mistake to underestimate the club from Piraeus, 19/12/23

And that will be the case here. Olympiacos enters this game after a lackluster performance against Valencia, losing by 56:63. They scored only 38 points before the fourth quarter. The offensive struggles for the red and whites are not nothing new. It is expected, considering that the entire offense in recent years revolved around Sasha Vezenkov and Kostas Sloukas. Establishing a new hierarchy without them in just three months is not an easy task, and it's logical for Olympiacos to experience ups and downs. Only Isaiah Canaan and Alec Peters are capable of consistently hitting from beyond the arc. Peters didn't play against Valencia due to the birth of his child, and his absence was immediately felt. Ignas Brazdeikis failed to meet expectations, and Nigel Williams-Goss and Shaq McKissic are just returning from injuries. Time is not on Olympiacos' side at the moment, but this game could provide a significant boost. Because a win against Virtus would undoubtedly instill great confidence. The team from Bologna lost at home to Zalgiris in the opening round of the EuroLeague, and since then, they have triumphed seven times in a row in the university city. This streak could very well be at risk here. Olympiacos is aware that the only way to win this game is through outstanding defense, and they are capable of doing so. Forty minutes of high intensity, steals, and easy transition points. If they can hit open three-pointers, they'll have a great chance. What head coach Georgios Bartzokas needs to change is the role of Nikola Milutinov. In a situation where Olympiacos doesn't have many offensive options, it's absurd for one of the best European centers to spend less than 20 minutes on average on the court. It's time for the Serbian center to unleash his beast mode and be the key player in a significant victory. Virtus will rightfully approach the game as the favorite, and many may prematurely favor the hosts. However, it's easy to forget that we're talking about Olympiacos team that has been at the forefront of European basketball for the past few years.

Valencia – Partizan: Three-point shooting percentages will be crucial. 19/12/23

Partizan is the only team on a four-game winning streak in the EuroLeague at this moment. Zeljko Obradovic is once again showing why he is the greatest European coach of all time. His team is playing perfectly even without Aleksa Avramovic, Frank Kaminsky and Uros Trifunovic lately due to injuries. However, the return of their star player, Kevin Punter, has made a significant difference. In the four mentioned wins. He has averaged nearly 20 points and poses a real threat to opposing defenses. On the other hand, Valencia has won three consecutive games, including a significant triumph over Olympiacos on the road, even without the injured Semi Ojeleye, who is expected to return for this duel. Besides him, Valencia signed Damien Inglis and Brandon Davies over the summer, among others, and these three players form an exceptional defensive wall. They can defend all five positions and are the main reason why Valencia has the second-best defense in the EuroLeague (105.4 defensive rating). Now they will have to stop the best offense in the competition, which will not be an easy task. Partizan plays with a lot of defensive switches, often opening up many three-point opportunities for the opponent. For Valencia, it will be essential for the players who get open shots to convert them. This responsibility will most likely fall on Victor Claver, Stefan Jovic, Josep Puerto and Damien Inglis. Partizan will take that risk, and the success of these players will largely determine the final outcome. As for the visitors, they will need another impressive performance from Kevin Punter and PJ Dozier. They will often play one-on-one against their defenders. Both have played several stellar games lately, but sustaining that level night after night is not an easy task. This is probably the point where they may falter a bit against an outstanding defense, which the host will know how to capitalize on. Valencia won both games against Partizan last season, which is also a noteworthy fact. It's foolish to underestimate any team coached by Zeljko Obradovic and write them off in advance, but this is a very challenging matchup for them.

Fenerbahce – Zalgiris: Expect a fight to the last breath. 20/12/23, CET 17:30

An unusual situation unfolded on Thursday evening after Zalgiris lost to Partizan. All European media, including those close to the club, reported that head coach Kazys Maksvytis had been dismissed, and Andrea Trinchieri was set to become the new head coach. Twelve hours later, the club issued a statement expressing support for the head coach. Allegedly, the players were shocked to hear about Maksvytis's dismissal and urgently requested a meeting with the board management, demanding a reversal of the decision. General Manager Paulius Jankunas did not deny reports of contact with Trinchieri, suggesting where there's smoke, there's fire. In addition to the Zalgiris players, the entire basketball community was surprised. Although Georgios Bartzokas was named Coach of the Year for the EuroLeague 2022/2023 season, Kazys Maksvytis deserved that honor the most. With one of the three individually weakest teams in the competition, he finished in seventh place, creating a significant overachievement. Now, at 5-9, the club's management seems to have lost touch with reality, wanting to replicate those results, indicating a lack of realism. On paper, Zalgiris has a roster of equal quality to Asvel and Alba Berlin, who are at 2-9, and there's no doubt that coach Maksvytis extracts the maximum potential. It's simply not possible to achieve such overachievement every year, especially with the absence of three injured players (Lukas Lekavicius, Brady Manek, Arnas Butkevicius). Such events usually lead to one thing, an extraordinary level of dedication. Zalgiris players saved their coach's job off the court, and now they will evidently have to do the same on the court. The task for Zalgiris will be extremely challenging as they visit Fenerbahce, which also changed its head coach a few days ago. Sarunas Jasikevicius succeeded Dimitris Itoudis and secured an easy win over Monaco in his debut. On paper, Fenerbahce has one of the most powerful teams in Europe, but a tough schedule and injury problems are more significant reasons for their poor record than any bad job by Itoudis. Jasikevicius will undoubtedly try to make some changes, and there may be ups and downs until things align as he envisions. It's hard to expect Zalgiris to secure a victory, although not impossible. Still, if the words of support for Maksvytis translate onto the court, this game could be much more interesting and close than the numbers on paper suggest.

Monaco – Panathinaikos: The derby of the round that won't be pretty to watch, 20/12/23, CET 18:00

Because it will be played in a slowly pace with a lot of poor offensive decisions on both sides. Monaco is not meeting expectations, having what is considered a top 3 roster in Europe on paper. Their performance heavily relies on Mike James, who is playing at an MVP level, deciding several games with his clutch three-pointers. Without his contributions, Monaco might have found themselves at 6-8 rather than 8-6. The pressure on head coach Sasa Obradovic is immense, and consecutive losses could have severe consequences for him. Despite having exceptional defensive players like John Brown, Donta Hall, Mam Jaiteh, Jaron Blossomgame and Terry Tarpey, Monaco surprisingly ranks 12th in defense. On the offensive end, Monaco possesses players like Mike James, Jordan Loyd, Elie Okobo and Kemba Walker. Instead of playing at a faster pace with more transition, they tend to use up most of the shot clock and resolve attacks in the final seconds. Overall, this team has the potential for much more. On the other hand, Panathinaikos has assembled one of the most expensive rosters in the EuroLeague, but it is evident that time is needed for the team to put things together. Compared to last season, only Marius Grigonis remains among the significant players. Defensively, Panathinaikos looks solid, boasting one of the best defensive ratings, surpassed only by Real Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona. However, their struggle lies in finding efficient solutions on the offensive end. Kostas Sloukas is not performing at the expected level, and they heavily rely on Kendrick Nunn's one-on-one plays. It's challenging for Panathinaikos to expect a win by scoring 80 or more points in this game. A more realistic approach would be to adapt to Monaco's playing style, focus on better defense, and aim for a game with fewer than 160 total points. While the "Greens" are capable of causing an upset, a safe prediction would be a low-possession game with fewer points than the average.

Bayern – Anadolu Efes: Strength under the basket as a decisive factor 20/12/23, CET 19:30

In favor of the home team! If not the best, then Serge Ibaka is definitely a top 3 center in the EuroLeague based on his performance so far. The former NBA champion is playing at an impressive level, not only defensively locking down the paint but also making a significant contribution on the offensive end. He effortlessly handles situations in the low post, and his three-pointer decided the game against Milano. Additionally, Bayern has several exceptional athletes, with Isaac Bonga standing out among them. This is why they lead the league in rebounds per game by a wide margin (39.1), presenting a significant challenge for Anadolu Efes, which records the fewest rebounds in the EuroLeague on average (30.2). In this game, Anadolu Efes won't have many second-chance opportunities, while on the other side of the court, the scenario will be completely different. In such situations, the underdog team has only one way to win the game, and that is through an impressive three-point shooting performance and high percentages, making offensive rebounds unnecessary. This means that Shane Larkin must once again score over 25 points, along with a similar performance from Darius Thompson as the second offensive option. Against Bayern's excellent defense, this will be a challenging task. Head coach Erdem Can has done a fantastic job in the last two weeks with a significantly shortened rotation due to injuries, but this game is simply the ultimate mismatch under the basket.

Milano – Asvel: The hosts must remain grounded and humble 20/12/23, CET 19:30

The past few weeks have been like a nightmare for Milano and their head coach Ettore Messina. Media speculated about his dismissal on a daily basis, and the pressure was huge. However, owner Giorgio Armani and the club's second man, Pantaleo Dell'Orco, did an unexpected thing. While everyone in Italy expected them to fire the most successful Italian coach, they extended his contract until 2026, putting an end to the discussions. And what happened? A reaction occurred. Without injured Nikola Mirotic and Maodo Lo, two of their top three players, they went to Barcelona and defeated the second-best team in the EuroLeague by 86:90. Shavon Shields has been playing in a trance lately and can be considered the best forward in the entire competition at this moment. What is crucial for Milano is to remain composed and not let the victory against Barcelona carry them away. They have an extremely favorable schedule in the next seven rounds, playing six times at home against teams mostly from the lower part of the table, such as Asvel. This is an opportunity to completely turn the season around and get back on track, but they must approach each game as they did in Barcelona on Friday. They face a team led by Gianmarco Pozzecco, the head coach of the Italian national team and a former assistant to Messina in Milano. This could pose a certain danger, and it's not impossible for the French visitors to shock Milano here and show them that the victory in Barcelona was just luck. Still, only a brave person would bet against the home team and on a team with a 2-12 record. Nonetheless, don't be surprised if Milano wins this in a dramatic finish rather than with a convincing double-digit margin.