Euroleague - Round 14

Crvena Zvezda – Alba Berlin: Only one outcome is possible, 14/12/23

And that's a win for Crvena Zvezda. They've assembled the most expensive team in the history of their club, yet they find themselves at 4-9 in the EuroLeague. Defensive weaknesses become apparent in the backcourt as Milos Teodosic, Nemanja Nedovic and Yago dos Santos are not strong defenders, and Adam Hanga is sidelined due to injury. While all three mentioned players can score over 20 points when in good form, serious offenses exploit their shortcomings on the other side of the court. A significant advantage for Crvena Zvezda lies in rebounds. Luka Mitrovic is having the best season of his life, recording 11 offensive rebounds against Baskonia last week. Along with Joel Bolomboy, he creates numerous second-chance opportunities from which the red and white team benefits.However, all the positive aspects on that side of the court are overshadowed by the aforementioned defensive mistakes. Another issue is the poor start in games. Against Valencia and Baskonia, Crvena Zvezda conceded a combined total of 108 points in the first halves, while allowing only 64 points combined in the second halves. Even against Anadolu Efes, they conceded 15 points less in the second half. Head coach Ioannis Sfairopoulos must find a balance, as time is running out to stay in the race for the EuroLeague quarterfinals. Along with Asvel, Alba Berlin is the weakest team in the competition, and the home team's win is not in jeopardy. However, with the return of Matt Thomas, Sterling Brown and Louis Olinde, the visitors have the quality not to lose this by a double-digit margin.

Zalgiris – Partizan: A good offense beats a good defense, 14/12/23

In basketball and sports, the phrase "offense wins games, but defense wins championships" is often heard, and this is precisely a game where the offense should prevail. Partizan has an offensive rating of 121.3, with only Real Madrid being more powerful than the black and whites from Belgrade. Zalgiris' defensive rating is only 115.4, but they play much better on that side of the court. They always know what they want and are often able to limit the opponent below their average. However, this is not a game in which they can hope for great things. One reason is the short rotation due to injuries to Arnas Butkevicius, Lukas Lekavicius and Brady Manek. Partizan will also play without Aleksa Avramovic and possibly Uros Trifunovic, but they are currently players from the end of the bench who do not have such a significant impact on Partizan game. In the previous three rounds, Partizan defeated Panathinaikos, Monaco and Milano, even though they had shooting crises during certain sequences of the games. What can be encouraging for them is an exceptionally good defense in crucial moments of all three previous games. Against Panathinaikos, they were trailing by 10 points with four minutes to go, but then they hit everything in offense and defensively stopped all attempts by the "Greens." Against Milano, from the middle of the third to the middle of the fourth quarter, Partizan allowed only four points. When head coach Zeljko Obradovic sends on the court a lineup consisting of Dozier-Punter-Nunnally-LeDay-Caboclo, they can defensively stop much more powerful offenses than Zalgiris. If the three-point shooting percentages don't betray the visitors, they will almost certainly return to Belgrade triumphantly.

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Anadolu Efes: Fatigue will be a decisive factor, 14/12/23

Anadolu Efes has been playing without eight injured players for the past 10 days. Out of the 12 individuals projected to be in the team, only Shane Larkin, Darius Thompson, Ercan Osmani and Tyrique Jones are healthy. Recently, Mike Daum and Daniel Oturu were signed so that head coach Erdem Can could have seven or eight players available, and there are slim chances that Tibor Pleiss and Elijah Bryant will return for this match. Both were expected to be absent for another seven days, but due to the problematic situation, their recovery must be expedited. Despite expectations that Anadolu Efes would struggle in such a state, the opposite has happened. Shane Larkin has demonstrated why he was the best player in the EuroLeague for a couple of years and led the team to two titles. Darius Thompson has taken on a huge responsibility, and Tyrique Jones is playing his best basketball. Huge credit also goes to head coach Erdem Can, who did not allow everything to fall apart. They defeated Panathinaikos and Alba Berlin in the EuroLeague, and then outplayed Fenerbahce in a big Turkish Super League derby on Monday. However, this incredible streak must come to an end somewhere, and that place is Belgrade. Maccabi Tel Aviv plays its home games in the capital of Serbia and does not have the traditional home-court advantage, but regardless, this is a game where they must perform. Statistically, Maccabi has one of the worst defenses in the EuroLeague, which sounds incredible given the defensive talents they have under the basket with Josh Nebo and Jasiel Rivero. Lorenzo Brown, Wade Baldwin and Bonzie Colson can also play high-level defense, which means it's all about the approach. The entire situation in Israel has definitely disrupted the team, which is normal, but a reaction is expected after the defeat to Virtus in the previous round. Maccabi always wants to play fast with a lot of running, something that will not suit Anadolu Efes in this situation. Accumulated fatigue among the best players who have been playing over 30 minutes for several games will come to the fore, and Maccabi will secure the win by at least two or three possessions.

Baskonia – Virtus: The club from Bologna is not the same at home and away, 14/12/23

Virtus is the biggest surprise of the EuroLeague season so far. Despite being projected by almost no one to be in the top 8, they are at 9-4 and hold the third place. They are particularly impressive at home in Bologna, where they have seven consecutive wins, including triumphs over teams such as Fenerbahce, Barcelona, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Crvena Zvezda and Anadolu Efes. However, their performance on the road tells a different story. In their last three away games in the EuroLeague, they lost to Bayern, Panathinaikos and Real Madrid by a double-digit margin. They were also defeated by Milano in the Serie A last weekend, who played without their star player Nikola Mirotic. Now, Virtus faces a trip to Vitoria to play against a team that is in the best form in Europe alongside Real Madrid. Since Dusko Ivanovic took over Baskonia, they have a 7-1 record in the EuroLeague, despite facing a challenging schedule. Marcus Howard is shooting incredibly well, making three-pointers off-balance, over two defenders, and when he's in the zone, he's impossible to defend. Chima Moneke is the fourth-best player in the competition according to the performance index rating, and apart from Maik Kotsar and Khalifa Diop, every player can hit a significant number of shots from beyond the arc. Last week, against Crvena Zvezda, coach Ivanovic used Howard for only 13 minutes and Moneke for only 16 minutes, and they still won. He wanted to rest them, and his team was consistently leading, so he could afford it. Baskonia is simply in such a good rhythm and playing so well that it would be a surprise if they don't secure another victory this week.

Real Madrid – Bayern: An extremely emotional game, 14/12/23

Because Pablo Laso is returning to Madrid as he is now the head coach of Bayern. Laso led Real from 2011 to 2022, winning two EuroLeague titles and six Liga Endesa championships with the team. He is considered one of the most successful coaches in the club's history, and Real Madrid is widely regarded as the biggest club in Europe. For Laso, this game will be more than just an ordinary match. Given that he left the club in not the best manner, there will be extra motivation to prove himself. Bayern has a 6-7 record in the EuroLeague, but six out of seven losses were by a single-digit margin. They fight until the very end, as seen last week against Olympiacos, even though they were without Serge Ibaka, Leandro Bolmaro, Vladimir Lucic and Andreas Obst. Ibaka and Bolmaro will definitely be on the plane to Madrid, and there is a small chance the same will be the case for the other two.Solid defense and determination in every game, coupled with coach Laso's motivation, give Bayern players the belief that they can put up a good performance in Madrid. However, posing a serious threat to Real seems unlikely. They are by far the best team in Europe at the moment, superior to Bayern by more than 10 points on neutral court. The question remains about Real's motivation and the margin by which they will outplay their opponents. Predicting this is tricky, but if Bayern finds a way to continue their strong defensive play, the game might see fewer than 165 points. However, the hosts will ultimately have the say in the outcome.

Asvel – Panathinaikos: Reaction game, 14/12/23

Panathinaikos has lost three consecutive games and currently holds a 6-7 record. During the summer, they assembled one of the most powerful teams in the EuroLeague and brought in Ergin Ataman, one of the most successful head coaches in the last 10 years. In November, Panathinaikos showed good performances, and while they continue to do a more than solid defensive job, their offense has been questionable. Kostas Sloukas has not lived up to the investment, and Jerian Grant cannot be the main offensive option at this level. Therefore, Kendrick Nunn was signed, bringing instant quality and as time progresses, he is expected to play a crucial role in the team's offensive progress. Panathinaikos' goal is not just to reach the playoffs but also to make it to the Final Four. Therefore, this is a "must-win" game in every aspect. Asvel is performing poorly, sitting at the bottom of the table, and they haven't secured a single win at home in the EuroLeague from six played games. The chances of changing this situation now are slim. Last week, they lost to Maccabi Tel Aviv and Valencia in front of their fans, and Panathinaikos is a better team than the mentioned rivals. Given the current situation, it is expected that Panathinaikos will show a reaction and secure the win. Asvel always fights until the very end, and it's possible that they won't allow the visitors to break their resistance until late in the fourth quarter. Still, Panathinaikos will find a way to victory, even if it's by a narrow margin, and that's all that matters for them.

Fenerbahce – Monaco: Make-or-break for the hosts, 15/12/23

Fenerbahce has faced a significant crisis in results, losing six out of the last seven games in the EuroLeague. Their only win came with a buzzer-beater by Yam Madar after a major mistake by Real Madrid in the inbound play. The crisis extends to the Turkish Super League as well, with recent losses to Besiktas and Anadolu Efes. These outcomes are unacceptable for a team that invested heavily and is led by Dimitris Itoudis, one of the most respected coaches in Europe. In defense of the hosts, their recent losses have mostly come on the road in the EuroLeague, with an exceptionally tough schedule. They now have a much easier schedule in the next two months, where they should finally meet expectations. A good start would undoubtedly be a win against Monaco, and Fenerbahce is more than capable of achieving that. Monaco holds an 8-5 record in the EuroLeague, which is better than the impression they have left so far. They have won several games in the final moments, largely thanks to the individual quality of Mike James, who has already made crucial shots this season. This matchup features teams with similar compositions. Monaco may have an advantage in the backcourt, but Fenerbahce has more quality players at the three and four positions. In front of a filled arena in Istanbul, they should find a way to triumph and demonstrate that their poor record is merely a result of a challenging schedule combined with a significant number of injuries in November, and nothing else.

Olympiacos – Valencia: Anything can happen, 15/12/23

Valencia is indeed one of the most unpredictable teams in Europe. After losing five consecutive games in the EuroLeague, along with a defeat to Bilbao in the Liga Endesa, it seemed like head coach Alex Mumbru might be on the verge of being fired. However, his team responded with victories against Crvena Zvezda, Asvel and Murcia, and things immediately looked different. Valencia has a strong starting lineup, with Semi Ojeleye and Brandon Davies forming one of the most powerful frontcourts in the EuroLeague. The issue is their lack of depth, and problems arise as soon as someone gets injured. In their losing streak, they were without Stefan Jovic, an extremely important player on both ends of the court. Although not a high scorer, when he organizes the game, things are different. He is a true floor general and brings composure. Now, with Jared Harper unavailable, there is one less player in the rotation. Valencia won against Olympiacos in Piraeus last season after a spectacular comeback in the fourth quarter. It is not unthinkable that something similar could happen again. On the other hand, the quality is on the side of the home team. Olympiacos may not have the offensive potential as last season, but they are always defensively capable of limiting the opponent to a low number of points. A lot will also depend on how the game unfolds. If Olympiacos starts well shooting-wise and hits a few three-pointers in the first quarter, they can undoubtedly secure a double-digit win. If that is not the case, Valencia has a chance. One thing is certain, both teams will primarily rely on their defense, which could lead to a game with slightly fewer possessions and points than usual.

Barcelona – Milano: There is no luck without Nikola Mirotic, 15/12/23

Nikola Mirotic will most likely miss another game for Milano. At least, if we are to believe head coach Ettore Messina, who stated that his star player will need a few more weeks of rest due to an Achilles tendon injury. Without him, Milano lost to Bayern and Partizan in the EuroLeague last week, despite playing two solid games. If they had Mirotic, things might have been different. Currently, the offense revolves around whether Shavon Shields can hit a large number of shots from distance, and even when he does, as in the previous two games, it's still not enough for a win. Milano won't be able to secure a win here either because Barcelona is currently on a much higher level in every aspect. On top of that, the Catalans will be extra motivated as they lost to Zaragoza in the domestic league last weekend, an outcome that won't please head coach Roger Grimau. Barcelona won't allow any complacency here, and another easy win can be expected. Last week, they outplayed Fenerbahce by 89:81, even though they were trailing by 12 points at halftime. Milano's only chance to avoid a double-digit loss is if Barcelona enters the last quarter with a significant lead, as they did against Panathinaikos a month ago, and then coach Grimau sends in bench players. In any other scenario, it would be surprising if this is not a double-digit victory for the hosts.