Euroleague - Round 17
Anadolu Efes – Fenerbahce: Streaks could be broken 28/12/23
Because Anadolu Efes cannot afford another defeat, or at least their head coach Erdem Can. He is under immense pressure, and could be fired if his team loses the fourth consecutive game in the EuroLeague. While the team struggled with injuries, the situation has improved with the return of Rodrigue Beaubois, Elijah Bryant and Ante Zizic. Only Will Clyburn and Derek Willis remain sidelined among key players. Shane Larkin is in exceptional form, and if Anadolu Efes starts winning more frequently, there could be talks of an MVP campaign for him. With Larkin, Thompson, Bryant and Zizic on the court, things look much different than a few weeks ago. It's time for Anadolu Efes to deliver a high-level performance as they have the potential to do so. To break their negative streak, they'll have to overcome a formidable opponent in Fenerbahce, which has won three consecutive games in the EuroLeague since Sarunas Jasikevicius took charge. Despite facing relatively weaker opponents, Fenerbahce's positive momentum is evident. However, their struggles at home against Zalgiris indicate that, despite the victories, their gameplay might not be at its peak. Even with a shortened rotation, Anadolu Efes defeated Panathinaikos a few weeks ago. For a similar outcome in this game, Larkin will once again need to perform at his highest level. If the losing streaks persist, the hosts might stay competitive until the end, potentially leading the game to a decisive last shot determining the winner.
Partizan – Virtus: Guests will walk into a cage full of hungry beasts 28/12/23
Partizan is performing exceptionally well in the EuroLeague. They have won five out of their last six games and are once again in race for the top 4. Everything changed when they signed center Bruno Caboclo. Before his arrival, the black and whites struggled significantly with defensive rebounds, allowing opponents 10 possessions more per game. In such circumstances, winning in this competition seemed almost impossible. However, as soon as Caboclo arrived, the problems under the basket were resolved, and results immediately started favoring Partizan. Not only did they outplay serious teams like Panathinaikos, Monaco and Milano at home, but they also secured victories on the road against Zalgiris and Valencia. However, Partizan suffered a shocking defeat against Zadar in the ABA League on Sunday. This meant saying goodbye to the first place, and it's almost certain that Crvena Zvezda will have the home-court advantage if the final series involves these two Belgrade clubs. This angered the fans, who criticized the Partizan players on social media, claiming they didn't take the game seriously. Head coach Zeljko Obradovic is undoubtedly upset, and there is no doubt that the players will take the court on Thursday with a strong desire to redeem themselves. Virtus is an ideal opponent for such a redemption. Despite their 11-5 record in the EuroLeague, it is a massive overachievement. Few saw them in the top 10 before the season, let alone in the top 4. This is simply not sustainable in the long run, and a drop in form is likely. Recently, it's evident that they don't perform equally well at home and away. Even in Bologna, where they have only one loss in the EuroLeague, they had to struggle to defeat Olympiacos. They have lost four out of their last five road games, and a similar fate likely awaits them in Belgrade. Partizan is a much more talented team, and in front of 20,000 fans, it's realistic for them to win by at least two possessions. At some point, the hosts should have a double-digit lead, and it's not unthinkable that the game will end that way.
Zalgiris – Maccabi Tel Aviv: Luck should turn in favor of the hosts 28/12/23
In the previous few rounds, Zalgiris has indeed been unlucky. They played excellent games against much more expensive opponents like Fenerbahce and Barcelona but were defeated in the final moments. All of this came after the club's management considered relieving head coach Kazys Maksvytis of his duties. However, Zalgiris players reacted and protected their head coach, who did an outstanding job with the team last season. In this campaign, Zalgiris often looks good rather than bad, but in several matches, luck has not been on their side. This could change in the upcoming game. Maccabi comes into this match in a less than ideal situation. They lost to Crvena Zvezda last week, and more painfully, they lost their superstar Wade Baldwin to injury. He will be absent for a month, putting the entire responsibility back on Lorenzo Brown. Additionally, Maccabi players are in conflict with the club. Due to the situation in Israel, their home EuroLeague games are played in Belgrade instead of Tel Aviv, and as a cost-cutting measure, the club decided to deduct 15% of players salaries. Foreign players protested and refused to travel for a domestic league match, so the atmosphere is not the best. Zalgiris is a much better team than their 5-11 record suggests. Maccabi does not have the same quality as Barcelona or Fenerbahce, and if Zalgiris repeats the performances from those two games, it's time for them to finally triumph. The only danger is their reliance on three-point shooting, and if that falters, they can lose to anyone. Fortunately, Maccabi plays one of the worst defenses in the entire competition, ensuring that Zalgiris will have plenty of open looks.
Asvel – Real Madrid: All but one scenario is a surprise 28/12/23
This is a clash between the worst and the best team in the EuroLeague. Asvel is at 2-14, while Real Madrid is at an impressive 15-1. Adding to Asvel's struggles, they have lost all eight home games in the EuroLeague so far. Now, in Villeurbanne, they face a team that has lost only one game, and that loss came through incredible mistakes in the fourth quarter and overtime in Istanbul against Fenerbahce. Everything seen so far points to one scenario – a victory for the visitors by a double-digit margin. While miracles can happen in sports and basketball, it would truly be a Christmas miracle if, for example, Asvel were to win here. Simply put, when you lose all eight home games, how do you beat by far most dominant team in Europe? Real Madrid will likely calculate a bit, and in such a game, there is no need for key players like Walter Tavares, Facundo Campazzo and Dzanan Musa to spend too much time on the court. They will play just enough to secure another triumph without expending too much energy. Even with such an approach, they are several levels above Asvel.
Panathinaikos – Crvena Zvezda: The three-point shot as a key factor 28/12/23
The only way for Crvena Zvezda to have a chance in this game is to shoot three-pointers at a high percentage. Players like Milos Teodosic, Nemanja Nedovic and Rokas Giedraitis are capable of doing so, but it will also depend significantly on the home team's defense. Teodosic had one of the best games of his career last week against Maccabi Tel Aviv. Considering that we are talking about one of the best European players of the 21st century, then it's clear how great game he had played. While it's not realistic for him to perform at that level every week, especially in these years, he remains a true leader of his team. For Crvena Zvezda to continue winning, Teodosic needs support from others. The problem for Crvena Zvezda is that apart from Teodosic, almost no one is capable of creating opportunities for other players after the departure of Shabazz Napier. Nedovic and Yago are scorers who more often look to create opportunities for themselves rather than for their teammates. Panathinaikos plays excellent perimeter defense with Nunn and Grant, and they will surely find a way to slow down Teodosic. Through Mitrovic and Bolomboy, the visitors can control the boards and the paint, but without a successful three-point shot, they won't find much success in the Greek capital. Panathinaikos is in good form, having won three consecutive road games. They are in a good rhythm, though they still lack the routine to win easily week after week. Nevertheless, quality is on their side. If Crvena Zvezda struggles to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc, Panathinaikos will likely win this with at least a three-possession lead. If the visitors' shooting is on point, this game could be dramatic until the very end.
Bayern – Valencia: The table does not reflect the real situation. 28/12/23
Bayern is a much better team than Valencia in every aspect. If they hadn't faced numerous issues with injuries and the form of some players, Bayern would surely have a better record than 7-9. Captain Vladimir Lucic played his first games of the season just last week, and the top shooter Andreas Obst has been injured multiple times. With them in the lineup, things look significantly different, as evident in the convincing win against Anadolu Efes. They couldn't find an answer to Mike James against Monaco, but such games happen to every team in the EuroLeague occasionally. It's much more realistic for Valencia in Munich to have a performance similar to Anadolu Efes rather than playing at the level of Monaco, especially since they are coming without several key players. Jared Harper, Semi Ojeleye and Victor Claver are injured, and all of them play crucial roles in Alex Mumbru's system. Even Damien Inglis suffered a back injury over the weekend, meaning there's a chance he might not travel to Germany. Even if they had all players available, Valencia would still be the underdog. Their greatest strength is toughness in the paint, brought by players like Brandon Davies and the aforementioned Ojeleye and Inglis. The problem is that they will now run into the wall named Serge Ibaka. As physically powerful as Davies is, Ibaka is twice as potent. Simply put, this is a bad matchup for the visitors. Where they excel, Bayern is excellent. And where Valencia often struggles (shooting from distance), Bayern can gain a significant advantage if Francisco, Obst and Edwards are in good mood. Regardless of how this match unfolds, it's hard to imagine the visitors securing a victory. In the most realistic scenario, the hosts will triumph by at least two possessions, maybe even by a double-digit margin.
Milano – Baskonia: A much more critical game for the hosts 28/12/23
During the summer, Milano assembled a roster that was expected to compete for the top 4 and potentially a spot in the Final Four. They signed the most wanted player in the market, Nikola Mirotic. However, as soon as the season started, significant problems emerged. Milano's results didn't match expectations, and to make matters worse, Mirotic has been injured for several weeks and won't play until the second half of January. Maodo Lo is also sidelined, prompting Ettore Messina to make a move. Shabazz Napier has returned to the club, but he won't be eligible to play until the EuroLeague Round 18, meaning he will miss this game. With all these issues and absences, Milano must find a way to outperform Baskonia. Currently standing at 6-10, another loss could push them further away from the top 8. They need to be in a position on the table that, when all players become available in the second half of January, they have a realistic chance to string together consecutive wins and close the gap. Therefore, they must not fall too far behind, and that could happen if they lose to Baskonia. Shavon Shields might be the best forward in the EuroLeague, and he will once again have to lead the offense and score over 25 points. We've seen him capable of such performances multiple times. In addition to Shields' offensive contributions, Milano needs to play defense according to its potential. While lacking Mirotic and Lo may limit their offensive firepower, they can excel defensively. The primary focus will be on slowing down Chima Moneke. Markus Howard is difficult to defend, as he will shoot eight or nine three-pointers from impossible positions. The outcome of the game will largely depend on how many of those shots he makes. Predicting the winner is challenging. Milano will try to impose a slow tempo, while Baskonia will aim to play at a faster pace. The more successful team in executing their strategy is likely to emerge victorious. It's certain that this game is more critical for Milano. If they fall to 6-11, the road ahead becomes extremely long. On the other hand, a loss for Baskonia wouldn't be as detrimental.
Alba Berlin – Olympiacos: Nervousness 29/12/23 CET 20:00
The only thing that can threaten Olympiacos in this game is their own nervousness, which is a much bigger opponent for them than Alba Berlin. The club from Piraeus is searching for scapegoats for their poor results everywhere except in their own backyard. With the departure of Sasha Vezenkov and Kostas Sloukas, their offense has become unwatchable. All the things that characterized them, such as excellent ball movement, have disappeared. This is normal because they haven't replaced those players with ones of identical quality. Now, their offense looks subpar, but fortunately, their defense is still at a high level. This has resulted in a modest 8-8 record in the EuroLeague.
Instead of accepting this and focusing on what he does best, head coach Georgios Bartzokas spends most of his time talking to the referees and gesturing about their decisions. He does this to such an extent that he often instills nervousness in his own team. Against Asvel in the last round, they had complete control of the game until Bartzokas started his show on a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, unnerving his own players who committed two unsportsmanlike fouls, bringing the opponent back into the game. Fortunately for them, Asvel didn't have the quality to turn it in their favor as Virtus did a few days earlier.
With their defense, Olympiacos has the quality to secure another EuroLeague victory with at least a two-possession difference. There will surely be moments when they will grab a double-digit lead in Berlin. If they then focus solely on basketball, they can maintain a significant advantage without any drama. Otherwise, anything is possible. Nevertheless, Olympiacos is a team with ample experience to learn a lesson from last week.
Monaco – Barcelona: A derby of the round that may not be 29/12/23 CET 21:00
Monaco and Barcelona entered the season with the highest ambitions. Both clubs aim to reach the Final Four and ultimately fight for the EuroLeague title. In pursuit of this goal, Monaco retained all the players who led them to the Final Four last season. Additionally, they strengthened their roster with signings like Kemba Walker, Petr Cornelie and Mam Jaiteh. On the other hand, Barcelona, in their quest for success, pointed fingers at head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius and star player Nikola Mirotic, showing them the exit door.
This strategy initially yielded results for Barcelona. They played exceptionally well in October and November, but that's not the case now. Not only have they suffered defeats to Alba Berlin and Milano, but they are also losing in the domestic league to Manresa and Zaragoza. One Barcelona player is worth more than the budgets of those Spanish clubs combined. It's now evident how inexperienced coach Roger Grimau is, and he seems to struggle to find a way out of the crisis. A victory in this game would certainly change the narrative, but Monaco is equally eager for the win.
Monaco experienced an incredible painful loss at home to Panathinaikos last week, putting head coach Sasa Obradovic under pressure once again. It was the third time this season they've suffered consecutive defeats, but on each occasion, they bounced back with victories on the road. This team displays immense character. Mike James is playing at an MVP level, and Monaco will be focused on securing the win. If that happens, Barcelona won't find much success in this matchup. Monaco isn't the type of team to demolish opponents, but victory shouldn't be in question if their approach is right.