Euroleague - Round 18

Fenerbahce – Crvena Zvezda: Jasikevicius changed everything

From the moment the Lithuanian coach took over Fenerbahce, they are looking impressive. They have won all four games under his leadership in the EuroLeague and are back in the race for the top 4 and home court advantage in the quarterfinals. Nick Calathes is playing in the best form in recent years, which is particularly significant considering his public conflict with Jasikevicius after leaving Barcelona. They have patched up their relationship, and the Greek point guard is showing why he has been one of the best European players in his position for a decade. Sertac Sanli has also found a certain rhythm that he didn't have under the previous coach, showcasing the depth that Fenerbahce has in its roster. They will continue their winning streak in this round as well. Crvena Zvezda simply isn't in a position to threaten any serious team, especially not on the road. Apart from Milos Teodosic, there is no one who can create for this team. This significantly eases the task for all opponents. Panathinaikos demonstrated in the last round how to play against them. With aggressive defense on Teodosic, they forced him to get rid of the ball, and the rest of the team didn't know what to do with it. This resulted in only 65 points scored for the red and whites.  Now, they also have the young Nikola Topic, but it's not realistic to expect him to make a significant impact in the EuroLeague from the first game. The only chance for Crvena Zvezda is to play the best defensive game of the season. If that doesn't happen, we will probably see a game similar to the one against Panathinaikos. The hosts will control everything, have a double-digit lead for most of the game, and ultimately triumph without any problems.

Zalgiris – Alba Berlin: A new era in Kaunas

After the defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the previous round, Zalgiris parted ways with Kazys Maksvytis. The Lithuanian coach had a significant overachievement with the team in the previous EuroLeague season, but things didn't go well in the current campaign. Two weeks ago, Lithuanian media reported his dismissal, with Andrea Trinchieri set to replace him. Players reacted, rallying in support of their coach, leading the management to reconsider, offering public support to Maksvytis. However, after three more losses in the EuroLeague, Trinchieri was indeed promoted in Kaunas. Zalgiris' problem is undoubtedly not solely in poor leadership. This team simply lacks the quality to contend for a playoff spot. They didn't have it last season either, and miracles don't happen every year. Two weeks before the season started, Zalgiris sold Ignas Brazdeikis to Olympiacos without finding a replacement. While they may not have had luck in some games, the impression is that blame should fall on general manager Paulius Jankunas, who has done a poor job since taking over from Paulius Motiejunas. Besides Keenan Evans, no one consistently performs well, and Trinchieri will likely find it challenging to change much, despite being regarded as one of the best European coaches. A positive for Trinchieri is that his first game is against Alba Berlin, a struggling team. However, every beginning can be tougher than expected. Many will predict a comfortable win for the hosts due to the new coach and anticipated shock therapy. Indeed, Zalgiris will likely find a way to triumph eventually, but Alba will surely offer resistance. It's not inconceivable for the guests to lead in the third quarter or stay within a possession or two. Zalgiris will likely go on a run at some point, ultimately deciding the game in their favor, but expecting a double-digit victory may not be realistic.

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Monaco: Bad matchup for the Israelis

In the first part of the season, Monaco demolished Maccabi Tel Aviv by 107:79. It was the most convincing triumph for Sasa Obradovic's team in the EuroLeague this season. In that game, it was evident how Monaco does not suit well for the reigning Israeli champions. Everything that Maccabi can do well, Monaco does even better. Mike James is playing at an MVP level and is a much better leader on the court than Lorenzo Brown on the other side. Donta Hall and Donatas Motiejunas have an edge over Josh Nebo and Jasiel Rivero in the paint, while Elie Okobo and Alpha Diallo are options that Maccabi currently lacks, especially if Wade Baldwin is unable to play due to injury, making him doubtful for this match. The most significant difference in favor of Monaco is their defense. Maccabi limited Zalgiris to 70 points in the last round. That was their best defensive performance of the season, but they looked poor 16 times before that on that side of the court. And it's not realistic for what was seen on Thursday to become the standard. Monaco has several outstanding defenders, led by John Brown. This game will be played on neutral court in Belgrade without the presence of an audience, so Maccabi doesn't have home court advantage. If the clash had taken place in Tel Aviv, things would have been quite different. In this situation, James will likely lead his team to another important win.

Olympiacos – Milano: Ultra slow pace

When these two teams faced each other over two months ago, Milano won by 65:53. The pace was extremely slow, and the three-point shooting percentages were terrible. Shots are expected to go in at a higher rate this time, but the pace won't change. The guests cannot afford any other style of play if they want another EuroLeague win. In the last round, they played without Nikola Mirotic, Shavon Shields, Maodo Lo, Shabazz Napier and Giampaolo Ricci. Many expected that will be impossible for them to maintain the pace against Baskonia in such circumstances, but they imposed their own tempo. They played excellent defense and stopped all primary Baskonia offensive options, limiting them to only 67 points. Milano will come to Piraeus with the same idea because only Napier will be available counting those five absences from the last round. Olympiacos has significant offensive problems this season. Isaiah Canaan and Alec Peters are shooting very well and might be having the best seasons of their careers, but everyone else has terrible three-point shooting percentages. This will make Milano's job easier. Nicolo Melli, Johannes Voigtmann, Kyle Hines and Alex Poythress have the strength to win the battle in the paint, and the goal will be to force players like Kostas Papanikolaou, Giannoulis Larentzakis and Thomas Walkup to take many shots from a distance. The outcome of the game will depend on their accuracy. Due to Milano's defensive approach, they will have open looks, and if they hit their shots, Olympiacos can hope for an easy win. If not, the visitors will have a chance. However, the safest outcome is a game with a small number of possessions and definitely less than 155 points. It's highly likely that it will be below 150 points as well.

Partizan – Asvel: There is nothing much to say

Because anything other than a convincing double-digit win for Partizan would be a huge surprise. In the last round, the black and whites unexpectedly lost to Virtus on their home court. They didn't play poorly, and even head coach Zeljko Obradovic praised his team's approach despite the loss. Simply put, their best players Kevin Punter and Zach LeDay missed a lot of open three-pointers, which rarely happens to them. Moreover, Virtus made a significant number of tough shots from beyond the arc, and it was simply a night when the black and whites were unlucky. Even if they have another such bad night, Asvel is not a team that can capitalize on it. At this moment, Asvel is the worst team in the EuroLeague with only two wins in 17 played games. Their defense is poor, and their offense is even worse. Their best player Nando de Colo is injured and will likely miss this road game as well. Paris Lee, Joffrey Lauvergne and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot lead their offense, and except for the last one, the others would struggle to find contracts in other EuroLeague clubs. Partizan dominated Asvel in Villeurbanne at the beginning of the season, and a similar outcome can be expected now. The guests might keep it even for 15 minutes, but that's all they can do. Partizan will overwhelm them in the second half and secure an easy double-digit victory, potentially even exceeding a 20-point lead at some point.

Valencia – Anadolu Efes: Reality suggests one thing, experience another

There is no doubt that Valencia is in better situation at this moment. They have a defensive rating of 105.9, and only Real Madrid is more successful on that side of the court. In the last round, they were without five players in Munich and still lost by a minimal margin (85:84). It's true that Bayern was left without Sergio Ibaka at the last minute due to illness, but Valencia was also without Damien Inglis, Stefan Jovic, Jared Harper, Victor Claver and Semi Ojeleye. All of them play significant roles in coach Alex Mumbru's system. Jovic and Inglis have returned, which is good news, and Justin Anderson and Kevin Pangos have been signed, adding even more quality players to Valencia's roster. In such a moment, it's clear that they are absolute favorites against Anadolu Efes, and it's realistic for them to secure a win in front of their fans. However, a strong answer from Anadolu Efes should be expected. They have suffered four consecutive losses in the EuroLeague, and a 7-10 record is not satisfying for the club with aspirations for the Final Four. Injuries have crippled them, but things are slowly improving since Rodrigue Beaubois, Elijah Bryant and Tibor Pleiss returned, and Mike Daum and Daniel Oturu proving to be useful additions. However, everything in the offense begins and ends with Shane Larkin.  If Anadolu Efes were winning  games, Larkin might even be a top candidate for MVP. It's nearly impossible to stop him one-on-one, but he desperately needs help from his teammates. Darius Thompson is capable of more than what he has shown in the past few weeks, and for Anadolu Efes to beat Valencia on the road, someone needs to step up alongside Larkin. Without a good three-point shooting performance, they have little to seek here, but if they find their rhythm, they could pull off a surprise. After all, history teaches us that good teams rarely lose five times in a row in the EuroLeague, and Valencia is not a bad place to break that negative streak.

Baskonia – Panathinaikos: Everything is in Makrus Howard's hands 

The entire game and success of Baskonia depend on their star player, Markus Howard. He has the freedom to take over 10 three-pointers per game, often shooting from unbalanced positions, but he mostly makes them. When he's on fire, it's nearly impossible to stop him. In his outstanding performances, Baskonia has defeated teams like Barcelona, Olympiacos, Anadolu Efes and Fenerbahce this season. However, problems arise when Howard misses shots, as was the case in the last round against Milano, who played without five key players. In those moments, Baskonia fails to capitalize on the opponent's issues because Howard's misses unsettle the entire team, leading to losses even against weaker opponents, as seen multiple times in the Liga Endesa. Panathinaikos is on a four-game winning streak in the EuroLeague, with three wins on the road. They have excellent momentum and heavily rely on their defense. Jerian Grant and Kendrick Nunn do a great job in the backcourt, while Mathias Lessort statistically stands out as the best center in the EuroLeague so far. Dinos Mitoglou is having the best season of his career, and Marius Grigonis has rediscovered his old form from his time with Zalgiris. Panathinaikos has significant upside and will likely progress throughout the season, but they may also experience setbacks. To overcome Baskonia on the road, two things must happen. First, they need to play outstanding defense against Howard, and second, their shooting percentages must be solid. The problem is that Howard rarely has two consecutive bad games, making it more realistic that he will find the positive momentum at the "Fernando Buesa Arena" and destroy Panathinaikos this time.

Virtus – Bayern: It is impossible to explain Virtus' success

Last season, Virtus finished the EuroLeague in 14th place with 14 wins and 20 losses. During the summer, they lost important players such as Milos Teodosic, Mam Jaiteh, Semi Ojeleye and Kyle Weems. On the other hand, significant signings include only Bryant Dunston and Achille Polonara. On paper, Virtus is not definitively a better team than the previous year. Additionally, they parted ways with former head coach Sergio Scariolo just 10 days before the start of the season. Nobody had them in playoff projections, but they are currently at 12-5 after 17 games, holding the second spot. Luca Banchi is likely to receive the Coach of the Year award unless Virtus experiences a significant decline in the next three months.The reasons for Virtus' success can be attributed to several factors. Toko Shengelia is playing at an MVP level, elevated under Banchi's coaching, making challenging for everyone to defend him one-on-one in the low post. Dunston brings championship experience and solidity to the paint, while Daniel Hackett, Isaia Cordinier and Awudu Abass are hitting three-pointers more consistently than in previous years. Marco Belinelli has gained more freedom under Banchi compared to Scariolo, possibly a key reason. Banchi gave freedom to all his players, and with their experience, they know what works smartly on the court. If Virtus maintains its form and qualifies for the playoffs or even the Final Four, it would be one of the biggest surprises in EuroLeague in the past decade. Yesterday, Ante Zizic was signed as a replacement for the injured Devontae Cacok. On paper, Bayern should be a team that poses a challenging matchup for Virtus, as demonstrated in Munich a month ago when they easily defeated them. Serge Ibaka is crucial for the visitors, excelling on both ends of the court. He not only anchors the defense but is also the most reliable scoring source in the offense. Without him, Bayern struggles and performs below its usual level, as seen against Valencia last week. With Ibaka, they can challenge and defeat better teams like Virtus or Partizan. Andreas Obst and Carsen Edwards are shooting better than at the start of the season, so Bayern can expect a competitive game in Bologna. Betting against Virtus is not wise based on recent performances, but Bayern has a way to play against them and possibly secure a win. Whether they succeed is a completely different question, but the game might unfold as a close contest until the very end.

Barcelona – Real Madrid: The worst possible moment for the Catalans

Not only that Barcelona is playing the worst basketball this season, but they have been displaying the poorest performance in the last five years over the past 30 days. In the Liga Endesa, they are losing to much weaker teams like Manresa and Zaragoza, while Unicaja humiliated them by 91:71. They suffered an identical defeat to Monaco in the EuroLeague, preceded by losses to Alba Berlin and Milano. The situation is nothing short of catastrophic. General manager Juan Carlos Navarro publicly supported head coach Roger Grimau, stating that the team still has time to achieve all its goals this season, but there is no escaping their poor form. The question arises: how can Barcelona in such a state defeat Real Madrid, who boasts a 16-1 record in the EuroLeague and appears frighteningly strong? From a positive perspective for the hosts, a victory against their biggest rival could help erase the memory of those previous defeats. However, Barcelona has already lost to Real Madrid three times this season, all occurring in September and October when the Catalans were playing their best basketball. Los Blancos are still performing at that level, while Barcelona doesn't resemble even a faint shadow of that team from October. In sports, anything is possible, but for the hosts to create an upset, they will have to play entirely differently from all their other games in the last month. Otherwise, Real Madrid will likely comfortably defeat them by at least two or three possessions, if not more.