Euroleague - Round 20

09/01/24 – 10/01/24

Fenerbahce – Partizan: Bad momentum for the guests

In the previous EuroLeague round, Partizan suffered their most painful defeat of the season, being convincingly beaten by their eternal rival Crvena Zvezda with a score of 88:72. Head coach Zeljko Obradovic pointed out that his team had no time for practice in the last 15 days due to extensive travels, and it reflected in their performances. Several players, such as Frank Kaminsky, James Nunnally and PJ Dozier are in poor form, and Zach LeDay missed a couple of games due to injury. Aleksa Avramovic has been absent for a while, and he is also an essential part of Partizan's system. Despite such conditions, Partizan travels to Istanbul to face Fenerbahce. Since the arrival of Sarunas Jasikevicius, Fenerbahce has a 5-1 record in the EuroLeague. Nick Calathes is playing above expectations, and Georgios Papagiannis had an excellent first half against Maccabi Tel Aviv. Fenerbahce has a lot of options at all positions and after Real Madrid, arguably has the deepest roster in the EuroLeague. Fenerbahce played against Maccabi on neutral court in Lithuania, so basically they lost their last home game against Crvena Zvezda, meaning they will be extra motivated. Last season, Partizan's victory in Istanbul was a turning point in their season. It could be the same this time if they manage to triumph, but it won't be easy. Considering all the issues they are facing, it is more likely that Fenerbahce will control the game's pace and the score throughout the first three quarters. Partizan will probably have a chance to reduce the deficit to one or two possessions early in the fourth quarter, setting the stage for a dramatic finish. While it's not impossible, the momentum is on Fenerbahce's side, and it's realistic to expect them to win, although not by a double-digit margin.

Monaco – Baskonia: Turbulence in the Principality

Monaco lost both games in the EuroLeague last week. Following their defeat against Olympiacos, the club suspended their second-best player Elie Okobo due to inappropriate behavior. This clearly indicates that the locker room situation is not optimal, and the results are certainly not in line with expectations. Monaco made significant efforts during the summer to take a step forward, with most predictions placing them as the second-best team right behind Real Madrid. However, with a modest record of 10-9, and if things don't improve soon, it's questionable whether they will even make it to the EuroLeague playoffs. A positive note for Monaco is that they haven't lost three consecutive games in the EuroLeague this season. On three occasions, they suffered back-to-back defeats, responding each time with a road win. Now, facing the same situation, they will play in front of their home crowd for the first time against a team that also experiences significant fluctuations. Baskonia heavily relies on Chima Moneke and Markus Howard, and when they are not performing at the required level, Baskonia tends to lose even to weaker teams in the Liga Endesa. Earlier in the season, Monaco won on the road against Baskonia precisely in a situation when they had two consecutive losses, and it's realistic to expect them to do it again. The guests may pose a threat here and there, but Mike James has been too superior this season to allow another failure for his team. Expect a stellar performance from him and a home win by at least a two-possession margin.

Bayern – Real Madrid: A regular evening at the office for Los Blancos

Real Madrid maintains a dominant first position in the EuroLeague with 17 wins out of 19 games. They showed signs of vulnerability last week for the first time, but their win against Anadolu Efes after four overtimes can only boost their confidence and set them back on track. It's nearly impossible to imagine anyone surpassing them in the standings by the end of the regular season, meaning they might not always have big motivation. This could lead to occasional downturns, as seen in games against Asvel, Barcelona and Anadolu Efes. Now, they face a trip to Germany for a clash against a club led by Pablo Laso, one of the most successful coaches in Real Madrid's history. This game will undoubtedly be particularly motivating for Laso, as his departure from Los Blancos wasn't ideal. In their first encounter this season, Bayern had no chance in Madrid, and realistically, the guests will dictate the terms here as well. If this were a EuroLeague playoff match, and we could confidently say that the guests would play with maximum focus and concentration, it would be realistic to expect them to triumph by at least three possessions or even more. However, it all depends on how much energy they want to expend. Their best players spent over 45 minutes on the court against Anadolu Efes, and just two days later, they faced Baskonia in the Liga Endesa. Fatigue will be felt in Munich, and considering all factors, it's not impossible for Bayern to stay close until the end and perhaps even give themselves a chance for victory. The most realistic scenario is to see a game similar to the one Real Madrid played in Villeurbanne two weeks ago.

Panathinaikos – Anadolu Efes: It could be the final blow for Erdem Can

Anadolu Efes lost six consecutive games in the EuroLeague, and the fans are furious. They are calling for head coach Ergin Can to be fired, although realistically the major blame doesn't rest solely on him. The team has struggled with a significant number of injuries recently, making it challenging to overcome these obstacles. If they had defeated Real Madrid in the last round, it could have provided an incredible boost to their confidence and potentially turned their season around. Instead, they suffered a heartbreaking loss after four overtimes, raising questions about the psychological impact on the players. The former head coach of Anadolu Efes and current Panathinaikos' boss Ergin Ataman recently criticized Can's selection as head coach. Ataman advocated for his former assistant Yakup Sekizkok to be his successor, but the management had different ideas. Now, Ataman has the chance to potentially deliver the final blow to Can, as Panathinaikos is playing their best basketball since the season began and is a significant favorite in this clash, likely by six or seven points. In the last round, they defeated Valencia on the road, even without Kostas Sloukas, and Kendrick Nunn had his worst game of the season. Luca Vildoza stepped up, showcasing the depth of the Panathinaikos roster. Earlier in the season, Anadolu Efes shocked Panathinaikos although they were without eight injured players. However, everything since then has been challenging for the Turkish team. This will only serve as additional motivation for Panathinaikos to approach this game seriously and secure another win in the EuroLeague. Any other outcome at this point seems difficult to envision. Mathias Lessort will have a significant advantage in the paint, and Panathinaikos' backcourt players are defensively capable of slowing down Shane Larkin and Darius Thompson. In the intense atmosphere in Athens, the visitors may make the game interesting at some point, but the hosts are likely to celebrate without much drama in the end.

Asvel – Crvena Zvezda: The red and whites must capitalize on last week's success

Crvena Zvezda played their best basketball of the season last week, securing wins against Fenerbahce on the road and a dominant performance against Partizan in the Eternal Derby. This improved their record to 8-11, keeping them in the playoff race. The schedule is favorable for them in the coming month, and they must capitalize on it by winning against weaker opponents. Asvel is one such rival, and it would be discouraging for Crvena Zvezda to allow a defeat, especially considering the situation the French club is currently in. Asvel fired Gianmarco Pozzecco on Saturday, with owner Tony Parker strongly criticizing the Italian coach for his management style. The dismissal came just a day after Asvel secured their first home win in the EuroLeague this season. This coaching change will further disrupt the team dynamics. Pierric Poupet has been chosen as Pozzecco's successor, and this presents a significant challenge for him. Crvena Zvezda faces certain injury issues, but this is undeniably a "must-win" game for them. It might not be pretty or convincing, but they should find a way to overcome their opponent, even if it's by a narrow margin.

Milano – Alba Berlin: The ghosts of the past must be avoided

In the last five seasons, Milano has been considered one of the most serious contenders in the EuroLeague, while Alba Berlin has consistently been at the bottom of the table. However, the German club won four of the last five encounters against the Italian champions, sounding the alarm ahead of this game. For some reason, Alba Berlin always performs well against Milano. Nevertheless, this is a game Milano absolutely cannot afford to lose. They currently stand at 8-11 and are already far from the positions they want to be on. It's true that they have many injuries, and their two best players (Nikola Mirotic and Shavon Shields) are sidelined. However, even without them, they have won two of the last three games against Baskonia and Bayern. In both matches, Ettore Messina's team played exceptionally well on defense, and that will be the goal this time as well. They certainly have the defensive quality to limit Alba Berlin to less than 75 points, and if that happens, they will secure their ninth victory in the EuroLeague. Milano believes that the return of Shields and Mirotic later this month will bring the quality that will push them towards the top of the table. Their ambitions are not just to reach the playoffs but also to go all the way. When everyone is healthy, they may be in the top 4 in the EuroLeague in terms of individual talent. If they intend to have any chance of fulfilling their ambitions by the end of the season, Alba Berlin must not be an obstacle. The ghosts of the past will surely appear at the "Mediolanum Forum" at some point, but Milano must overcome that and secure a solid win in a game on a small number of possessions.

Valencia – Zalgiris: Three-point shots are the only chance for the visitors

Because under the basket, Valencia will have a huge advantage. There is no way for Zalgiris to contain Brandon Davies and Semi Ojeleye in one-on-one situations. They will have to constantly double-team them and hope that the hosts miss a large number of three-pointers. That's the only way the club from Kaunas can achieve a positive result in this game. Zalgiris changed their head coach last week but despite that, they lost to Asvel, the worst team in the competition. Simply put, the issue is that they have an exceptionally weak roster for this level of basketball. The only positive aspect of Zalgiris' game is their three-point shooting. They shoot from beyond the arc at a 41% success rate, making them the best shooting team in the EuroLeague. However, even when they shoot at those percentages, as against Asvel, it's not enough because they lack enough strength in the paint to confront a physically dominant opponents. Valencia will adopt that strategy and consistently focus on low-post play. This way, they should gain an advantage and secure a valuable win in the playoff race. Expect both teams to emphasize a slow pace and a low number of possessions, leading to a low-scoring game, unless both teams shoot exceptionally well.

Barcelona – Olympiacos: Derby of the Round

This will be a clash between two teams that have played in the EuroLeague Final Four in the last two seasons and have ambitions to compete for the trophy again. Unlike previous years, both teams are facing certain problems. Barcelona went through its biggest crisis in the last five years in December, losing games to very weak Spanish teams and being outplayed by teams like Alba Berlin and Milano in the EuroLeague. However, they regrouped and secured a huge win against Real Madrid in El Clasico. They hope that this is the necessary turning point, as they followed up with a win against Baskonia a few days later. Olympiacos has four consecutive wins, but their performances are not outstanding. They had an easy schedule, defeating Asvel and Alba Berlin, two of the weakest teams in the EuroLeague. They then beat Milano and Monaco at home, but both games were won by hitting key three-pointers in the final moments of the fourth quarter. While Olympiacos can play at a high defensive level, they struggle offensively, and it doesn't seem like that will change soon. Predicting the outcome of this game is challenging. Barcelona has more individual talent this season than Olympiacos. Jan Vesely played exceptional basketball last week, and if he repeats that level, Barcelona will have an advantage inside, even though the guests have centers like Moustapha Fall and Nikola Milutinov. Barcelona has more proficient shooters, but judging by their performance in December, it's impossible to guarantee that the team that defeated Real Madrid last week will show up on the court. If they approach the game with that mindset, then this is a game they should win without much trouble. When that's not the case, they are capable of losing to much weaker teams than Olympiacos. So everything depends on Barcelona approach.

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Virtus: A redemption game for the Israelis

Maccabi Tel Aviv was humiliated last week in Lithuania, where they lost to Fenerbahce 109:74 on neutral court. This marked the third time this season in the EuroLeague that they allowed their opponent to score a three-digit number of points. Maccabi has the potential to play solid defense, as evidenced by limiting Zalgiris to only 70 points in Kaunas and having three defensively strong quarters against Monaco. However, they struggle to maintain defensive consistency. They rely heavily on their offense and the impressive performances of Lorenzo Brown and Wade Baldwin. Without them, their current 11-8 record would likely be much weaker. Due to the situation in Israel, Maccabi continues to play their home EuroLeague matches in Belgrade without fans in attendance. This will be the case against Virtus as well. In terms of individual talent, Maccabi is definitely superior, but club from Bologna has exceeded all expectations this season. Not many anticipated Virtus achieving 14 victories in the entire EuroLeague season. While their starting lineup averages 33.8 years of age, they haven't experienced a significant drop in form yet, playing exceptionally smart basketball on both ends of the court. The key to this game lies solely in Maccabi's defense. If they show up on that side of the court, especially after their debacle against Fenerbahce, this is a game where they can take control and ultimately secure a win. Virtus will undoubtedly be competitive throughout the match, but fatigue may come into play at some point in the second half, and Maccabi's younger and fresher roster should be able to capitalize on that.