Euroleague - Round 22
18-19 January 2024
Anadolu Efes – Barcelona: It's time to climb
Anadolu Efes will have to climb high to achieve its goals. They aimed to be in the conversation for the EuroLeague Final Four, but a series of unfortunate circumstances prevented them. Throughout November and December, they had many injured players, but now almost all are healthy. Only Will Clyburn is still sidelined, but head coach Erdem Can finally has at least two options at each position. In this condition, Anadolu Efes demolished Virtus last week, and they recently played an exceptionally good game in Spain against Real Madrid, which they unfortunately lost.
Anadolu Efes can still reach the 10th position and the play-in, which would give them a chance to qualify for the playoffs. The road is long, but they will reach the final destination only if they string together a series of wins. The schedule is solid, and they must win at home regardless of the opponent. Barcelona has four consecutive wins in the EuroLeague, but all four times, they played at home. Defensively, they are not as powerful as they were in October, and they mainly rely on Jan Vesely. Anadolu Efes has the players to respond in the paint, while Barcelona will have a tough task slowing down Shane Larkin in backcourt.
It's hard to imagine that Anadolu Efes will allow themselves to stumble here. They face a serious opponent, and it's not realistic to dominate as they did against Virtus. However, they can certainly outplay Barcelona with their quality, and with the help of 15,000 fans, everything will be easier. It is expected that the hosts will control the rhythm and the score, and in the end, they will secure triumph.
Crvena Zvezda – Baskonia: Defense is the key
Both teams possess significant offensive and shooting potential, and when they are in rhythm, they are difficult to stop. On the defensive end, the team that shows more dedication and desire will be closer to triumph. Playing in Belgrade makes it clear that Crvena Zvezda is considered the favorite. However, their problem is that they have lost Nemanja Nedovic and Nikola Topic due to injury, two crucial players in the backcourt. Milos Teodosic will bear complete responsibility, and much will depend on his performance. If he plays at his highest level, it will be difficult for Baskonia to disrupt the host's offense.
Baskonia's advantage lies in the fact that Dusko Ivanovic, who built this Crvena Zvezda team, is now with them. He was dismissed in October and immediately took over the club from Vitoria. So, if anyone knows how to create tactics against the red and whites, it's the Montenegrin expert. Baskonia heavily relies on their three-point shooting in the offense, with Markus Howard and Chima Moneke leading the way. Tadas Sedekerskis and Vanja Marinkovic also play crucial roles, but without a strong performance from Howard and Moneke, it's hard for this team to triumph at road against anyone. In the first game in Vitoria, Luka Mitrovic was unstoppable, and this is a matchup that favors Crvena Zvezda. If he outplays Moneke, and Branko Lazic finds a way to at least slow down Howard, the hosts will have an advantage.
However, Baskonia is considered perhaps the most unpredictable team in the EuroLeague. When Howard and Moneke are on target, they can defeat some of the best European teams like Olympiacos, Panathinaikos and Barcelona. When that's not the case, they easily lose to a Milano who is playing without six players. Crvena Zvezda has shown that they can make things difficult for Howard and Moneke, making it more realistic for the hosts to find a path to victory. It won't be a one-way game for the entire 40 minutes, but when it matters most, the hosts should be more agile and ultimately secure a victory by at least a two-possession margin.
Alba Berlin – Bayern: Battle for Germany
Two EuroLeague clubs from Germany will face each other in this round. Alba Berlin comes into the game after the most convincing win of the season, having outplayed Asvel on the road by 88:63. On the other hand, Bayern is on a streak of four consecutive defeats, although they came very close to causing an upset against Fenerbahce in Istanbul. This is a game that Bayern must win if they want to keep any chance of making it to the play-in this season.
The victory against Asvel shouldn't carry too much weight since Alba Berlin, along with that team, is the weakest in the EuroLeague. Bayern is at a much higher level and has much greater ambitions. Serge Ibaka has the quality to completely dominate here, and if the hosts impose their rhythm with a lot of running and three-point shots, the guests can still capitalize through Andreas Obst, Sylvain Francisco and Carsen Edwards. However, regardless of how the game unfolds, it favors Bayern. It will all come down to their defensive intensity, and if it's on point, Pablo Laso's team is a significant favorite. After four consecutive defeats, anything other than a reaction from Bayern would be a surprise. German derbies in the EuroLeague often offer drama, and it's not unthinkable that Alba Berlin stays close until the very end, but Bayern's triumph should not be questioned.
Olympiacos – Maccabi Tel Aviv: It will all come down to the approach
This is a clash between two teams with completely different basketball styles. Maccabi Tel Aviv plays at a very fast pace with a lot of intensity, relying on quick solutions in offense. Wade Baldwin and Lorenzo Brown form one of the most effective backcourts in the EuroLeague, and when James Webb, Bonzie Colson, Tamir Blatt and John DiBartolomeo hit from the outside, there is no opponent that Maccabi cannot overcome. Their problem lies in their approach and defense. Against Partizan, they had a fantastic 15 minutes and then completely fell apart. This is not the first time it has happened this season, and a similar atmosphere awaits them in Piraeus.
Olympiacos doesn't have offensive potential close to what they had last season, relying on good results through defense. This can sometimes be a problem because, aside from Isaiah Canaan and Alec Peters, others mostly struggle from beyond the arc. Regardless of how good a defense they play, it's nearly impossible to win in the EuroLeague if you can't score more than 70 points at home. That was the case against Valencia for Georgios Bartzokas' team. Maccabi has the physical strength to match Olympiacos, but their approach must be at its maximum. It's undeniable that the visitors have significantly greater offensive potential. If they find their rhythm, they can secure a win. However, finding rhythm on the court in Piraeus against Olympiacos' defense is not an easy task. This is a game that could go in any direction. If Maccabi impresses defensively, they can cause an upset. If they collapse as they did against Partizan, they could lose by a double-digit margin. But the impression is that the visitors will have more say in the outcome.
Virtus – Asvel: There won't be much drama
Virtus suffered two defeats in the EuroLeague last week, but it was bound to happen at some point. For the oldest team in this competition, a dip in performance isn't surprising, especially during a double round. In the upcoming period, it's crucial for them to have enough time for regeneration and preparation, and that seems to be the case ahead of this game. They will host Asvel, the weakest team in the EuroLeague, and there shouldn't be any dramatics. Virtus boasts a 9-1 record in Bologna, with their only loss coming against Zalgiris in the first round.
Asvel underwent another coaching change last week, and the situation is not favorable. When you lose at home by 25 points to Alba Berlin, all red flags must be raised. Virtus is a superior team in all basketball aspects, and this is a game where the difference will constantly grow in their favor. In the end, the most realistic outcome is a home win by a margin of 10 to 20 points. Toko Shengelia will not play for Virtus due to injury, but that won't change much. Simply, Asvel is not close to Virtus level.
Zalgiris – Fenerbahce: A great desire sometimes makes up for a lack of quality
That could indeed be the case in this game. Many in Zalgiris will be highly motivated, especially their head coach Andrea Trinchieri. He was on the verge of being promoted to Fenerbahce a month ago, but at the last moment, the Istanbul club changed its mind and hired Sarunas Jasikevicius. Trinchieri accepted Zalgiris' offer a few weeks later, which is undoubtedly more modest than the one he had from the Turkish giant, and he will surely want to prove himself. Zalgiris' top player, Keenan Evans, has often been on Fenerbahce's radar, although no agreement was reached. There is no doubt that he will use this as an audition, as interest could be revived, and with a good performance he might impress potential future employers.
In the previous season and generally over the years, Zalgiris has always had a strong home court advantage in Kaunas. This is not the case this season. They have a disastrous 3-6 record at home, with the only wins coming against weaker opponents such as Crvena Zvezda, Bayern and Alba Berlin. Perhaps it's time for a significant win, and that would certainly be a triumph against Fenerbahce. When these two teams played in Istanbul, Zalgiris was the better team for 30 minutes, but then the opponent made some tough shots, and the tide turned. The three-point shot will be a crucial factor here. It is the best aspect of Zalgiris' game, and to defeat Fenerbahce, they must be impressive from beyond the 6.75m line. There is no doubt that the quality is on the side of the visitors, but they are far from flawless. They lost at home to Crvena Zvezda, and they struggled in the first half against Partizan. If Fenerbahce is at its recognizable level, it is much more likely that they will triumph by at least two or three possessions. But the better team does not always win and that could be a case here.
Monaco – Real Madrid: A great opportunity for the hosts
This game could potentially change everything in favor of Monaco or lead to the dismissal of head coach Sasa Obradovic. During the summer, Monaco was ranked second in all power rankings, just behind Real Madrid. While the reigning EuroLeague champion has lived up to expectations, the club from the Principality has not. They currently sit in eighth place with an 11-10 record, and this is a great opportunity for them. Real Madrid will play without their best player, Walter Tavares, and Sergio Llull will also be absent. Dzanan Musa and Vincent Poirier did not play in the Liga Endesa over the weekend due to injuries, and Real Madrid lost to Murcia.
However, Real Madrid's problems are not something that should worry Monaco. They must capitalize on this to get back on track and show that they are contenders for the title. If they can't defeat a weakened Real Madrid on their home court, then this season's project is a failure, and they would have little chance in a potential showdown at the Final Four if Real Madrid is healthy. Expect highly motivated hosts led by Mike James. In the absence of Tavares, this is one of the rare situations where Real Madrid will be inferior in the paint. Donatas Motiejunas could have an outstanding night, and John Brown could handle Mario Hezonja effectively.
Panathinaikos – Partizan: Everything points in one direction
And that would be an easy victory for Panathinaikos. After Real Madrid, the "Greens" are in the best form in the EuroLeague. Not only have they won seven of their last eight games, but they look dominant on the court. Mathias Lessort is the best center in the competition, Dinos Mitoglou is having the best season of his career, and hardly any power forward can defend against his three-point shooting. Panathinaikos' issue during October and November was offensive creation, but since the arrival of Kendrick Nunn, Kostas Sloukas and Jerian Grant have been significantly relieved. With Nunn on the team, both have improved their shooting percentages, and everything has come together perfectly for head coach Ergin Ataman. In this state, they are undoubtedly one of the main contenders for the title.
On the other hand, Partizan has experienced too many ups and downs, not only between games but also during them. No team has made more comebacks than the black and whites in the EuroLeague this season, showing that the quality is there, but it raises questions for head coach Zeljko Obradovic why his team only starts playing when they are in a double-digit deficit. All those comebacks have happened in the "Stark Arena" at home, but when you trailing by double digits on the road, a comeback is generally unlikely. To defeat a team like Panathinaikos, it is necessary to play a perfect 40 minutes. It seems that Partizan has not reached that level yet, even though a victory against Maccabi could provide a significant boost.
Coach Obradovic is the most decorated coach in the history of European basketball, and his teams should never be counted out in advance. Under his command in the previous two years, Lessort has become the best EuroLeague center. If someone knows how to limit his impact, it's Obradovic. Sloukas played his best basketball when Obradovic coached him at Fenerbahce. All this intel will be essential for the guests in preparing for the game, but it may not be enough to defeat Panathinaikos. Kevin Punter and James Nunnally must shoot impressively from distance, and Bruno Caboclo and Alen Smailagic must perform at their best in the paint. All of this guarantees only a dramatic finish. Without such performances, Panathinaikos will likely win by at least two od three possessions, which is the most realistic scenario.
Valencia – Milano: Defenses will dominate
Valencia and Milano are two teams that have excelled in the EuroLeague this season through their defense. Valencia possesses exceptional defensive potential across all positions, allowing an average of 107.9 points per 100 possessions. Only Real Madrid has a better defensive rating than them. Milano is considered the fourth-best defense with a defensive rating of 110.6, indicating the kind of game we should expect at the "Fonteta." In a slow-paced game, it would be surprising if these two teams combined for more than 155 points. Anything else is unpredictable.
There is a possibility that Shavon Shields could return for Milano, which would be a significant boost. Shabazz Napier has not brought what was expected for the visitors, and Ettore Messina's team has struggled offensively. Nicolo Melli and Kyle Hines can certainly match up against Semi Ojeleye and Brandon Davies in the paint. If Milano wins the battle inside, they will have a great chance. Ultimately, the team that scores more easy points on the basket will almost certainly triumph. Milano dominated Valencia earlier in the season, and it's clear that they know how to play against them, as demonstrated last season when they won both clashes. In a low-scoring game, Milano can stay close until the end, and it's likely that the winner will be decided in the final minute.