Euroleague - Round 23

25-26 January 2024

Fenerbahce – Virtus: The battle for home court advantage

Fenerbahce and Virtus want to finish the EuroLeague regular season within the top 4 to have home-court advantage in the playoffs, and this game could play a crucial role for both teams. Fenerbahce was humiliated in Kaunas last week, with head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius stating that the loss to Zalgiris was one of the most embarrassing in his career. They allowed their opponent to score 98 points, highlighting once again how weak Fenerbahce's defense is when Nigel Hayes-Davis is absent. He will miss this game as well, and there's uncertainty about the availability of their second-best defender, Dyshawn Pierre. Virtus is also facing problems as their star player Toko Shengelia has been sidelined for seven days. There's a high probability that he will travel with the team to Istanbul, but this information may not be available until the day before the game, and it could be crucial for the outcome. Virtus without Shengelia is simply not the same team. They struggled against the bottom-placed Asvel last week without their best player. In Istanbul, they might not stand a chance. Even without Hayes-Davis, Fenerbahce would exploit Virtus's weaknesses. However, if Shengelia is able to play for the visitors, things could change because the hosts would have a hard time stopping him in the low post, and in that case, Virtus could stay close until the very end.

Alba Berlin – Crvena Zvezda: The visitors must find a way

Last week, Crvena Zvezda suffered a defeat at home against Baskonia, diminishing their chances of reaching the EuroLeague play-in. Milos Teodosic unexpectedly did not play due to a hamstring injury, but his absence wasn't the main reason for the loss. The defense of the red and whites was notably poor, and that is something they will have to improve upon in Germany. Crvena Zvezda had high aspirations for this season, but it seems they might miss out on the EuroLeague playoffs once again. Javonte Smart was signed last week, providing head coach Ioannis Sfairopoulos with an additional option in the backcourt. For Alba Berlin, the result is secondary. They have focused on player development this season and are undergoing a rebuilding phase. Last week, they suffered an easy defeat against Bayern, and a similar scenario is realistic this time. This is a "must-win" game for Crvena Zvezda, while for Alba, it's another day in the office. Undoubtedly, the hosts will try to impose their fast-paced, three-point shooting style. Crvena Zvezda's loss to Asvel revealed their lack of stability, but if they miss this chance, they would undoubtedly need to reflect on their situation. Quality is on their side, and it would be a surprise if they allow another shocking defeat at road.

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Panathinaikos: Difficult situation for the hosts

According to sources, Maccabi Tel Aviv will once again be without their best player Lorenzo Brown this week. He missed the game against Olympiacos due to a back injury, and the team suffered a big loss in Greece. This comes as no surprise, as the entire offense of the team revolves around Brown. He is a true leader, and a real alternative is nonexistent. Considering that Maccabi plays their games on neutral court in Belgrade and without the presence of spectators, it's clear that they won't have the home-court advantage here. Panathinaikos is currently in perhaps the best form in the entire EuroLeague. They play exceptionally well on both ends of the court, aiming to finish in the top 4 to have home-court advantage in the quarterfinals. Based on everything seen in the past three weeks, it would be foolish to expect anything other than a win for the visitors.  Mathias Lessort and Dinos Mitoglou certainly have an advantage in the frontcourt, while Jerian Grant and Kendrick Nunn will effectively slow down Wade Baldwin. The only cause for concern might be Panathinaikos' loss in Istanbul to Anadolu Efes almost two months ago. At that time, the Istanbul club played without eight players and still defeated Panathinaikos. The "Greens" should have learned their lesson and not underestimate Maccabi without Brown, but that experience certainly remains in memory. If the visitors replicate their performances from the previous six or seven games, they are absolute favorites and should triumph in a high-paced game with plenty of points.

Bayern – Asvel: Big difference in everything

It would be a massive surprise if Asvel manages to achieve anything here. Last week, Bayern easily defeated Alba Berlin on the road, and now they will face a team of a similar level. Bayern still dreams of making it to the EuroLeague play-in, and their schedule favors them in the coming weeks. They need to embark on a winning streak, and a victory against Asvel should never be in doubt at any point. Simply put, they have the advantage at every position and in every aspect of the game. Since the recent coaching change, Asvel has shown more confidence in Youssoupha Fall, who has been able to create an advantage with his height under the basket. However, that strategy is unlikely to succeed against Serge Ibaka, who is one of the best defenders in the entire competition. Andreas Obst and Carsen Edwards are much better shooters than any Asvel has at their disposal, and Vladimir Lucic brings many elements that the visitors lack at the forward position. Realistically, the hosts should establish an early lead that will gradually grow, reaching a double-digit difference by the middle of the third quarter. In the end, there will be no drama, and Bayern will secure an easy win.

Real Madrid – Olympiacos: Things get complicated for the leader

Real Madrid has been dominating European basketball since the beginning of the season, but things are now getting complicated. Walter Tavares got injured and will not play until mid-February, and without him, they suffered a devastating 98:74 loss to Monaco last week. This is not as surprising because without Tavares, Real Madrid is not the same team. No player in the last decade has made as much of a difference for a team as the center from Cape Verde for Real Madrid. His presence alone changes the opponent's offense because it's nearly impossible to attack the paint when he's on the court. Real Madrid's offense also weakens without him, as Tavares' excellent blocks creates space for shooters, and he himself is always an option for easy points under the basket. Without him, the only option is Vincent Poirier, and he cannot play all 40 minutes. This is something that Olympiacos can exploit. Although they are missing Moustapha Fall, their alternative is still better. Nikola Milutinov has had more playing time and has maximized his opportunities. He had 20 points and 20 rebounds against Maccabi Tel Aviv and will likely have an advantage over Poirier. If Olympiacos plays patiently on offense and seeks good positions, they can hope for something. Defensively, they can certainly respond to the task and create certain problems for the hosts, but for an upset in Madrid, it is necessary for players like Thomas Walkup and Nigel Williams-Goss to make open three-pointers. If Tavares were present, it would be realistic to expect Real Madrid's dominance, as seen throughout the season. Without him, the door is open for the guests to stay close until the very end and perhaps hope for a significant triumph. It will require a bit of luck, but the opportunity is there.

Anadolu Efes – Monaco: Slowing down must not be an option

Anadolu Efes finally started to play up to expectations. In the previous two rounds, they demolished Virtus and Barcelona, two of the top 3 teams in the EuroLeague. Now, they will again play at home against an excellent opponent. At the beginning of the season, Anadolu Efes had an issue with a short rotation. Then, eight players got injured, leading to a series of losses. During that period, Mike Daum and Daniel Oturu were signed, and now, with all the injured players back, including Will Clyburn, head coach Erdem Can has at least two good options at every position. When considering that Shane Larkin is playing in his best form, and Darius Thompson is slowly reaching the desired level, it's clear why Anadolu Efes is dominant lately. To reach the EuroLeague play-in, there must be no slowdown. Where they left off against Barcelona, Anadolu Efes must continue against Monaco. The task is not easy because Mike James is in exceptional form, and now Elie Okobo and Jordan Loyd are also in the mix. It seems that the visitors have the best health situation since the start of the season, and they will come to Istanbul for the win. However, their performances on the road have been poor in this campaign. They are 5-7 away from their home court, and it is more realistic for the number of losses to be eight after this round. Nevertheless, caution is needed because when the opponent has James on their roster, they can always hope for a victory.

Baskonia – Valencia: There are no guarantees in these kinds of games

Baskonia is rightfully the favorite in this game, and if we believe everything we see from week to week, then this is a match they should win by at least two possessions. However, there are simply no guarantees in their games. After the win against Crvena Zvezda, Chima Moneke stated that Baskonia doesn't know how to win a match convincingly, and for some reason, they always end up with dramatic finishes. When that's the case, any outcome is possible. Markus Howard had 32 points and a 7/10 from downtown last week, and when that happens, Baskonia can defeat any opponent in this competition. Howard will surely take a large number of tough three-pointers again, and the outcome of his attempts will significantly influence final result of the game. Valencia also secured an important win last week, and in this duel, they will try to exploit the advantage in the paint. Brandon Davies is a much more dominant player than Maik Kotsar, and Semi Ojeleye can also slow down Moneke. With players like Chris Jones, Jared Harper and Kassius Robertson, it's clear that Valencia can compete in three-point shooting as well against players like Howard, Vanja Marinkovic and Codi Miller-McIntyre. Since both teams play in Liga Endesa, there are no unknowns between them. This will be their third encounter this season, and Baskonia won the previous two. Winning against a similar quality opponent three times in a row in the same season is not easy, even though it is expected from Dusko Ivanovic's team. Realistically, that may be the case, but his team is one of the most unpredictable in the EuroLeague.

Milano – Barcelona: It can go in all directions

Milano missed a great opportunity in Valencia in the last round. They led for the majority of the game and then fell apart in the second part of the fourth quarter. Shavon Shields returned after an injury and that is excellent news for head coach Ettore Messina. Recently signed Rodney McGruder made his debut, and when Nikola Mirotic, Maodo Lo and Billy Baron return to the team, it will be one of the most powerful rosters in the EuroLeague in terms of individual talent. The question is how far they will be from the playoff zone when they are fully complete. All three mentioned players are expected to return by mid-February, and it is of immense importance for Milano to win some games until then. Barcelona is currently in a better situation than Milano, although they have their own problems as well. Last week, they suffered another tough away loss. They have shown two completely different faces this season and play with much more confidence at home. Nicolas Laprovittola missed the last three games in this competition, but he is expected to be in the team for the trip to Italy. With him, they definitely have an extra dimension in the offense. However, with their loss to Alba Berlin and some pathetic performances on the road, Barcelona has taught us that there are no guarantees with them. If they play up to their quality, they are definitely favorites. On the other hand, Milano can play defensively at the highest level, and when that happens, they can create surprises. That's why this game is extremely difficult to predict. Considering everything that has happened in the last two months, Barcelona has fallen apart on road games more times than they shown their true face. And that could easily happen again in this clash.

Partizan – Zalgiris: Sensation is not an option

Partizan cannot afford a loss here. They were out of contention against Panathinaikos in the last round, but that was somewhat expected as captain Kevin Punter missed the game due to the flu. With him in the team, things are different, and it will be the same this time. Partizan is already in a tougher position than they had hoped for. The ambition is to compete for a spot in the Final Four, but to reach there, they will have to climb high in the next four months. But when you have Zeljko Obradovic as the head coach, the ambitions are always as high as possible. Partizan showed last season what they are capable of, and as the season progresses, their form always improves. Zalgiris players have certainly responded to the change in the coach. Andrea Trinchieri brought new energy, and wins against Valencia and Fenerbahce are proof of that. Considering their position on the table, Zalgiris can play with relaxation because it's not realistic for them to reach the playoffs, nor does anyone expect that at this point. Keenan Evans is playing at a very high level, and he will again have to be masterful for Zalgiris to have a chance in Belgrade. However, that is not realistic to happen. Partizan plays with a special energy in front of their fans, and this is an opportunity to set a solid foundation for the crucial double road trip to Monaco and Bologna next week. This is a game that the hosts will control from start to finish and most likely celebrate with at least three possessions in the end.