Euroleague - Round 24
30-31 January 2024
Bayern – Baskonia: One player can change everything
30/01/24
In this case, it's Serge Ibaka. With him and without him, Bayern looks like two completely different teams. Ibaka unexpectedly missed the game against Asvel in the last round, and the Bavarians played their worst game of the season. They lacked the physical strength to compete with Asvel's powerful centers, and starting power forward Devin Booker also got injured in the first half. Ibaka has been one of the best centers in the EuroLeague this season. Against almost any team, he can establish dominance in the paint, opening up more space for Bayern's shooters like Sylvain Francisco, Carsen Edwards and Andreas Obst. Ibaka has a chronic knee injury, and coach Pablo Laso often rests him. Bayern's assumption was probably that they could outplay Asvel even without him, which was not the case. If Ibaka is ready to play, Bayern is the favorite against Baskonia. Maik Kotsar cannot effectively guard him, and the hosts would surely score a large number of easy points, either directly through Ibaka on the rim or through open shots due to the double teams that would follow in the low post. If Ibaka doesn't play, things change completely. Although Baskonia doesn't have physically dominant frontcourt players like Asvel, Chima Moneke and Markus Howard have more than enough offensive weapons to destroy virtually any team in the EuroLeague. The entire game of Baskonia revolves around Howard. Against Valencia, he shot 1/9 from three-point range, which was the main reason for their tough loss. Seven days before that, he had 7/10 from downtown, and Baskonia surprised Crvena Zvezda on the road. It's certain that Howard will take his fair share of shots in this game, and if he's not accurate, his team could suffer another double-digit loss. But even if he hits his shots, the most realistic scenario is a Bayern triumph by at least two possessions. Of course, assuming Ibaka will be on the court.
Crvena Zvezda – Valencia: Last chance for the hosts
30/01/24
Crvena Zvezda expected to stay in the EuroLeague play-in race with wins against Baskonia and Alba Berlin. However, their best player Milos Teodosic got injured, and the red and whites suffered defeats in both games. Teodosic wanted to play in Germany, but it wasn't possible. Predictions suggest that he will be on the court against Valencia, and if that happens, the hosts chances are significantly higher. Teodosic is by far the most crucial player in Crvena Zvezda's offense. Everything depends on his playmaking, and without it, problems arise. Without him, numerous mistakes were made against Alba, opening up transition opportunities and easy points for the opponent. There's no alternative as young Nikola Topic is also injured, and it didn't help that Nemanja Nedovic played in Berlin on his own responsibility despite needing another week off due to injury. On the other hand, Valencia played their best game of the season in Vitoria, securing an exceptionally valuable victory against Baskonia. However, this game will be much tougher if Teodosic is on the court. After the loss to Alba, head coach Ioannis Sfairopoulos reportedly yelling on his players in the locker room, captured by a journalist and subsequently went viral. The Greek expert was clearly dissatisfied with the performance, and a reaction is now expected. With Luka Mitrovic and Joel Bolomboy, the hosts can match up against Brandon Davies and Semi Ojeleye in the paint. Rokas Giedraitis is one of the few consistently performing players lately. If Teodosic plays, expect a Crvena Zvezda triumph with at least a two-possession difference. The offense will be faster, more shooting opportunities will open up, and unlike Baskonia and Alba, Valencia is not a team that punishes opponents with fast breaks. This style of play should favor the red and whites.
Asvel – Fenerbahce: The lesson should have been learned
30/01/24
Two weeks ago, Fenerbahce suffered a debacle in Kaunas, where Zalgiris demolished them. Head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius highlighted it as the most shameful defeat in his career, and immediately after that, a reaction followed. His team performed exceptionally well in the Turkish Super League against Pinar Karsiyaka, and then they triumphed over Virtus in the EuroLeague. There's no doubt that Fenerbahce has one of the four most expensive and high-quality teams in the entire competition. It all comes down to the approach, and after the Kaunas incident, it's realistic to expect the players to enter every next game 100% focused because any lapse in concentration will be punished in this competition, even by a weaker teams like Asvel. In the last round, Asvel achieved their biggest win of the season, but circumstances favored them against Bayern. The hosts were without Serge Ibaka, and Devin Booker got injured in the first half. Without these two key players, Bayern had only veteran Elias Harris and young Danko Brankovic at the four and five positions, making it challenging even against EuroCup teams. Asvel consistently played through the low post, and Youssoupha Fall, standing at 2.21m, dominated the paint. On the defensive end, the same player locked down the rim and Bayern simply lacked the height to compete. Such a strategy won't work against Fenerbahce. Despite Asvel being a better team and playing with more energy since the coaching change, winning here would be a major surprise. Realistically, the guests are expected to control the game from start to finish and secure a win without any drama in the closing moments.
Olympiacos – Alba Berlin: Defense is the key
30/01/24
If Nikola Milutinov and Moustapha Fall were healthy, Olympiacos would likely secure a win here by at least 15 points. In the current situation, things can potentially get out of control, although it shouldn't be the case. In the absence of their two main centers, the red and whites signed Moses Wright, who is expected to debut in this match. In the previous few games, Filip Petrusev has spent a significant amount of time at the center position, but he also reported an injury over the weekend. Due to all these issues, Olympiacos' defense on the perimeter will have to stand out and push the team across the finish line. Alba Berlin has the weakest offense in the EuroLeague. They have the worst offensive rating, score the fewest points on average, and lack any creation in their 5-on-5 play. Their only chance is to grab a large number of offensive rebounds and attack early in transition. They managed to do this against Crvena Zvezda, but it's unlikely that Olympiacos will allow the same. The hosts will try to impose their tempo and engage in long possessions, relying on excellent defense to limit the opponent to under 75 points. They will likely succeed in that aspect, and the margin of their win will depend on their shooting percentages. Since they will be prevented from scoring easy points at the rim, it won't be a surprise if Alba ends up losing by a single-digit in the end.
Real Madrid – Maccabi Tel Aviv: Everything is not always as it should be, 30/01/24
Based on everything seen in the last two years, this is a game that Real Madrid should win by a double-digit margin. They undeniably play the best basketball in Europe and easily defeated Olympiacos even without their best player, Walter Tavares. Tavares will be absent until mid-February, posing a challenge for the reigning EuroLeague champions. Tavares, with his 2.21m, is a game-changer on the court. In offense, he creates better shooting positions for teammates with solid screens, and when he receives the ball in the low post, opponents must double-team him, leading to easy shots for Real Madrid. On the defensive end, Tavares has been named the best defender in the competition three times in the last four seasons. However, even without him, Real Madrid's roster is exceptionally powerful, but they can be vulnerable. Maccabi Tel Aviv has the offensive weapons to respond to the hosts and play a quality game. Lorenzo Brown and Wade Baldwin form one of the best backcourt tandems in the EuroLeague. Josh Nebo and Jasiel Rivero have the physical strength to dominate in the paint, and on paper, the visitors can hope for something. But Maccabi's issue lies in their defensive approach. They have played perfect defense in very few games this season despite possessing quality. Another problem is that when they fall behind by a double-digit margin, it often turns into a blowout. They lost to Fenerbahce by 109:74, were easily defeated by Olympiacos 89:72, and were humiliated by Monaco with a score of 107:79. Even Real Madrid won the first game of the season against them with a score of 99:70. This suggests that once the opponent establishes a double-digit lead, it more often becomes a blowout, as Maccabi rarely manages to come back. This means that the outcome of this game will depend crucially on the first half and Maccabi's defense. If they stay within one or two possessions or even lead, they can hope for a sensational win. Otherwise, it will likely be another tough road loss. Everything learned about both teams so far indicates that this might be the case, but in the EuroLeague, things don't always go as expected. Anadolu Efes and Valencia were just a few seconds away from defeating Real Madrid on the road, and Maccabi, for example, is not a weaker team than them at all.
Monaco – Partizan: The tradition could be broken 31/01/24 CET 18:00
In the past two seasons, Partizan won all three EuroLeague games against Monaco, but that tradition could be broken. Monaco is currently playing their best basketball this season, and it's not surprising. They had problems in the backcourt from the beginning and struggled to complete their roster. Jordan Loyd missed numerous games due to different injuries, Elie Okobo was suspended, and Kemba Walker fell short of expectations. Now, with head coach Sasa Obradovic finally having all the key players available, Monaco is starting to resemble the version everyone wanted to see. They demolished Real Madrid at home and secured a crucial victory against Anadolu Efes in the last round. Largest portion of the credit for Monaco's current position goes to Mike James. He is having an MVP-caliber season and is likely the top candidate for that award. Despite all the obstacles the team faced, he carried them on his back with his spectacular performances. But now, with Okobo and Loyd back, Monaco can win even when James is not having his best game. Partizan is undoubtedly not an easy opponent. They are elevating their game as the season progresses, as is typical for teams coached by Zeljko Obradovic, the greatest European coach in history. His team is on the rise and undoubtedly travels to the Principality with the ambition to triumph. Monaco has superior individual quality, but their style of play suits Partizan, and it's not a coincidence that Partizan won in all three previous encounters. Monaco is a team that plays at a slow pace and in a half-court setting. A grandmaster of this sport like Zeljko Obradovic, enjoys chess-like games where players are positioned like pieces, and he can always place them in the best positions. Partizan struggles against teams that like to run and resolve transition plays easily, which is not Monaco's style. Now it's up to the hosts to adapt and change their style because if they manage to speed up the game here, it will be a significant surprise if they lose to Partizan again. On the other hand, if that doesn't happen, it's not impossible to witness another thrilling game where the winner is decided in the final minutes.
Zalgiris – Anadolu Efes: It can go in all directions in various ways 31/01/24 CET 18:00
This is a game where all scenarios are imaginable. It's possible to witness a game decided in the final moments, and similarly, it's possible to imagine one of the teams triumphing by a double-digit margin. Individual quality favors Anadolu Efes. Players like Shane Larkin, Will Clyburn and Darius Thompson are among the visitors whom Zalgiris couldn't even imagine having in their ranks due to their salaries. Anadolu Efes will also have dominance in the frontcourt with Tyrique Jones and Daniel Oturu, giving them more influence in this matchup. Nevertheless, Zalgiris also has the means to respond. Since Andrea Trinchieri became the head coach, they have played with a renewed energy. A few weeks ago, they demolished Fenerbahce by 98:75 in Kaunas, and realistically, Anadolu Efes is not as quality a team as the other Istanbul-based squad. Zalgiris is the best three-point shooting team in the EuroLeague, and that was the recipe for their victory against Fenerbahce. If they shoot over 50% from downtown here, they are certainly capable for another significant triumph. The problem is that Anadolu Efes will be highly motivated and focused because a loss here would eliminate them from the play-in race, and their ambitions were much higher than that. Zalgiris is aware that they will not be part of the playoffs this season, and that motivational factor can be decisive in this game. Although Zalgiris is always motivated in front of their 15,000 fans, a win would mean much more to Anadolu Efes.
Panathinaikos – Milano: It's time for an upward trajectory 31/01/24 CET 18:15
During the summer, Milano assembled one of the most powerful rosters in the EuroLeague. They signed the most-wanted player Nikola Mirotic, and many considered them as one of the main contenders for the Final Four. However, just like last season, injuries started to happen. Their best player Shavon Shields was absent for almost two months, backup point guard Maodo Lo was also sidelined for an extended period, and Mirotic is expected to play for the first time in the EuroLeague since November. It hasn't been easy for head coach Ettore Messina to navigate through all of this, leading to ups and downs. Fortunately for them, everything is not lost. Recently, they have welcomed back Shabazz Napier and signed Rodney McGruder. Now, Milano has an even stronger team on paper than they did in the summer, entering each game with a realistic chance to triumph regardless of the venue. It's time for them to start climbing on the table. The unfortunate circumstance for Milano is that Mirotic's first return game will be played in one of the toughest places in Europe. Panathinaikos has been the hottest team in the EuroLeague over the past two months. However, such a streak must come to an end at some point. They suffered a loss in the last round against Maccabi Tel Aviv, indicating that they are not unbeatable. Kostas Sloukas is expected to miss this game due to injury, shortening their rotation. Panathinaikos boasts Mathias Lessort, the statistically best center in the EuroLeague for the past two years, who consistently puts up numbers close to double-double. Kendrick Nunn has been playing brilliantly on both ends of the floor, along with Jerian Grant and Dinos Mitoglou. It would be unserious to say that Panathinaikos is not the favorite on their home court after their recent performances. However, Milano can definitely make things difficult. Maybe not to secure a win, but to stay close until the very end. Additionally, these two teams can play defense at the highest level, and it would be a genuine surprise if this turns out to be a high-possession and high-scoring game. If they combine for over 160 points, it would indeed be surprising.
Barcelona – Virtus: Too many non-basketball factors have an impact 31/01/24 CET 19:30
Barcelona has been playing poorly lately, and it seems that head coach Roger Grimau has lost control. Despite the team's lack of principles on the court, Grimau has strong support from his former teammate and general manager Juan Carlos Navarro, who stated that Grimau will remain the coach regardless of the outcome in the next period. In terms of individual quality, Barcelona is likely the second-best team in the EuroLeague after Real Madrid. However, their performance as a collective unit on the court doesn't reflect their potential. While they secured notable victories early in the season, their recent form suggests a different story. They take difficult and poor shots on offense, lack defensive effort, and the leadership at Barcelona seems hesitant to admit that they made a mistake by parting ways with the former head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius. In contrast, Virtus Bologna is the opposite of Barcelona. On paper, they don't have a top-10 team in terms of individual quality, yet they share the same record (15-8) on the table as Barcelona. The club from Bologna is the biggest overachiever in the competition. The coaching change proved to be a jackpot for them. While Sergio Scariolo is a highly respected European coach, Luca Banchi provides more freedom, creating a winning combination for Virtus, considering they are the oldest and most experienced team in the EuroLeague. Players like Marco Belinelli, Bryant Dunston, Daniel Hackett and Tornike Shengelia bring a wealth of experience, and the team, which finished 14th last year, now has a realistic chance to end up in the top 4. Virtus' main challenge is that their best player, Shengelia, has been sidelined for two weeks due to injury. However, the prognosis indicates a high probability that he will travel to Barcelona. If that is the case, Virtus' chances improve significantly. Belinelli, who missed a game in Istanbul for the birth of his child, might also be available. If both players are on the court, it's realistic that the visitors will stay close until the end, possibly creating an upset. Virtus plays smart and high-quality basketball, but Barcelona holds the advantage in individual quality. Barcelona boasts an 11-1 home record in the EuroLeague, with their only loss coming against Milano. Individual quality is always a huge factor, so it all comes down to the approach of Barcelona's players, which is unpredictable lately.