Euroleague - Round 26
Anadolu Efes – Maccabi Tel Aviv: Turnovers will decide a lot
08/02/24 CET 17:30
After a disappointing performance against Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes parted ways with head coach Erdem Can. On his debut, longtime assistant Tomislav Mijatovic led the team to win against Milano. Judging by the atmosphere in the locker room, it seems that the players are pleased with the change, and they will face Maccabi Tel Aviv in a positive momentum. Anadolu Efes has an impressive stat of only 11 turnovers per game in the EuroLeague, and that could be a crucial factor this time. If they can minimize rookie mistakes in their offensive plays, they stand a better chance of winning.
Especially in this scenario where Maccabi is struggling. They lost five of their last seven EuroLeague games and are certainly not in the position they hoped to be. Wade Baldwin had a major clash with a referee in Vitoria, while Bonzie Colson got involved in a brawl with a Hapoel Holon fan in the domestic league. It's evident that there is tension within Maccabi, and this is not the ideal setup for their trip to Istanbul. Anadolu Efes holds the advantage in terms of quality and depth, and they see this game as their last chance to enter the play-in race. If they can control the ball in their offensive plays, it is realistic to expect them to come out on top in the end.
Baskonia – Asvel: All but one outcome will be a sensation
08/02/24 CET 19:30
This is a game that Baskonia must win at all costs. With a win against Maccabi Tel Aviv, they have once again found themselves in a situation where they control their destiny in the EuroLeague, and it would be an absolute tragedy if they spoil it with a loss to the weaker Asvel. Tadas Sedekerskis and Matt Costello didn't play last week due to injuries, but both have a chance to be in the team for this match. Even if that's not the case, players like Markus Howard, Chima Moneke and Vanja Marinkovic have the necessary quality to ensure that Baskonia doesn't encounter problems here.
Asvel had few very good results lately. They defeated Bayern at road, thanks to dominance in the paint, but against Baskonia, that might not be the way to profit. Maik Kotsar has enough strength in the paint, and his role could be crucial for the hosts. Baskonia always plays at a fast pace and with a lot of transition in front of their fans. They will do the same now. In the end, it should be enough for a comfortable win with at least a two or three-possession difference. The problematic aspect for Baskonia is that they rarely achieve convincing double-digit wins, so it won't be a surprise if they once again celebrate with a single-digit, even though they are much better than Asvel.
Milano – Real Madrid: Last chance for the hosts
08/02/24 CET 19:30
If Milano loses to Real Madrid in this round, it will be almost impossible for them to qualify for the EuroLeague play-in. If that happens, it will be a debacle. They assembled a team that was supposed to take them to the Final Four, but everything indicates that they might not even finish in the top 10. Although head coach Ettore Messina is primarily responsible for this, he still has the trust of owner Giorgio Armani. While it's true that Nikola Mirotic and Shavon Shields missed many games due to injuries, even with them in the roster, the team suffered heavy defeats against Anadolu Efes and Panathinaikos last week.
Real Madrid will finish the regular season of the EuroLeague in the first position. The only question is what their win-loss ratio will be. In a situation where they have complete comfort, they can play without pressure and any risks. The best player, Walter Tavares, has been sidelined for several weeks due to injury, and the club will not rush his return to the court. A similar situation applies to veteran Sergio Llull. Even without them, Real Madrid is too dominant. Dzanan Musa was named the EuroLeague MVP for January, and Mario Hezonja is also in phenomenal form. However, losses in the domestic league to Murcia and Gran Canaria showed that they can occasionally be defeated.
On paper, Milano has the quality to compete with Real Madrid. The problem is that on the court, they look terrible, and it doesn't seem like that will change anytime soon. They are now backed against the wall, and this is literally a "win or go home" game for them. A victory could give them a significant boost to start a series of excellent results, bringing them back into the play-in race. However, a loss would definitively mean the end of their hopes in the EuroLeague. This game will show whether they have the character or not. If they do, they might overcome Real Madrid, not just stay close until the end. Otherwise, another disappointment awaits them.
Partizan – Bayern: Completely different ambitions
08/02/24 CET 19:30
At the beginning of the season, Partizan announced their intention to aim for a spot in the Final Four. Now, they seem to be happy if they qualify for the EuroLeague play-in. Several factors have influenced this. Their best player, Kevin Punter, missed many games in November, Aleksa Avramovic has been off the court more often than on it due to injury, while Zach LeDay has a much weaker offensive performance compared to last season. Aside from Punter, only James Nunnally has consistently contributed offensively. The biggest problem for the black and whites is in the paint, as a proper replacement for Mathias Lessort has not been found. Frank Kaminsky is ineffective in defense, while Bruno Caboclo lacks consistency. Therefore, the head coach Zeljko Obradovic turned to young Balsa Koprivica more during the match against Virtus.
For Bayern, this season is about laying the foundation for what is to come in the future. Head coach Pablo Laso came to build a big project, and in the first season, the priority is to win the Bundesliga title. The EuroLeague represents a sort of bonus, although it's clear they won't be part of the playoffs this season. Therefore, their results fluctuate a lot, and losses to Asvel and Olympiacos indicate significant weaknesses. Serge Ibaka will surely have an advantage under the hoop compared to Partizan's centers, but that won't be enough to secure a triumph. Partizan hasn't often dominated and achieved double-digit wins at home, and there's no guarantee they will do so now. However, it's realistic for them to win by at least two or three possessions. This isn't a game where Bayern can count on success.
Valencia – Olympiacos: A turning point for both teams
08/02/24 CET 19:30
This game will largely determine the future of both teams in the EuroLeague. A win for Olympiacos would be a significant step towards securing a playoff spot, while Valencia would confirm that they are a serious contender for the play-in. The problem for both teams is the absence of their star players. Brandon Davies (Valencia) and Nikola Milutinov (Olympiacos) are injured, forcing coaches to turn to alternative solutions. Olympiacos has better alternatives as they recently signed Moses Wright, and there's a chance that Moustapha Fall could return for this matchup. Valencia lacks a suitable backup option, so they will improvise with Damien Inglis and Semi Ojeleye in the center position.
Valencia is capable of playing one of the best defenses in the entire EuroLeague. Earlier in the season, they surprised Olympiacos in Piraeus, and they certainly have the confidence that they can do it again. However, they will need to play tough on the perimeter and force weaker shooters of Olympiacos like Thomas Walkup and Ignas Brazdeikis into difficult three-point attempts. Isaiah Canaan and Alec Peters are always threats from beyond the arc, and the outcome of the game will depend on their shooting percentages. One thing is certain – both teams prefer to play at a slow pace. The previous game ended with a score of 63:56, and not much has changed since then, so another low-scoring affair can be expected. Definitely not as low-scoring as the last time, but if we see more than 155 points combined, it would be a surprise.
Crvena Zvezda – Zalgiris: The end of the road for one of the teams
09/02/24 CET 19:00
The team that loses this game will likely be without any realistic chances of making it to the EuroLeague play-in. Crvena Zvezda entered the season with higher ambitions than Zalgiris, but the fact is they have assembled a team poorly. There is not a single playmaker other than Milos Teodosic, and when he is not in form, Crvena Zvezda looks very weak. Luka Mitrovic is experiencing a significant decline in form and Nemanja Nedovic lacks consistency in good performances. All of this leads to fluctuations, as evidenced by Crvena Zvezda being capable of destroying Valencia and then being destroyed by Barcelona in front of 20,000 of their own fans within a three-day span.
Zalgiris has been playing significantly better since Andrea Trinchieri became the head coach. They have achieved double-digit wins at home against Panathinaikos, Anadolu Efes and Fenerbahce, while also finding a way to outplay Valencia on the road. They definitely have better momentum than Crvena Zvezda and come to Belgrade with a lot of optimism. Against Partizan a few weeks ago, they had three very good quarters and will now aim to play at the same rhythm for the entire 40 minutes. If they succeed, they can definitely stay close until the very end and maybe even cause an upset. Crvena Zvezda is capable of a convincing victory, but they haven't achieved many such wins, and Zalgiris is a tough opponent.
Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce: The better team should have an edge
09/02/24 CET 19:15
At this moment, Panathinaikos appears to be a better team than Fenerbahce. Despite an unexpected loss to Zalgiris in the last round, the "Greens" have been showing significantly better performances in front of their home crowd. They have five consecutive home wins, with four of them having a double-digit margin. Mathias Lessort continues to play as the best center in the EuroLeague for the second year in a row, Kendrick Nunn makes a significant contribution on both ends of the court, and the return of Kostas Sloukas is anticipated. With their current form, Panathinaikos can certainly go far in this competition.
Fenerbahce also has the highest ambitions, but they don't seem as formidable as Panathinaikos. In the last round, they lost to Monaco, but a more significant issue is how easily they squandered the lead they had in the first half. The impression is that Fenerbahce lacks a leader and someone who will take the ball in crucial moments of the game. Scottie Wilbekin was projected for that role, but he is not at the level he was two or three years ago. To beat Panathinaikos in Athens, it's necessary to perform at a high level for the entire 40 minutes, and it seems that Fenerbahce is not yet at that level. Therefore, it's more realistic for Panathinaikos to come out triumphantly. It may not be particularly convincing, but the "Greens" are only interested in win, even if it's minimal. A win with at least a two-possession lead seems the realistic scenario as well.
Barcelona – Alba Berlin: The only question is what the point difference will be
09/02/24 CET 19:30
Barcelona is too dominant at home to allow a defeat here. Although Alba Berlin sensationally outplayed the Catalans earlier in the season, it will serve as additional motivation for the hosts to secure a convincing win this time. Barcelona is regaining form, as evidenced by their significant wins against Virtus and Crvena Zvezda last week. Dario Brizuela played one of the best matches of his career in Belgrade, and Jan Vesely has been dominating in the past few months.
On the other hand, Alba Berlin doesn't have significant ambitions in this competition. Their primary focus this season is competing for the Bundesliga title. In the EuroLeague, they only have five wins, and that number won't change after this round. It's realistic to expect Barcelona to establish a double-digit lead in the first half, which will likely grow to over 15 points at some point. In the end, a similar difference that favors the hosts is anticipated for a final outcome.
Virtus – Monaco: It's time to end the unreal streak
09/02/24 CET 19:30
Virtus has an impressive 11-1 record in Bologna this season. They suffered a loss in the first round against Zalgiris in front of their fans and then went on to win 11 consecutive games. Last week, they made a late comeback against Partizan and have a great chance of finishing within the top 4. Toko Shengelia has returned after an injury and Gabriel Lundberg once again played a decisive role in the final moments. However, this is a game where their remarkable home winning streak in Bologna could be at risk. Monaco, possibly in the best form in the EuroLeague, is coming to the university town.
Monaco has secured victories in the last four rounds against teams like Real Madrid, Anadolu Efes, Partizan and Fenerbahce. The return of Jordan Loyd has added another crucial player to their backcourt. Things look better for Monaco when he is on the court. Elie Okobo has learned his lesson after suspension, and Mike James acts and leads the team as a true leader. With all these factors, head coach Sasa Obradovic can be happy. There is no reason why Monaco would stop playing as they have recently, and if they replicate their performance from the last four games, they should return triumphantly from Bologna.