Euroleague – Round 27
Alba Berlin – Maccabi Tel Aviv: Defeat is not an option for the visitors
29/02/24 CET 19:00
Maccabi Tel Aviv had a difficult schedule before the international break, losing three consecutive games in the EuroLeague against Real Madrid, Baskonia and Anadolu Efes. Unlike most other clubs, their foreign players did not have national team commitments, allowing head coach Oded Kattash enough time to address issues. Maccabi was just one win away from the EuroLeague Final Four last season, and their goal is to reach that stage again.
In terms of individual talent, Maccabi is far superior to Alba Berlin. If they want to fulfill their ambitions, these are the kinds of games they cannot afford to lose. Alba has been performing poorly throughout the season, with almost no one consistently delivering solid performances except Johannes Thiemann. Additionally, their offense is not as lethal as in previous years. While Martin Hermannsson has slightly increased the pace, it is not enough for any serious results. Realistically, Maccabi should have complete control over this game, and it's highly likely that there will be many early shots from both teams. This could lead to a higher scoring game unless three-point shooting percentages are exceptionally poor. A Maccabi win without a dramatic ending is the most realistic outcome.
Partizan – Anadolu Efes: A turning point for both teams
29/02/24 CET 19:30
After this game, one of these two teams will drastically reduce its chances of qualifying for the EuroLeague play-in. Partizan is on a three-game losing streak, with the most painful being the one against Bayern when Sylvain Francisco hit the game-winning shot in the last second. The black and whites persistent issue throughout the season has been pick'n'roll defense. Frank Kaminsky is a significant weakness on that side of the court, and the addition of Bruno Caboclo hasn't changed much. On the flip side, Partizan boasts the second-best offensive rating in the competition, and things function seamlessly on that end. Kevin Punter has significantly improved his form, Zach LeDay had a strong performance in the Serbian Cup, giving some joy to head coach Zeljko Obradovic.
A month ago, Anadolu Efes seemed completely lost. After a tough loss to Zalgiris with a score of 96:70, the board management made a desperate move. They fired head coach Erdem Can and gave a chance to Tomislav Mijatovic, who has been an assistant in the staff for over a decade. Under his command, everything turned around. Anadolu Efes outplayed Milano and Maccabi Tel Aviv, remaining theoretically in the play-in contention. However, to secure a spot there, they cannot afford a loss to Partizan, as it would set them back two steps again.
While Partizan should have a slight advantage, it's somewhat surprising to see them heavily favored by bookmakers. A loss in this game will undoubtedly cause severe damage to one of the teams. Partizan's advantage lies in playing in front of 20 thousand united fans, as well as having a head coach who has won the EuroLeague nine times in his career. On the other side is a rookie coach, and in a game of this intensity, importance and pressure, managing the game could play a decisive role. It's not easy to believe that Partizan can outplay someone without struggle, but if they can at least slow down Shane Larkin a bit, they will do a great job. Drama is almost inevitable, but Partizan should have the edge.
Virtus – Valencia: A new fresh start
29/02/24 CET 19:30
The international break has come at the best possible moment for Virtus. They have lost three out of their last four games in the EuroLeague and shockingly were eliminated by Reggiana in the the Italian Cup quarterfinals. This is not surprising as, at some point, there had to be significant fatigue. Virtus has the oldest team in the EuroLeague, and it was not possible for them to play at an exceptionally high level consistently. However, this break will undoubtedly help them regenerate. Although several key players like Toko Shengelia, Gabriel Lundberg and Isaia Cordinier were with their national teams, the same cannot be said for Daniel Hackett, Marco Belinelli and Bryant Dunston. They needed the rest and are sure to perform at a high level once again.
One of Virtus' biggest strengths this season is their home court. They have an 11-2 record at home in the EuroLeague, losing only to Monaco and Zalgiris. Both defeats came in dramatic finishes, so they could have remained undefeated in front of their fans. Valencia is playing a different style this season, with a complete focus on their defense. However, the question is whether they can threaten Virtus in that manner. It is much more realistic to see the hosts with the same energy they have shown throughout most of the season and ultimately secure a win with a margin of at least two or three possessions.
Real Madrid – Panathinaikos: Spectacle is guaranteed
29/02/24 CET 19:45
Real Madrid is playing basketball from another planet this season. They are at 22-4 in the EuroLeague and are almost certain to finish in the first position before the playoffs. In addition, they have won the Spanish Cup and the Spanish Super Cup, making them on track for a perfect season. They are also leading in Liga Endesa, and it seems like no one can stop them. Walter Tavares, Facundo Campazzo, Mario Hezonja, Dzanan Musa, Gabriel Deck and Guerschon Yabusele bring tremendous quality, while the experience of Sergio Llull, Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez is invaluable. In basketball, anything is possible, but it seems that this Real Madrid can only experience a setback if they face a significant number of injuries in the most crucial period of the season.
Panathinaikos can also be more than satisfied so far, although they haven't won any trophies yet. They were defeated by Olympiacos in both domestic competitions, but the EuroLeague is their priority, and they stand at a fantastic 16-10. They will do everything they can to finish within the top 4 and secure home-court advantage in the quarterfinals, and they definitely have the quality to do so. Mathias Lessort is statistically the best center in the competition, Kendrick Nunn is a perfect fit for coach Ergin Ataman in terms of character and playing style, and players like Marius Grigonis, Dinos Mitoglou, Luca Vildoza and Kostas Sloukas can complicate things for any opponent with their three-point shooting. Coach Ataman loves big games and is almost always in the spotlight. Perhaps the safest prediction is that he will have at least one technical foul.
Real Madrid is the favorite for a reason, and they will determine many aspects of the game. Their motivation will decide whether this will be a one-sided game or not. If Ataman adds fuel to the fire, it may only provoke anger from the hosts. Panathinaikos is playing really well, but this seems like a game that will entirely go in Real Madrid's direction, and it's not impossible for them to win by double digits, or at least without any drama in the last three minutes.
Fenerbahce – Baskonia: It shouldn't be too complicated
01/03/24 CET 17:45
Baskonia is one of the most unpredictable teams in the EuroLeague, but they have clear limitations in their game. Everything starts and ends with Markus Howard, who has the freedom to take over 10 three-point attempts. The outcomes of their games largely depend on his shooting percentages. When he's not in form, they are capable of losing to anyone, as evident in the Liga Endesa where they are in a weak ninth position outside the playoff zone despite being the third-best team on paper in Spain. Chima Moneke is also having an outstanding season, but in this game, he will be guarded by Nigel Hayes-Davis, which will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the outcome.
The fact is that Baskonia has the firepower to defeat anyone in Europe when things align, but they won't be in charge in this game. Fenerbahce plays a much more organized and disciplined style of basketball, and they also have greater individual quality. Head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius had plenty of time in the past two weeks to work with some players, and it's realistic to expect one of the best versions of Fenerbahce this time. If that is the case, they will secure a victory by at least three possessions. If not, there will be much cause for concern in the yellow-blue part of Istanbul.
Zalgiris – Olympiacos: Things have changed in Kaunas
01/03/24 CET 18:00
Since Andrea Trinchieri took over as the head coach of Zalgiris, everything has changed for the team. They are playing much better and smarter basketball, and that has automatically translated into results. Under the command of the Italian coach, they have a 4-0 record at home. They have defeated teams like Panathinaikos, Anadolu Efes and Fenerbahce by double digits, which speaks volumes about their improvement. Keenan Evans is in fantastic form and will be one of the most wanted players in the EuroLeague market in the summer. Edgaras Ulanovas is playing better than at the beginning of the season, and Laurynas Birutis is in the form of his life. All these factors are reasons for optimism.
If Zalgiris replicates the performance they have shown in the last two months, then they are definitely favorites against Olympiacos. The red and whites from Piraeus have a much better record than their actual situation. They have taken advantage of easier schedule lately to improve their position in the standings, but now they face real challenges. They are still playing without the injured Nikola Milutinov, placing a significant burden on Moustapha Fall and newcomer Moses Wright. Since the EuroLeague has been on a three-week break, it is challenging to know for sure how each team has reacted to the pause and how they will approach the first game. However, if both teams continue in the rhythm they showed in early February, Zalgiris is definitely in an advantageous position compared to Olympiacos.
Asvel – Milano: The visitors will be their own toughest opponent
01/03/24 CET 19:00
If we strictly look at individual quality, Milano is on a much higher level than Asvel in many aspects. Players like Shavon Shields, Nikola Mirotic, Shabazz Napier and Rodney McGruder are capable of winning games on their own with 25 or more points. Head coach Ettore Messina has won the EuroLeague four times and has more trophies than Asvel's head coach Pierric Poupet has big games in his career. This game holds extreme importance for Milano as they still have a chance to qualify for the play-in, while Asvel has long been out of contention. All these factors should mean that the visitors will win convincingly here without any drama.
However, things haven't gone smoothly for Milano this season. In the Italian Cup, they played two outstanding games in the quarterfinals and semifinals, only to be shockingly defeated by Napoli in the final. On paper, Napoli is significantly weaker than Asvel, for example. All of this indicates that the visitors in this game will have to overcome their demons and not allow fear to creep into their bones. It is crucial for Milano to establish control from the very beginning and build an early double-digit lead. If they succeed in doing so, there likely won't be any problems. But if Asvel manages to stay competitive until the middle of the third quarter, then anything could happen. Betting on the home team makes absolutely no sense, but it takes courage to put faith in Milano. In any case, the outcome will depend on their approach and control.
Barcelona – Monaco: A derby of the round that could go either way
01/03/24 CET 19:30
Barcelona and Monaco have identical ambitions this season. For both teams, the absolute minimum is reaching the EuroLeague Final Four, with the main goal being to win the competition. Barcelona had a better start to the season, but Monaco has been playing much better in the last two months, as evidenced by their convincing win over Barcelona (91:71) at the end of December. The problem with Barcelona this season is their lack of consistency and the inability to play good defense all the time. From this group of players, we have seen many times that they are capable of playing phenomenally on both ends of the court, but they have also appeared disinterested, allowing opponents to score over 85 points.
On the other hand, Monaco looks really powerful lately, especially Mike James who is one of the main candidates for the MVP award. However, defeating Barcelona at the Blaugrana is a special challenge since they have 13 out of 14 wins at home in the EuroLeague. Only Milano managed to defeat them at home, and that happened more due to underestimation. If we see the best version of Barcelona, a team ready to invest everything in defense, then their victory by at least two possessions is the most realistic outcome. But if that is not the case, and if Monaco smells blood, they will know how to capitalize on any opportunities presented to them.
Bayern – Crvena Zvezda: The significance of the game is not the same for both teams, 01/03/24 CET 19:30
With a significant win against Partizan in Belgrade, Bayern has re-entered the hunt for the play-in. It is still possible for them to finish within the top 10, but it will require consistent home wins and some surprises on the road. The positive aspect is that many players are improving as the season progresses. Sylvain Francisco has elevated his game, Andreas Obst is shooting better, and Serge Ibaka is a cornerstone for this team. Recovering from a tough injury, Vladimir Lucic is gradually finding his rhythm, and Bayern's recent success in winning the German Cup indicates that the team is moving in the right direction.
On the other hand, Crvena Zvezda has lost all realistic chances to make it to the play-in, even though they have only one win less than Bayern. Even if they win all their remaining games, there's no guarantee that an 18-16 record will be enough for the 10th place. Achieving a perfect record until the end of the season seems like a scenario from science fiction. The challenge for the red and whites lies in their weak defensive performances, where any team capable of penetration can cause them problems. Bayern possesses players like Edwards and Francisco who can exploit this weakness, and it's realistic that the Bavarians will capitalize on that. Additionally, Crvena Zvezda will have a tough task slowing down Ibaka, and it would be a surprise if the hosts don't secure this game with at least a two-possession difference in their favor.