Euroleague – Round 28
Anadolu Efes – Bayern: Individual quality will make the difference
07/03/24 CET 17:30
And it is absolutely in favor of Anadolu Efes. Throughout the season, this team has suffered a significant number of injuries, which is why they currently stand at 11-16. At one point during November and December, they had eight players on the injury list, making it impossible to achieve more in such circumstances. If they had been healthy, they would likely have been contenders for the Final Four. Shane Larkin, alongside Mike James, is the best point guard in the EuroLeague. Darius Thompson serves as one of the best backup point guards, and players like Will Clyburn, Rodrigue Beaubois and Elijah Bryant bring huge extra quality.
Despite the challenging situation, Anadolu Efes will not give up as long as there is a mathematical chance to qualify for the play-in. They need to embark on a streak of consecutive victories, and it should start against Bayern. The Bavarians might be playing their best basketball currently, but it's unlikely to be enough to threaten Anadolu Efes in Istanbul. Their greatest advantage lies in Serge Ibaka under the basket and excellent shooters like Andreas Obst, Carsen Edwards and Sylvain Francisco. Nevertheless, Anadolu Efes statistically boasts the fourth-best offense in the EuroLeague based on offensive rating, while Bayern ranks fifth worst. This will ultimately decide the match. There probably won't be any drama in the finish, and the hosts are expected to win by at least five or six points.
Monaco – Crvena Zvezda: The only question is how badly the hosts want it (07/03/24 CET 18:00)
The outcome of this game should not be brought into question. Monaco is currently the best team in the EuroLeague, boasting six consecutive wins against formidable opponents such as Real Madrid, Anadolu Efes, Partizan, Fenerbahce, Virtus and Barcelona. All these teams have high ambitions in the EuroLeague, and Monaco's victories demonstrate their immense strength. Mike James is almost certain to be the MVP of this competition, Elie Okobo has been playing more maturely recently, and Jordan Loyd is consistently capable of scoring over 15 points. Monaco's frontcourt features three completely different players. Donatas Motiejunas can quickly destroy opponents, as seen against Barcelona at the beginning of the third quarter. Donta Hall excels at protecting the rim, and Mam Jaiteh can contribute positively on both ends of the court.
On the other hand, Crvena Zvezda is one of the worst teams in the EuroLeague this season, with their primary focus shifted to the ABA League. In their loss to Bayern, their best player Milos Teodosic did not play due to a minor injury. It's likely that Teodosic will have limited minutes until the end, as the team is not the same without him, as evident in their scoring performance of only 66 points in Munich. There are no alternatives at the point guard position, and at the moment, Crvena Zvezda's focus is on winning the ABA League. If Teodosic were to get injured before then, it would jeopardize their chances. Therefore, Crvena Zvezda may not have a significant competitive motive, and Monaco is aware of this. The only question is how much Monaco will want to dominate the guests. They have the quality to win this game by a double-digit margin, which is the most realistic outcome. However, they might not exert maximum effort, as even with 50% of their strength they can secure the victory, and that's what matters most.
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Zalgiris: A very tricky game (07/03/24 CET 19:05)
If we only consider what we saw in the previous round of the EuroLeague, the logical conclusion is that Maccabi Tel Aviv will win this game convincingly. During the international break, they didn't have many players with national teams, so head coach Oded Kattash used that time to fine-tune things. In that period, they played a few games in the domestic league, and all of that contributed to a perfect performance against Alba Berlin. On the other hand, Zalgiris played one of their worst games of the season, losing at home to Olympiacos by 76:95. However, that is not a realistic indicator of the quality difference between these teams, as Thomas Walkup and Shaq McKissic combined for 42 points and six three-pointers. Knowing that both are usually poor shooters, it's unlikely that they will both shoot so well in the same game ever again. Zalgiris tested them and was punished.
Zalgiris is aware that this is their last chance to stay in the race for the EuroLeague play-in. They are three wins behind Maccabi Tel Aviv, and they could narrow that gap with a victory on neutral ground in Belgrade, where this game will be held. These two teams have completely different approaches. Maccabi leans towards run-and-gun basketball with many shots and early offensive solutions. Zalgiris prefers organized play, seeking the best solutions. The team that manages to impose its style will be closer to win. Maccabi has the advantage in individual quality, but Zalgiris has a better coach and is more desperate. Moreover, Zalgiris is statistically the best team in three-point shooting (40.2%), and when they hit from a distance, anything is possible. Maccabi allows 87.8 points per game and has one of the worst defenses in the league. Simply put, anything is possible in this matchup.
Valencia – Barcelona: It all comes down to the visitors approach (07/03/24 CET 19:30)
Barcelona boasts a roster with a lot of talent. Nicolas Laprovittola and Tomas Satoransky shine in the backcourt, complemented by the addition of Ricky Rubio. The frontcourt features Willy Hernangomez and Jan Vesely, a formidable combination in the paint. Nikola Kalinic is recognized as one of the most versatile 3-and-D players in Europe, with three Final Four appearances in the last three seasons attesting to their qualities. However, this season brings a different dynamic. Rookie head coach Roger Grimau seems to have little control over the team, granting them more freedom, which is often abused, leading to unpredictable performances. It's challenging to predict which version of Barcelona will show up – the one capable of defeating top teams like Real Madrid, Panathinaikos and Olympiacos or the one susceptible to losses against seemingly weaker opponents such as Alba Berlin, Manresa and Zaragoza.
Valencia has won two out of three matchups against Barcelona this season, despite having a less talented roster. Intriguingly, all three clashes ended with a margin of three or four points in favor of the winning team. This pattern is likely to continue, bringing uncertainty and drama until the last second. Valencia boasts the best defensive rating in the EuroLeague at 107.3, even surpassing Real Madrid's defensive rating (number of allowed points per 100 possessions) of 107.9. In the last round, Valencia's defense allowed 87 points to Virtus, and they will be highly motivated to redeem themselves in front of their fans. Yet, everything depends on Barcelona's approach. If they fall short, Valencia could secure a convincing win. However, a dramatic finish and a game with fewer than 160 points seem the most probable outcomes.
Real Madrid – Fenerbahce: The alarm bell is ringing and it's time to react (07/03/24 CET 19:45)
For months, everyone has been talking about how this Real Madrid team is the most dominant in the 21st century. They boast the most powerful center line with Walter Tavares and Vincent Poirier, super-talented players like Mario Hezonja and Dzanan Musa, the best power forward combination in Gabriel Deck and Guerschon Yabusele, and Facundo Campazzo, one of the best point guards in the EuroLeague. The experience brought by Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Llull and Sergio Rodriguez is needless to say. All of this has led to Real Madrid winning the Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey, plus currently holding a dominant top spot in both the EuroLeague and Liga Endesa. However, in the last two rounds, they suffered tough losses to Milano and Panathinaikos, raising questions.
Real Madrid is set to finish the EuroLeague regular season in the first position, but for a team that has dominated the entire year, they don't want uncertainty to creep into their ranks. The best thing for them is that after the defeat to Panathinaikos, they face Fenerbahce in the Spanish capital. The Turkish giant is one of the best teams in the EuroLeague, but not on the level of Real Madrid. It's an excellent opportunity for the hosts to secure a convincing win by at least a three-possession or a double-digit win to silence the critics. If they weren't motivated enough against Panathinaikos in the last round, they surely will be against Fenerbahce. It also works in their favor that Fenerbahce has only four wins in 14 road games in the EuroLeague and they are not nearly as good on their home court in Istanbul or elsewhere.
Olympiacos – Virtus: Tornike Shengelia's status plays a big role (07/03/24 CET 20:00)
The best player of Virtus, Tornike Shengelia, got injured against Valencia. Fortunately for him, the injury is not too serious, and a longer break is not expected. However, there is still no information on whether he will travel with the team to Piraeus. With or without him, things are entirely different. Shengelia is crucial for Virtus' outstanding results as the team's defensive fortress, and he can outsmart any defender in the low post in offense. Last weekend, Virtus lost to Sassari in Serie A, and the absence of the Georgian player was a significant factor.
To overcome Olympiacos at road, Shengelia's presence is necessary, especially at this moment when the red and whites are playing their best basketball of the season. Thomas Walkup has developed into a true floor general, consistently taking responsibility and not hesitating to shoot despite it being the weakest part of his game. Isaiah Canaan has been in poorer form lately, but it does not affect the results. For head coach Georgios Bartzokas, the key is that the team's defense is at the highest possible level because they always find a solution in the offense. Expect the same now. Olympiacos will try to impose their style through solid defense, preventing the opponent from having many easy shots and ultimately triumphing.
This match holds double significance as both teams are fighting for the top 6 and direct qualification for the EuroLeague playoffs. Considering Virtus' earlier triumph by two points this season, the winner of this match will likely have a better head-to-head record. Olympiacos is aware of this, as a win here represents a turning point for the season. When such a significant stake is involved, nerves can creep in. Without Shengelia, Virtus might struggle here, and realistically, we might witness a convincing victory for the home team. However, if Shengelia is on the court, it's entirely possible to see a dramatic and close game, where a couple of possessions and plays will decide the winner.
Panathinaikos – Asvel: Party for home fans (08/03/24 CET 19:15)
Last week, Panathinaikos achieved their biggest win of the season, and perhaps in years. They defeated Real Madrid on the road with a double-digit difference, making it clear to everyone what their head coach Ergin Ataman constantly emphasizes—that they are capable of winning the EuroLeague this season! With 26 points, Mathias Lessort outplayed Walter Tavares in a direct duel, and Kostas Sloukas played his best game in Panathinaikos' jersey. Kendrick Nunn consistently performed at a high level, making this team look intimidating to all opponents. They are sure to appear as monsters for the guests from Villeurbanne.
Along with Alba Berlin, Asvel has been one of the weakest teams in the EuroLeague for several seasons. Despite defeating Milano in the last round, this doesn't change the fact. This is a match where Panathinaikos will absolutely dominate and likely secure a convincing double-digit victory. Asvel's advantage often lies in physical strength due to having several good athletes in the team. However, against players like Lessort, Mitoglou and Hernangomez, this won't be a significant factor. On the contrary, they will be in a subordinate position. This is a game where the home fans will enjoy witnessing numerous dunks from Lessort and beautiful plays, and the winner will not be in question for a moment. It's possible that at some point, the lead will be over 20 points.
Baskonia – Alba Berlin: It's not easy to completely trust the most unpredictable team (08/03/24 CET 19:30)
On paper, Baskonia is a massive favorite against Alba Berlin. A win here is crucial for them to maintain a top 8 position and improve their chances of making it to the EuroLeague playoffs. However, Baskonia is the most unpredictable team in the competition, capable of defeating anyone but also prone to unexpected losses. These unexpected defeats have been more evident in Liga Endesa where they are not even in the top 8 despite having the third-best team in Spain. Simply put, they adhere to a style of basketball where everything depends on three-point shooting and solid defense. In the last round against Fenerbahce, they shot impressively and still lost, allowing the opponent to score 111 points. Therefore, there are no guarantees of win even when they have a good shooting night.
Alba Berlin is at the bottom of the standings with only five wins. Their only away win was against Asvel, and it would be shocking if they secured another one in Vitoria. However, Baskonia is not a team on which you would confidently place a big bet. This is a game in which it's realistic for them to impose their tempo and win by a double-digit margin. However, it wouldn't be a first-rate surprise if they were to lose. For instance, in this round of the EuroLeague, Panathinaikos and Baskonia are almost identical favorites against their respective opponents. Still, a Panathinaikos loss is nearly unthinkable, which is not the case for Baskonia. Yet, most likely, both teams will secure a double-digit victory.
Milano – Partizan: All-in stakes for both teams (08/03/24 CET 19:30)
Milano was without four key players last week in Villeurbanne, including Nikola Mirotic, Shabazz Napier and Stefano Tonut. And without them, they managed to lose to the weaker Asvel with a score of 81:77. This brought their record to 11-16, and they now have only mathematical chances to qualify for the EuroLeague play-in. If they were to lose to Partizan, these chances would likely be extinguished, making this a de facto "win or go home" situation for them. Given that their ambitions last summer were to reach the EuroLeague Final Four, their current position is below all expectations, and fans are extremely dissatisfied.
Partizan is in a slightly better position after a win against Anadolu Efes, but there's still a long way ahead for Zeljko Obradovic's team. A loss here wouldn't be catastrophic, but looking at the long term, it makes a significant difference. A win here would leave the black and whites with realistic chances to finish the regular season in eighth place, and there is a huge difference between finishing in eighth or ninth place after the 34th round. In the eighth position, you have two chances to secure a spot in the playoffs, while in the ninth position, you have to win both games in play-in, with the second being an away game.
The form of some Partizan players is definitely on the rise. Aleksa Avramovic, Danilo Andjusic and Zach LeDay played their best games of the season against Anadolu Efes. However, Partizan's problem lies in heavily relying on three-point shooting, which is challenging against Milano who capable of playing defense at the highest level. Expect a tough game where the hosts will have the edge. Partizan needs to shoot over 50% from three-point range to give themselves a good chance, and that's not an easy task. The guests will depend on the unpredictability of the hosts and the apparent issues in the locker room. After the loss to Asvel, things are surely not at their best in terms of chemistry and atmosphere, and if Milano is disinterested, anything is possible. However, assuming the hosts will be focused and motivated, they have the advantage and are more likely to win.