Euroleague, Round 29
Fenerbahce – Valencia
14 Mar, 2024 18:45 CET
Quality and momentum favour the hosts
Fenerbahce secured a notable win against Real Madrid last week, showcasing their excellent form. Prior to that, they also clinched the Turkish Cup, arriving in high spirits for their upcoming matchup versus Valencia. Head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius has successfully implemented his ideas, leaving a clear impact on the team. Fenerbahce plays with a significant level of responsibility on both ends of the court. Despite Jasikevicius' emphasis on defense, this Fenerbahce team possesses substantial offensive potential, allowing more freedom to the players than during his tenure with Barcelona. The duo of Nick Calathes and Scottie Wilbekin excels in the backcourt, while Nigel Hayes-Davis and Johnathan Motley prove to be pivotal inside.
Valencia currently sits in 10th place with a 13-15 record, a position that leads to the play-in stage. However, this seems more like an illusion than a realistic scenario. The team faces an extremely tough schedule in the remaining six games, and it would take a miracle for them to stay in the top 10. A victory in Istanbul this week could contribute to that miracle, but it's not a realistic expectation. Although Valencia still boasts the best defensive rating in the entire competition, recent games against Virtus and Barcelona have shown that their defensive solidity is not as strong as in the first half of the season. Limiting the opponent to below 80 points will be a tough task this time. On the other hand, this isn't a game where Brandon Davies and Semi Ojeleye can inflict much damage, indicating that the hosts are likely to triumph without too much stress. A victory with a margin of three or four possessions and a 10-point difference seems the most probable outcome.
Olympiacos – Panathinaikos
14 Mar 2024, 18:45 CET
Every basket will have to be earned
This is a game that will determine the further course of the season for both teams. After several years of struggling at the bottom of the EuroLeague, Panathinaikos has finally invested heavily. They have set two goals for themselves: dethrone Olympiacos in Greece and win the EuroLeague in one of the next few seasons. There is no doubt that Panathinaikos has risen and looks like one of the best teams on the continent. However, Olympiacos has won the Greek Super Cup and the Greek Cup, making their season more successful so far, although that could change.
Before this round, Panathinaikos has one more win in the EuroLeague. Olympiacos triumphed earlier in the season as a guest in O.A.C.A. after overtime, meaning that the team that wins this match will have a better head-to-head record. This could make the difference between the fourth and fifth positions, determining whether they have home-court advantage in the quarterfinals. All this indicates how crucial Thursday's game is and how focused both teams will be. In this context, victory is not just double but potentially triple in importance. With that in mind, Panathinaikos is the team that has more to lose. They have been playing fantastic basketball in the last two months, possibly the best in Europe. Yet, a loss here could drop them below the fourth position on the table.
Considering that both teams have the quality to outperform each other, predicting the winner is extremely difficult. This is a classic 50/50 game that could very well end in a dramatic fashion. However, one thing should be relatively certain. Olympiacos lacks offensive potential as guests, and they will do everything they can to assert themselves through solid defense. They demonstrated this in the Greek Cup final, winning by 69:58. Panathinaikos can also play phenomenally on defense, evident in both Athens clubs being in the top 5 for defensive rating in the EuroLeague. If we don't see exceptionally high three-point shooting percentages, it's challenging to imagine the game ending with more than 155 points. Out of the five head-to-head matches this season, four times there were less than 149 points after 40 minutes of play, and three times fewer than 128 points. This suggests what kind of game we can likely expect again.
Crvena Zvezda – Maccabi Tel Aviv
14 Mar 2024, 19:00 CET
Are the hosts tired of losing?
If this game were played in the first half of the season, Crvena Zvezda would probably have the edge. They defeated Maccabi Tel Aviv in front of empty stands on neutral ground and would likely be significant favorites to do the same in front of 20,000 of their own fans. However, things are different now. The red and whites has long lost any chance of being part of the postseason in the EuroLeague, as evidenced by their four consecutive losses. Milos Teodosic didn't even play against Bayern and Monaco because head coach Ioannis Sfairopoulos wants to rest and recover him for the ABA League playoffs. On the other hand, every remaining game for Maccabi Tel Aviv is like a final as they fight for a better position in the play-in.
All of this indicates that the outcome of this game will largely depend on the approach and motivation of the home team. They won't play with a white flag, but it's also unrealistic to expect them to have the same energy as the away team, for whom a win is more crucial. A common factor for both teams is their significant defensive issues, often showing irresponsibility on that side of the court. Realistically, we can expect a game with high intensity, a significant number of possessions, and a high-scoring affair if shooting percentages are at least average. It's not unthinkable for both teams to score more than 85 points. If Crvena Zvezda is interested and shows character, they can definitely secure a victory. If not, the visitors will know how to take advantage and capitalize.
Alba Berlin – Monaco
14 Mar 2024, 20:00 CET
There is no room for relaxing
Monaco is currently playing the best basketball in the EuroLeague. With seven consecutive victories against respectable opponents, they are on track to finish the regular season within the top 4. Given their relatively easier schedule compared to other teams, there's a high probability that Sasa Obradovic's team will secure the second position, bringing with it a potentially easier opponent in the playoffs. To achieve this, they must live up to the role of favorites in the upcoming games, and facing Alba Berlin provides them with an opportunity to do so.
The hosts find themselves at the bottom of the EuroLeague with only five wins in 28 games.Last week, they suffered an 88:71 defeat to Baskonia, and a similar result could be expected this time. In previous seasons, Alba Berlin was known for its excellent early-phase offensive solutions, but that is not the case this season. They currently have the lowest offensive rating in the competition (104.2). It's hard to believe that they can score more than 75 points against a team like Monaco. On the other hand, the visitors should have no trouble reaching 80 points or more, making a double-digit victory for Monaco a logical conclusion.
Barcelona – Partizan
14 Mar 2024, 20:30 CET
Centers should make the biggest difference
Barcelona currently holds the second spot in the EuroLeague with a 19-9 record, but they are aware that maintaining that position could be challenging, especially with Monaco having a better head-to-head and a considerably easier schedule. While their main goal is to stay in the top 4, they face upcoming away games against Fenerbahce and Panathinaikos, both contenders for Barcelona's position. This emphasizes the importance for the hosts to justify their favorite status and avoid any surprises, as a loss to Partizan could jeopardize their place in the top 4.
Partizan missed a significant opportunity last week in Milano, leading in the fourth quarter with a chance for a major win. However, once again this season, they allowed the opponent to score crucial baskets in the final moments. Finding a different outcome in Spain against Barcelona seems challenging. Simply put, Barcelona has a much higher quality under the boards. Partizan has struggled in the low post throughout the season, making it difficult for them to slow down or stop players like Jan Vesely and Willy Hernangomez. They will likely have to double-team them, creating space for numerous open three-point attempts. The outcome will heavily depend on Barcelona's accuracy from beyond the arc.
While Partizan will undoubtedly be extremely motivated, knowing that a win could make a difference in their play-in participation, their 3-12 record on the road in the EuroLeague this season indicates a lack of quality. It's not realistic for them to outperform a team like Barcelona, especially considering Barcelona's impressive 13-2 home record. Anything less than a double-digit victory for the hosts would be surprising, although Barcelona has occasionally surprised negatively their fans this season, more often in the Liga Endesa than in the EuroLeague.
Baskonia – Milano
14 Mar 2024, 20:30 CET
A place in the play-in is a stake
The outcome of this game will determine many things regarding who goes to the play-in and who doesn't. Milano currently stands at 12-16, and if they lose in Vitoria, their chances of finishing within the top 10 become almost nonexistent. On the other hand, a victory would bring them within just two wins of Baskonia, but with a 2-0 H2H record against them, which could be crucial if they end the season with the same number of wins as the Spanish club. Milano is aware that this is their last chance to enter the race for the EuroLeague postseason, and there's no doubt they will be highly motivated. The good news for them is that Nikola Mirotic and Shabazz Napier played excellent games against Partizan. Without them, they suffered a defeat to Asvel in the previous round, highlighting the importance of their presence.
This game is equally crucial for Baskonia, standing at 15-13, but facing perhaps the toughest schedule in the last five rounds of the EuroLeague. They have only one home game (against Anadolu Efes) and four difficult road matches. A loss here could lead them to miss out on the play-in, which would be a disappointing outcome. Consequently, their motivation will be as high as Milano's. Baskonia defeated Barcelona in Liga Endesa over the weekend in a historic game for Markus Howard, who scored 37 points and hit eight three-pointers. This serves as the best possible introduction to what awaits them on Thursday.
In terms of the game flow, Baskonia will insist on playing at a fast pace while trying to minimize turnovers. Codi Miller-McIntyre will need to control the tempo and prevent Milano from slowing down the game. The visitors will attempt to do so because they know that in a game with more than 165 points, it's challenging for them to hope for a victory. Milano shoots fantastically from three-point range, and their strategy will undoubtedly be to slow down the pace, play a low-possession game and with high three-point percentages, secure a win. Individual quality clearly favors the visitors, but Baskonia has shown better team basketball throughout the season. It's worth noting that in December, Milano defeated Baskonia by 76:67 despite missing their top three players (Shields, Mirotic, Napier). They executed defensively well, indicating that they know how to handle Baskonia. The game is challenging to predict, but the value is on the side of the visitors.
Asvel – Anadolu Efes
15 Mar 2024, 20:00 CET
An obstacle that must be overcome
Anadolu Efes still has a chance to finish the regular season in the EuroLeague top 10 and thus qualify for the play-in. The schedule is favorable, and it's not unthinkable for them to win all the remaining games. However, what looks easy on paper doesn't necessarily translate to the court. Asvel defeated Milano at home two rounds ago, showing that they won't surrender without a fight to anyone. Nando De Colo and Joffrey Lauvergne have taken full responsibility, proving that the veterans still have quality basketball in them.
Nevertheless, this is a game that Anadolu Efes cannot afford to lose. Their individual quality is much superior. Shane Larkin scored 28 points against Bayern last week and is in excellent form. Will Clyburn has also displayed a remarkable offensive repertoire in the last two games, with contributions from Elijah Bryant and Darius Thompson as well. The key for the visitors will be to match up in the low post. Daniel Oturu and Tyrique Jones must stop Lauvergne and Fall because that's where the key to success lies. If they don't allow the hosts to score a high number of easy points in the paint, this is a game that Anadolu Efes will win with at least a two-possession difference.
Bayern – Zalgiris
15 Mar 2024, 20:30 CET
It's much more important for one team than another
If Valencia and Partizan lose this week, which is highly likely, Bayern would secure the 10th position leading to the postseason with a win against Zalgiris. They have a better head-to-head record against both mentioned clubs and are still very much alive in the race for the play-in. The loss to Anadolu Efes last week set them back a step, but it didn't eliminate them like it did for Zalgiris. The defeat against Maccabi Tel Aviv sealed Zalgiris's fate, and even if they win all remaining games, it probably won't be enough for the 10th position.
In addition to greater motivation and the fact that they play at home, Bayern's significant advantage will be in the low post. Zalgiris lacks a center who can effectively guard Serge Ibaka. The Spaniard will undoubtedly establish dominance and create numerous open three-point shots for his teammates. In that aspect, we know how powerful Sylvain Francisco, Andreas Obst, Vladimir Lucic and Carsen Edwards are. Bayern looked excellent even against Anadolu Efes for 19 and a half minutes, and then, in the last 30 seconds of the first half, they made two amateur mistakes and that negative momentum carried over to the second half. They couldn't find a way out of that hole.
It is true that Zalgiris will not give up in advance, even though this game no longer has such significance for them, but it's hard to believe they can outplay Bayern in Munich. The guests have the best three-point shooting percentages in the entire EuroLeague, but the Bavarians are certainly capable of limiting them and not allowing them to shine. Pablo Laso's team had a couple of unexpected losses in front of their fans this season, but this is simply an opportunity they cannot afford to miss. They have worked hard in the last few months to put themselves in this position, and it would be disheartening not to win this match. Maybe it won't be a blowout, but a victory for Bayern is very likely.
Virtus – Real Madrid
15 Mar 2024, 20:30 CET
(Un)interested guests will decide everything
The outcome of this game will solely depend on whether the players of Real Madrid are interested in playing their best basketball. This has not been the case in any of the previous three EuroLeague games, especially appearing disgraceful against Fenerbahce. While it's true that they are at the top of this competition and will likely finish in the first position, playing with the reputation of the club is never a good thing. Last week, for most of the match against Fenerbahce, it looked as if they were in a casual training session. They attempted absurd things in the offense, lost balls in an amateurish manner, and didn't even bother to play defense. When this repeats three times in a row, it's clear that it's not accidental.
Virtus this season has an outstanding 12-2 record at home, and they will know how to capitalize on Real Madrid if their approach remains identical to the last three games. For the hosts, this is an extremely important game in their fight for a playoff spot. They will be highly motivated and will invest every ounce of energy to secure a win. Real Madrid will have to wake up at some point and show why they are rightfully at the top of the EuroLeague. Whether it will be now or next week is impossible to know. However, their individual quality is superior to Virtus.