Euroleague, Round 30

Anadolu Efes – Olympiacos

The pace of the game will be very important

Anadolu Efes suffered perhaps their toughest defeat of the season in the last round. They had a great chance to get closer to the play-in spots, but lost to Asvel, who were without Joffrey Lauvergne and Mike Scott. A lack of seriousness in that matchup is the main reason why Tomislav Mijatovic's team finds themselves where they are in the standings. They possess enormous individual quality in Shane Larkin, Will Clyburn, Darius Thompson and others, but all that talent in offense is in vain when they lack a good defensive approach. They have the worst defensive rating (120.7) in the entire competition, and that has defined their season.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that Anadolu Efes shows much better performances at home. While they have a dreadful 2-13 record away, they boast a phenomenal 10-4 record at home. They find it much easier to establish their desired rhythm in front of their fans, and that will be the key to success once again. They will do everything they can to push Olympiacos into a high-paced game and transition play, and if that happens, they will be closer to victory. Anadolu Efes has a much talented backcourt than the visitors, but they are inferior in the paint. This was evident against Bayern as well, however, they compensated with excellent three-point shooting. It's undeniable that they shoot better at home, and they will rely on that once again. Olympiacos will have completely opposite intentions. They will aim to slow down the game to the maximum and on that way to achieve their seventh consecutive win in the EuroLeague.

The team that will be more successful in executing their intentions will triumph. Olympiacos plays better team basketball, but Anadolu Efes is undoubtedly the favorite at home. Larkin has averaged 23 points in the last three home games in the EuroLeague, and he will definitely be the driving force once again. Thomas Walkup is one of the best defenders in the competition, but he will also have a tough evening trying to slow down arguably the best point guard in the competition.

Zalgiris – Virtus

The visitors crisis is evident

Virtus has lost five out of their last seven games in the EuroLeague, and it's obvious that the crisis isn't going away. Everyone expected their form to dip at some point because they have the oldest roster in the competition, and that's exactly what's happening now. Toko Shengelia definitely doesn't look as powerful as he did in the first part of the season. He's had a few injuries, and all of that has affected his performances. Against Real Madrid, Virtus only hit four three-pointers, which was their strong weapon in many games. Head coach Luca Banchi has worked wonders to get his team where they are, but none of that will matter if they don't make the playoffs in the end.

For Virtus to make the playoffs, it will be necessary to secure few more road wins by the end of the season. There won't be many opportunities like this one in Kaunas because Zalgiris no longer has any realistic chance of being part of the play-in. Losses to Maccabi Tel Aviv and Bayern have sealed their fate, but that doesn't mean they will give up in the remaining games. Especially not in the games they play in Kaunas in front of their fanatic fans. Zalgiris' biggest strength is three-point shooting, so even if Virtus is accurate from the distance, the hosts can easily respond in that aspect. Rolands Smits got injured against Bayern, and if he isn't on the court on Tuesday, it will be a significant handicap for Zalgiris, but even so, they will have an edge if their shooting percentages are at a decent level.

Alba Berlin – Real Madrid

A fun game without any pressure

This is one of the rare EuroLeague games that carries no weight. Real Madrid will almost certainly finish the regular season in first place, and Alba Berlin in last. What's currently more important for the hosts is what's happening in the Bundesliga, and for the guests, the priority is to ensure none of their key players get injured. That's why some veterans of Real Madrid like Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez have been frequently absent lately. Head coach Chus Mateo doesn't want to leave anything to chance and does what he can to preserve these players. With a double round coming up, it's quite possible that someone will be sidelined for the guests this time as well.

For Alba Berlin, the motivation will surely come from the fact that they're playing against the best team in Europe at their home court. Considering the circumstances, neither team is likely to play with particularly great commitment on defense. It's quite expected to see a high tempo, lots of running, and easy points at the basket. All of this will probably lead us to a total score of more than 160 points combined. Also, there's no doubt that Real Madrid is superior to Alba Berlin in terms of quality, but that would only hold true if we see the best performance from the guests, and there's a slim chance of that happening. Therefore, predicting the outcome of the match and how large Real Madrid win will be isn't very wise.

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Asvel

 The Israelis are incomparably more serious than Anadolu Efes

Anadolu Efes missed a huge opportunity in the previous round of the EuroLeague, but it's hard to believe that Maccabi Tel Aviv will repeat their mistake. Although the Israelis also have significant defensive issues, just like Anadolu Efes, their approach is much better, and they are far more dedicated to their goal. This was evident against Crvena Zvezda in the last round. Despite facing a big double-digit deficit in the first half, they showed much greater defensive commitment in the second half. Maccabi's aim is to finish within the top 8 to give themselves two chances in the play-in to secure a spot in the playoffs. A poorer head-to-head record against Baskonia will make things slightly harder, but if they avoid shocking defeats until the end, the odds are in their favor.

This is a game in which Maccabi will almost certainly triumph easily. Asvel's defense isn't good enough to slow them down in any way. Lorenzo Brown and Wade Baldwin control the tempo as they want, and Josh Nebo and Jasiel Rivero can match up with Asvel's centers. Moreover, the visitors have long been without any chance of success in the EuroLeague. They still show great desire in front of their fans, as was the case against Milano and Anadolu Efes, but once they leave Villeurbanne, things change. It's likely to be the same this time, and anything less than a double-digit victory for Maccabi would indeed be a big surprise.

Partizan – Baskonia

 It's time to rise

Regardless of its outcome, this season will be talked about a long time when it comes to Partizan. During the previous summer, ambitions were the highest possible. A campaign for the EuroLeague Final Four was announced, yet it seems we won't see the black and whiteseven in the playoffs. Poor defense is once again one of the main reasons for the disappointing results. Defense against the pick-and-roll is probably the worst in the entire competition because centers Frank Kaminsky and Bruno Caboclo struggle to read situations effectively. The backcourt players also don't shine defensively in one-on-one situations, contributing to their 13-16 record in the EuroLeague. That record would likely be even worse if Partizan didn't have the most passionate fans in Europe. They stand at 10-3 at home, but have only three victories on the road.

The good news for Partizan is that they still control their destiny, at least when it comes to making it to the play-in stage. Four out of their remaining five games are played in Belgrade, with the only away game against Alba Berlin, the lowest-placed team in the competition. This gives them realistic chances of breaking into the top 10. A win here would give them a better head-to-head record against Baskonia, keeping them mathematically in the game to overtake the club from Vitoria in the standings. Another good thing for Partizan is that this opponent suits their style of play. The visitors lack a dominant center, so this isn't a match where Caboclo and Kaminsky will suffer defensively as they have in many other games this season.

In front of 20,000 fans, Partizan will have much higher intensity. The goal will be to prevent the guests from hitting three-pointers at a high percentage. Markus Howard has been pushing boundaries lately and grabbing headlines with his performances, and he will surely be motivated in Belgrade as well. Chima Moneke could also have a good game, especially if Zach LeDay doesn't play. Partizan's power forward's father passed away, and Zach is currently in the United States. However, even without him, Partizan is a big favorite. They have greater individual quality than the visitors, they will have 20,000 fans behind them, they have a way to compete in three-point shooting, and they are not inferior in the paint. Anything but a comfortable win for the hosts by at least a two or three possessions difference would be a huge surprise. A win here could kickstart Partizan's rise and perhaps turn the season around. It wouldn't be the first time that head coach Zeljko Obradovic orchestrates a cinematic story. The material for it certainly exists.

Fenerbahce – Barcelona

Personal motivation will be at an extremely high level

One man will be the center of attention in this game, and that's Sarunas Jasikevicius. Over the past three years, he was the head coach of Barcelona and parted ways with them in a very ugly way. Recently, he even spoke in the media about not parting ways happily with the Catalans. Now, he will surely want more than anything for his Fenerbahce to demolish the opponent. And there are definitely conditions for such an outcome. The Istanbul club is in phenomenal form lately. Against Valencia, they hit 24 three-pointers, setting a new EuroLeague record previously held by Anadolu Efes with 22 shots made beyond the 6.75m line.

That game against Valencia wasn't a fluke, as we saw three weeks ago when they made 19 three-pointers against Baskonia. Between those two games, they defeated Real Madrid at roadand surely feel like a team capable of going all the way. Nick Calathes has found some strange new connection with Jasikevicius, Tyler Dorsey had a season-best game against Valencia, Scottie Wilbekin resembles his old self, and Tarik Biberovic is the new rising star of Turkish basketball. It seems like all Fenerbahce players are currently playing their best basketball and in a such good mood they host Barcelona.

This definitely isn't a trip where Barcelona players will feel comfortable. They have a 6-7 record on the road in the EuroLeague, and there have been quite a few bad losses. They play with much more enthusiasm at home in Blaugrana, while away they often look disoriented without a clear idea. Head coach Roger Grimau is often criticized precisely because Barcelona fans believe he's not as good a coach as Jasikevicius. And there's no doubt that the Lithuanian expert will want to prove that to everyone. Expect a easy win for Fenerbahce, and if the opportunity arises, it could become very ugly for the visitors. After all, Jasikevicius assembled most of this Barcelona team together, and he knows them best.

Monaco – Milano

Two completely different situations

Before the start of the season, Monaco and Milano had the same ambitions, to win the EuroLeague. Now, they find themselves in completely different situations. Monaco is on an excellent path to finish within the top 4 and secure home-court advantage in the EuroLeague quarterfinals, while Milano is unlikely to even be part of the play-in. There are many reasons for this, and injuries have had the greatest impact. However, that's not the only reason. Even now, when they are healthy and had a great opportunity in Vitoria to join the playoff race, they didn't embrace it. They played a pathetic game and were convincingly defeated 88:73 by Baskonia.

Likely, it will be similar in Monaco, it's just a matter of what margin the hosts will triumph by. Mike James and his teammates often start slowly and then shine in the second half. It was similar against Alba Berlin when they played on autopilot for more than 15 minutes, and then when they stepped up the pace, they overran their opponents. Something similar should be expected now. Milano may have a period in the game when they are close or level, but the much greater motivation of the hosts and better team basketball will likely lead to no drama in the finish. The only question is whether it will be a double-digit lead at the end or not, and that will be decided in the last few possessions.

Crvena Zvezda – Panathinaikos

The guests will feast

Crvena Zvezda has thrown in the towel in the EuroLeague. Since they have no chance of making it to the play-in stage, they don't attach any significance to the games anymore. Milos Teodosic has been out of action for a couple of weeks because they don't want to rush him back. Although he's not injured, the assessment of head coach Ioannis Sfairopoulos is that a short break will benefit one of the best players in the EuroLeague in this century. The absolute goal is to win the ABA League, and everything is now subordinated to that. In the loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv, Crvena Zvezda also didn't have Nemanja Nedovic and Branko Lazic. Their injuries are minor, and no risk was taken.

The question is who will even be on the court for Crvena Zvezda in this game. For Nedovic and Lazic, it wasn't known until an hour before the game that they wouldn't be in the roster. Something similar could happen now with some players. Regardless, Panathinaikos isn't concerned about that. They suffered a painful defeat to Olympiacos and jeopardized their place within the top 4. Home-court advantage in the EuroLeague quarterfinals often makes the difference between making it to the Final Four or not. Head coach Ergin Ataman is well aware of this, and focused and motivated guests are to be expected. Mathias Lessort will be particularly inspired as a former Partizan player, and there's no doubt that the home team's centers won't be able to match him. Everything points to an easy win for Panathinaikos, probably by a couple of possessions difference.

Valencia – Bayern

Both teams will have to fight hard for every point

Valencia and Bayern are still in the race for the 10th spot on the table, which leads to the EuroLeague play-in. The winner of this game will come closer to that goal, while the loser will remain far behind. All of this typically leads to high intensity and tremendous battle on the court. It should be no different this time. Valencia and Bayern are two teams that have built their trademark through hard defense. The hosts still have a top 3 defense by defensive rating (109.6), but they are the second worst in offensive rating in the entire competition. Bayern's offense is also among the top 5 worst in the EuroLeague.

These statistical data indicate that we should expect a low-scoring affair in Fonteta. Both teams will strive to slow down the pace to the maximum and outplay the opponent with tougher defense. The duels between Brandon Davies and Serge Ibaka in the paint will decide a lot, as well as three-point shooting. Whoever is more successful in these two aspects will likely emerge victorious. It's very difficult to predict who that will be, although Valencia has the advantage of playing at home. In any case, it will be a huge shock if we see around 160 points combined in this clash. If both teams perform at their usual level, then it will be hard to surpass even 150 points together.