Euroleague, Round 32

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Valencia: The Israelis are in fantastic form

Maccabi Tel Aviv has five consecutive wins and stands at 18-13 in the EuroLeague. They firmly hold the seventh position, and it's hard to imagine them slipping below as they have a better head-to-head record against Virtus. In the last round, they achieved a notable triumph at road in Munich and will try to replicate something similar now. Wade Baldwin is arguably playing the best basketball of his life. Over the past 18 months, he has often been overshadowed by Lorenzo Brown, but now he's the one holding the keys to the team. Jasiel Rivero had one of the best games of his career in Munich, and Josh Nebo has been consistently performing at a high level. Maccabi theoretically can climb into the top 6 by the end, so motivation won't be lacking for them.

Valencia had one win and one loss in last week's double round in the EuroLeague. First, they narrowly defeated Bayern in a dramatic finish, and then they were similarly defeated by Monaco. Their form is definitely on the rise considering how poorly they looked for most of February and March. Brandon Davies has missed the last few games due to a calf injury, and if he doesn't travel to Belgrade for this showdown, Valencia's centers will have a tough time dealing with Rivero and Nebo. Maccabi definitely has its ups and downs, as we saw against Asvel, but they play basketball at a much faster pace than Valencia, and that should come into play. This game certainly has the potential to go in all directions, but the most realistic outcome is a Maccabi triumph by at least two possessions.

Zalgiris – Milano: Someone will be written off

Both Zalgiris and Milano still have mathematical chances to qualify for the EuroLeague play-in. However, the host's chances are drastically slimmer. Zalgiris needs three wins in the remaining three rounds, along with three losses by Baskonia, which isn't impossible. Zalgiris has beaten Baskonia twice this season, and any tiebreaker with them would be in their favor. Milano only needs to win all their remaining games, with Partizan losing at least one game. If Ettore Messina's team doesn't triumph in all three games, it's very difficult to imagine them advancing with a 16-18 record to the next phase. All this indicates that for the losing team here, all realistic chances of qualifying for the play-in will disappear.

Zalgiris had a perfect double round last week, comfortably defeating Virtus and Baskonia, which theoretically kept them in the hunt for the top 10. Keenan Evans and Edmond Sumner are playing excellently, and Laurynas Birutis was impressive once again. There's a chance Roland Smits could return from injury, which would be an additional boost for Zalgiris. Their biggest weapon is the three-point shot, which Milano also heavily relies on. This guarantees a shooting spectacle where the team with better shooting percentages will benefit. The hosts surely have high confidence, and if they managed to destroy Virtus and Baskonia, there's no reason they can't do the same against Milano. They are definitely the favorites, but Milano's victories against Fenerbahce and Monaco came from playing their most mature games of the season. The individual quality is undoubtedly on the side of the visitors, but the hosts play much more team-oriented basketball. And usually, team basketball outplays individual talent. Nevertheless, this remains one of the most unpredictable games in the 32nd round.

Baskonia – Anadolu Efes: Two games in one

The game in Vitoria will be one of the most crucial in this EuroLeague round. With a victory, Baskonia secures a spot in the play-in, while a loss would significantly complicate their situation, especially considering their tough away games against Real Madrid and Virtus in the last two rounds. This is a must-win game for them, and they will be highly motivated. They usually shoot with much more confidence in their home arena, especially players like Chima Moneke, Vanja Marinkovic and Tadas Sedekerskis. Markus Howard, on the other hand, seems unfazed. He shoots equally well in all European arenas. Baskonia will also have in mind that they defeated Anadolu Efes by seven points earlier in the season in Istanbul, so in case of a loss, it's important not to lose by eight or more points to maintain a better head-to-head record.

Anadolu Efes is like a cat with nine lives. After their loss to Asvel, it seemed they had lost all realistic chances for a play-in spot, but that's not the case. Last week, they defeated Olympiacos and Alba Berlin, and some other results went in their favor, so they are still alive. However, they have a worse head-to-head record with almost all the teams around them in the standings, and without three wins in the last three games, they have nothing to look for. Anadolu Efes has a 2-13 record on the road this season, with only Alba Berlin having a worse record (1-14). This data certainly doesn't inspire optimism ahead of their trip to Vitoria.

Considering the playing style of Baskonia and Anadolu Efes, it's guaranteed that we'll see a game played at a very fast pace. Both teams like to resolve their possessions early with plenty of three-point shots. Howard and Larkin will surely have their showdown, and whichever superstar is more in the zone could tip the scales in favor of their team. Baskonia was in a similar situation two weeks ago before their clash with Milano, and they showed character. They secured a comfortable win and thus gave themselves a good chance to be part of the postseason. However, they need another triumph, especially against Anadolu Efes. If they don't collapse mentally, they should achieve it. A dramatic finish is certainly on the table as a possibility, but it's more realistic to expect Baskonia to secure their safety in the final two minutes.

Bayern – Barcelona: A reaction is necessary

With a loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the previous round, Bayern probably ended their EuroLeague season. Apart from this match, they have tough games against Panathinaikos and Monaco on schedule. Even if they win all of them, the chance of finishing in the top 10 is slim, and it's hard to imagine them outplaying all the mentioned clubs. They already face very slim chances this week against Barcelona, who come to Germany highly motivated. Barcelona suffered two unpleasant losses in the double round against Fenerbahce and Panathinaikos, endangering their top 4 position. Not only that, but in case of failure in Munich, they could even jeopardize their place within the top 6. In the 33rd round, they will host Maccabi Tel Aviv, who could have one less win at that point and could surpass Barcelona on the table with a victory at the Blaugrana. This is something Barcelona doesn't even want to consider, so they will do everything they can to defeat Bayern.

The quality is absolutely on the side of the visitors. Barcelona earlier in the season secured one of the most convincing wins against Bayern when the final score was 98:59. Bayern's greatest strength lies in their frontcourt with players like Serge Ibaka and Devin Booker. They often create a crucial advantage in that way, but in this game, that tactic is unlikely to succeed. Jan Vesely and Willy Hernangomez are even more dominant in those positions, and in the backcourt, the visitors have much higher quality and physically stronger players. It's precisely this physical strength that should tip the scales alongside their individual quality. Although Barcelona has often surprised their fans unpleasantly with poor results, the impression is that in Munich, all the crucial factors are in their favor. Therefore, we should expect an easy victory for the guests, perhaps even by a double-digit margin.

Partizan – Olympiacos: A game that the hosts cannot afford to lose

Partizan's mathematics is quite simple. Win all three remaining games, and you're almost certainly in the play-in. Their schedule favors them as they have games against Alba Berlin and Valencia after this one, so compared to their competitors, they hold their fate in their hands. The toughest task will be this week against Olympiacos, but Partizan definitely has reasons for optimism. They were close to outplay the red and whites in Piraeus earlier in the season and showed they can play against them even away from home. The style of basketball that Partizan plays definitely doesn't suit Olympiacos. We saw that in Istanbul last week when they lost to Anadolu Efes, whose offense is similarly lethal to what the Greeks will face this week in Belgrade.

For Olympiacos, it seems that the top 4 will remain just a wish. The loss to Anadolu Efes has distanced them significantly from that, and a loss in Belgrade would only confirm it. Georgios Bartzokas' team plays one of the best defenses in the EuroLeague, while in offense, they rely heavily on three-point shooting. Moses Wright has brought depth to the paint, but three-point shooting remains extremely important. When a team relies heavily on defense and three-point shooting, it's expected to show much better results at home. These are two factors that always come into play when your fans are pushing you from the stands. The first is a much higher defensive intensity, and the second is shooting percentages from downtown. They will be in hostile atmosphere this time and both those factors won't be in their favor. To outsmart Partizan, Alec Peters, Isaiah Canaan and Thomas Walkup will need to shoot exceptionally well.

A boost for Partizan will be the return of Zach LeDay, who was out last week due to his father's passing. Bruno Caboclo and Frank Kaminsky looked excellent as a tandem, and there's a high probability we'll see them frequently combining on the court again. Aleksa Avramovic is playing the best basketball of the season, Kevin Punter also looks good, and with more than 20,000 of their fans, Partizan should find a way to win this game. It may not be easy because it seems that's never been the case for the black and whites this season, but this is a match they mustn't allow themselves to lose.

Asvel – Monaco: It might be harder than expected

Everyone expects Monaco to easily outplay Asvel this week. In doing so, they would remain within the top 4, which is their primary goal to have home-court advantage in the EuroLeague quarterfinals. Asvel has long been out of any contention, and these games serve as preparation for what awaits them in the French League playoffs. However, Asvel has shown significant progress lately under head coach Pierric Poupet. In their last two home games, they outplayed Milano and Anadolu Efes, and they played evenly against Maccabi Tel Aviv and Olympiacos for over 30 minutes away from home. This just shows that they haven't given up and want to leave a good impression until the end, especially against a team with whom they have a national rivalry.

On the other hand, Monaco is under pressure. They cannot afford a loss. They used up that when they were outplayed by Milano last week. After their victory against Valencia, Mike James emphasized that the team is abnormally tired. They've played six games in ten days, and in such a rhythm, it's impossible not to feel a decline. Now they finally have some space to rest a bit, but in such a situation, it's very likely that we won't see Monaco's best performance, as we haven't in the previous few matches. They are the favorites, and it would be a huge surprise if they don't defeat Asvel, but it's much more realistic for it to be a single-digit victory rather than a double-digit one.

Fenerbahce – Alba Berlin: Another 100+ game?

Fenerbahce has scored over 110 points against Valencia and Baskonia both times at home. After that, they managed to outplay Barcelona, but their fantastic streak was broken away at Milano. To finish in the top 4, they need to win the remaining three games, with the first one coming against the worst team in the league. Alba Berlin definitely doesn't belong in this competition, and that's been evident year after year. They haven't won since January when they defeated Crvena Zvezda, and that won't change after this week. The only unknown is how efficient and convincing the hosts will be.

Sarunas Jasikevicius' team has an exceptional shooting potential. Scottie Wilbekin and Tyler Dorsey can easily score over four three-pointers on a good night, and the same goes for Tarik Biberovic, Nigel Hayes-Davis, Marko Guduric and Dyshawn Pierre. When several of them are in form, opponents suffer the fate of Valencia and Baskonia. If Fenerbahce wants to press the gas pedal to the maximum, then it's highly likely they'll score over a hundred points again and secure a comfortable victory by a double-digit margin of at least 15 points.

Real Madrid – Crvena Zvezda: An opportunity for players from the bench

This is a game that is very difficult to predict because neither team has a special motivation. Real Madrid secured first place in the regular season with a win against Partizan, and that won't change even in case of three losses to end the season. Crvena Zvezda has long been out of the race for the top 10, and they have used the previous games to test some bench players like Dalibor Ilic, who got more playing time than usual. Similarly, Real Madrid will likely do the same now, and players like Carlos Alocen, Eli Ndiaye and Hugo Gonzalez are expected to get some minutes, as they did last week.

If this game were played earlier in the season, Real Madrid would be the absolute favorite to win by a double-digit margin. They will probably do so now as well, although there are no guarantees. In their losses to Fenerbahce and Panathinaikos, we saw a disinterested version of Los Blancos. Perhaps that will be the case again now, and maybe they'll be satisfied with any kind of victory. It's simply impossible to know. Crvena Zvezda showed against Virtus that they want to end the competition on a high note, which may indicate that they will also give their maximum effort in the Spanish capital. It's unlikely that this will be enough for an upset, but it's not impossible for them to lose by a single-digit margin.

Virtus – Panathinaikos: Huge importance for both teams

Virtus has been in the top 4 for most of the regular season, and it seemed like they would have home-court advantage in the EuroLeague quarterfinals. However, that won't happen. They are the oldest team in the competition, and fatigue has caught up with them. Additionally, injuries have played a role. Toko Shengelia missed some games in early February, and last week they were without Daniel Hackett and Isaia Cordinier in a double round. When one player is missing, it's felt, let alone when several of them are unavailable for head coach Luca Banchi. A victory in the 34th round against Baskonia would confirm the eighth place for Virtus regardless of the outcome of the next two matches, but they would prefer not to have the last round match carry such significant importance. So they will do everything they can to defeat Panathinaikos, although it will be very difficult.

Panathinaikos has possibly been in the best form in the entire EuroLeague for several months. They made a huge comeback against Barcelona last week and completely dominated in the second half. Before that, they had no problems at Belgade against Crvena Zvezda, on the same court where Virtus was beaten by the red and whites a few days later. Kostas Sloukas has finally found the rhythm that was awaited, Mathias Lessort is the best center in the EuroLeague, and Dinos Mitoglou and Marius Grigonis are a constant threat from beyond the arc. Kendrick Nunn looks incredibly powerful in offense. He seems unstoppable in one-on-one situations. Head coach Ergin Ataman has expressed his desire for some more bench players to join the rotation, but that's up to them.

This is undoubtedly the derby of the round in the EuroLeague and could decide many things. A victory for Panathinaikos would keep them in second place with a huge chance to remain there even after the 34th round. This would bring them an easier opponent in the EuroLeague quarterfinals, along with home-court advantage. It's important not to forget that Panathinaikos has a 0-2 record in the head-to-head against Olympiacos, and any tiebreaker with them could push them back, maybe even out of the top 4. They currently have one more win than their biggest rival and will want to maintain that even after this round. Virtus will definitely put in maximum effort to secure a victory, but it seems that it won't be enough because Panathinaikos is currently at a much higher level. And realistically, the visitors will probablytriumph. Moreover, a loss could be much more tragic for the Greens than for Virtus, who can currently defend their position with any win against Baskonia in two weeks. And above that, even if they win all three matches until the end, they probably won't jump in front of Maccabi Tel Aviv in 7th place because they have a worse head-to-head record against them.