Euroleague – Round 33
Crvena Zvezda – Olympiacos: The hosts motivation will decide a lot
It's very difficult to predict how a team that has long been out of any race or competition will perform. That's the case with Crvena Zvezda. They will finish the EuroLeague in the 16th position, and their only concern is what will happen in the ABA League playoffs. It's true that nobody wants to lose games, but it's uncertain in what lineup the hosts will be. Milos Teodosic often and unexpectedly skips games whenever he doesn't feel well, but at least the positive aspect is that Yago dos Santos has returned, providing a realistic alternative at the point guard position.
On the other hand, this game is very significant for Olympiacos. They still have theoretical chances to finish within the top 4 and thus earn home-court advantage in the EuroLeague quarterfinals. Last week, they triumphed in Belgrade against Partizan, which on paper was a tougher game than the one they face now. Their defense shone in the fourth quarter, and amateur mistakes from Partizan's backcourt players were evident. If Teodosic plays, they won't be able to surprise the opponent in the same way this time.
All things considered, this is a match in which it's most realistic for Olympiacos to win by a single-digit margin. Crvena Zvezda won't surrender without a fight, and they will surely try to bid EuroLeague farewell to their fans in the best possible way. However, the significance of the match definitely gives the advantage to the visitors, who also have greater individual quality. Therefore, we expect the hosts to be close for most of the game, maybe even to have an advantage at some point, but ultimately, the guests from Piraeus should have the edge.
Monaco – Zalgiris: Drama is more than possible
Thanks to incredibly good performances recently and three consecutive victories, Zalgiris has remained in the race for a spot in the EuroLeague play-in. They need to secure wins in their remaining two matches, while Baskonia loses both of their games and Anadolu Efes is defeated at least once. The failures of the mentioned teams are not unrealistic at all, and the toughest part will probably be for Zalgiris to win this game against Monaco, especially considering that the hosts need a win to maintain their top 4 position and home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Zalgiris surely doesn't harbor illusions that they can cause much damage to the opponent in the paint this time. They will heavily rely on three-point shooting, where they still lead the EuroLeague with a 39.9% success rate. Keenan Evans is playing as one of the best players in the Europe, and Edmond Sumner is making constant progress. Zalgiris has given themselves a chance for the play-in, but they will need to secure big win on the road as well. A fortunate circumstance is that Monaco has played eight games in the last 18 days, and significant fatigue is noticeable. They definitely don't look as powerful as they did during January and February, and that's something the visitors will try to exploit to bring this match into drama. Andrea Trinchieri is one of the best European coaches in recent years, and you can expect him to have some tricks up his sleeve in such an important game. Perhaps not good enough to defeat Monaco at road, but definitely enough to stay close until the very end.
Alba Berlin – Partizan: No room for error
Partizan plays in a way that sometimes it seems like they don't need their opponents at all. Against Olympiacos, they played three phenomenal quarters and seemed to have everything under control. And then they started making turnovers possession after possession, giving the opponent easy points in transition. This has been a problem throughout the season, but the positive thing is the team's reaction shown in the ABA League. They secured a victory in a challenging away game against Buducnost, which is the best possible preparation for the duel in Berlin.
Despite all the poor results, Partizan still has mathematical chances to enter the top 10. But one of the prerequisites is to win both remaining games. Alba Berlin last triumphed in this competition in January. Their primary goal is developing young players, and they don't give too much importance to the results, although that doesn't prevent them from occasionally playing well. They possess a certain quality and rely heavily on their three-point shooting. That will be the case now as well. Partizan is rightfully the favorite, but it's somehow very difficult to imagine that the guests will win this by a double-digit margin. It's much more realistic for it to be by two or three-possession difference. And after all that has been seen, it wouldn't be unthinkable for them to lose, although it would be another huge disappointment for them.
Barcelona – Maccabi Tel Aviv: Battle in the paint will be decisive
Maccabi Tel Aviv has won six consecutive games in the EuroLeague, solidifying their seventh position on the table. They can't go lower because they have a better head-to-head record than Virtus, and to enter the top 6, they need to win both games while either Olympiacos or Fenerbahce lose both times. That's completely unrealistic, so the Israelis will probably use the remaining two matches to further prepare for the play-in. This will be a good test of their abilities as they face one of the best European teams.
Barcelona shows completely different faces when playing at home and when playing at road. They are 14-2 at home, and this is another game they should solve in their favor. Although Maccabi is in good form, the truth is they've had a more than favorable schedule. The visitors' defense is often below average, making it difficult to outplay a solid team like Barcelona. They will constantly seek solutions in the low post through Jan Vesely and Willy Hernangomez, and it will be tough for Josh Nebo and Jasiel Rivero to respond in the paint. Barcelona needs the remaining two wins to confirm their place in the top 4 and will be extremely motivated. When combined with their higher quality, it's realistic for them to win this by at least five points.
Valencia – Asvel: The visitors have been playing better than expected lately
Asvel has been by far the worst team in the EuroLeague this season alongside Alba Berlin, but they have improved their impression lately. Victories against Milano and Anadolu Efes have shown a desire to fight in every duel, and they have also played more than solidly away against Maccabi Tel Aviv and Olympiacos. They played 32 minutes in complete equality, indicating that they have the quality for a good game. All the mentioned teams are better than Valencia, so Asvel's approach will determine much.
Valencia must win this because their only chance for a place in the play-in is to triumph in both remaining games. They are also in a certain slump in form, and they definitely don't look as good as in the first half of the season. Back then, they played fantastically in defense, which is not the case now as they have many defensive lapses. The match is more important for the hosts, they have greater individual quality, they are capable of playing better defense, and that should lead to their victory, although the guests can compete if they are in the right mood. The most realistic outcome is probably that we won't see more than 160 points.
Fenerbahce – Anadolu Efes: Turkish derby of great importance
This game will decide a lot for both teams. Although low, Fenerbahce still has mathematical chances to finish within the top 4, and as long as that's the case, they will play for victory. Anadolu Efes has fought hard to reach the 10th position and they control their own destiny. If they win the remaining two games, they will secure a spot in the play-in, which would be a significant achievement considering all they've been through this season – from numerous injuries to coaching change and so on. This game will decide everything because in the last round, they play against Crvena Zvezda at home, where they shouldn't have any problems.
However, Fenerbahce is rightfully the favorite. They are in excellent offensive form, scoring over 100 points three times in their last four home games in this competition. Now they face a team with the worst defensive rating in the entire competition, suggesting that Fenerbahce could once again showcase their offensive prowess. Nigel Hayes-Davis broke the EuroLeague record with 50 points in the last round, Scottie Wilbekin and Tarik Biberovic have been shooting well lately, and Johnathan Motley controls everything in the paint. As much as Anadolu Efes has good momentum and played well at road against Baskonia, this is a different animal to beat. Fenerbahce recently comfortably defeated Barcelona at home and shouldn't have any problems this time either. A home team triumph without any drama in the final minutes is the most realistic outcome.
Bayern – Panathinaikos:
It would be a Greek tragedy if what everyone expects does not happen and that's an easy win for Panathinaikos. They are currently in second place in the EuroLeague and will surely remain there if they win both remaining matches. Since they play at home against Alba Berlin in the last round, it's clear that the decision will be made this week in Munich. In case Panathinaikos doesn't win both games, they could slip out of the top 4 as they have a 0-2 head-to-head record against Olympiacos, who poses a threat. This is a massive final for Ergin Ataman's team, and after surviving Virtus last week, it would be a real tragedy for them if they were defeated here.
Bayern is in a huge slump. They lost to Valencia, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Barcelona, and in all three games, they were in a subordinate position. And now they face a team that may be in the best form in the whole of Europe. The Bavarians always struggle when they encounter an opponent with strength in the paint, and that's definitely the case with Panathinaikos, who have Mathias Lessort and Dinos Mitoglou. It's expected that the visitors will constantly seek solutions in the low post, and with solid shooting from the perimeter, they should achieve their goal. Bayern has lost all realistic chances of qualifying for the play-in, and it's not impossible that head coach Pablo Laso rests some players who have often had injury problems. This would only further improve Panathinaikos's chances of securing an easy win.
Milano – Virtus:
The momentum is definitely on the home team's side Virtus finds themselves in a more than obvious deep hole. Not only have they suffered five consecutive losses in the EuroLeague, but in the last round of Serie A, they lost at home to Pistoia after leading by 15 at the start of the fourth quarter. In the first half of the season, they were the most pleasant surprise in all of Europe, but what we're seeing now is far from that. Recently, Daniel Hackett and Isaia Cordinier were injured, disrupting the hierarchy in the backcourt. Additionally, head coach Luca Banchi seems to have lost control a bit. However, the fortunate circumstance is that Virtus, with any win against Baskonia in the last round, will retain the eighth position and it's even possible they could do so even if they lose both remaining games.
Milano probably sealed their fate with the loss to Zalgiris in the previous round. If Partizan wins both remaining games (which is more than realistic), then Milano would have no theoretical chance of entering the play-in because they wouldn't be able to close any tiebreakers. The entire season has been full of ups and downs, although at times they've shown all the talent they possess, particularly evident against Fenerbahce and Monaco in the double round a few weeks ago. When you have players like Nikola Mirotic, Shavon Shields and Shabazz Napier, it's clear that you can defeat any opponent in Europe. Milano enters this match in better momentum, and it would be a surprise if Virtus were to break their crisis at the Mediolanum Forum. It might not be a convincing win, but a home win is the most likely outcome.
Real Madrid – Baskonia: It's not impossible for the impossible to happen
Although many believe that Baskonia currently has nothing to look for in Madrid, it's not entirely impossible for them to create a big surprise. Last week, they were humiliated at home by Anadolu Efes, compromising their position. Due to their terrible results lately, Baskonia will almost certainly fall out of the top 10 if they lose both remaining games because they have a worse head-to-head record against almost all teams currently on 14-18. This is imperative for them, and as difficult as the task may seem, they will strive for it. After all, Baskonia under Dusko Ivanovic has always been recognizable for its great character.
Last season, Baskonia had a 4-0 record against Real Madrid, which was almost unbelievable. For some reason, they enjoyed playing against the reigning EuroLeague champions. Players like Matt Costello often took advantage from the pick'n'pop against Walter Tavares, and that could be the tactic again now. The fact is that Real Madrid has no motivation except to harm Baskonia. They have secured the first place in the table, and the only thing that matters is that none of the top players get injured before the playoffs. Last week against Crvena Zvezda, head coach Chus Mateo decided to rest Facundo Campazzo, Gabriel Deck and Vincent Poirier. Younger players like Eli N'Diaye, Hugo Gonzalez and Carlos Alocen were given a chance, and that could easily be the case again this time.
Baskonia's big weapon is their three-point shooting. Except for Maik Kotsar, absolutely all players can have an excellent shooting night and hit many shots from beyond the arc. Markus Howard has had some historic games lately, and there's no doubt he'll be motivated. Not only him, but all the players because they were humiliated in the last round. Baskonia's reaction is almost certain, and if that's the case, and if Real Madrid is not in full strength, it's very possible not only to stay close until the end but also to have a chance for a big surprise.