Euroleague – Round 34
Monaco – Bayern: Confirmation of a successful regular season for the hosts
Monaco will have home-court advantage in the EuroLeague quarterfinals, and it remains to be seen whether they will finish third or fourth. This game will not make much difference because their opponent won't depend on their success here. Olympiacos and Fenerbahce will play their match a day later to determine who will finish fifth and sixth at the end of the regular season. So, for Monaco, this is a kind of celebration of a successful regular season. There is one more game against Bayern left, where they can make the best possible preparation for the upcoming crucial period.
Bayern has four consecutive losses in the EuroLeague, and that number will likely increase to five. This will mean they'll finish the regular season in 15th place, which is definitely not the result they had hoped for. However, knowing that this is just the beginning of the Pablo Laso era, it is assumed that good things will happen in the future. In any case, visiting Monaco is an opportunity for them to bid farewell to the EuroLeague in the best possible way. Both teams tend to play at a slower pace, and if they don't show too much disinterest in defense due to the lesser importance of the match, it's not realistic to expect more than 160 points combined.
Zalgiris – Real Madrid: There is never any relaxation in Kaunas
Zalgiris won't repeat last season's success when they qualified for the EuroLeague quarterfinals, but they can be more than satisfied with the second part of the season. Andrea Trinchieri has changed a lot, laying the foundation for the next season when the club from Kaunas will surely be much more dangerous. Under the leadership of the Italian expert, Zalgiris has a 7-1 record at home in the EuroLeague, with the only loss coming against Olympiacos in a game where the visitors shot fantastically from distance.
Although Zalgiris has no chance of qualifying for the play-in, they will take this game more than seriously. It's their last EuroLeague match of the season, and the arena will surely be filled to the last seat again. They're playing against the leaders, and there's no better way for them to bid farewell to their loyal fans. Real Madrid has been playing completely disinterested since clinching first place. They've lost three consecutive games in all competitions, and even the criticism from Mario Hezonja after the loss to Baskonia last week didn't wake up the team. It would be a surprise if their approach changes now. The guests undoubtedly have much higher individual quality, but the desire and energy of the hosts should be enough to keep them close until the very end and maybe even cause a little surprise.
Anadolu Efes – Crvena Zvezda: Anything but one scenario would be a first-rate shock
It seemed that all of Anadolu Efes' chances had vanished after their defeat against Asvel, but that wasn't the case. A combination of luck in the form of other results and their brilliant performances in the road games against Baskonia and Fenerbahce have led them to a point where they control their own destiny. If they defeat Crvena Zvezda at home, they will qualify for the play-in. Not only that, but they will also secure the ninth spot and play the first play-in match at home because they have a better head-to-head record than both Virtus and Baskonia. When you struggle so much to reach this situation, it's very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Anadolu Efes squanders it with a loss on their home court against one of the worst teams in the competition.
Moreover, it's a big question whether Crvena Zvezda will even be motivated to put up a strong resistance. It's widely known how much animosity exists between Crvena Zvezda and Partizan, and a victory for the red and whites here would only help their bitter rivals in reaching the 10th position and the play-in. That's something their fans wouldn't forgive, so this is one of those rare matches where a large number of Crvena Zvezda supporters would be happier if their beloved club suffers a defeat. Even if we disregard that, Anadolu Efes is simply on a much higher level in every aspect. Will Clyburn has been playing exceptionally well lately, Shane Larkin is consistently good, and Rodrigue Beaubois and Elijah Bryant can hit shots in crucial moments. This is a game the hosts will control from start to finish, and it depends on the approach of the visitors whether it will be a convincing double-digit win or around a 10-point difference. But it will be truly shocking if we see any kind of drama.
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Milano: Not an overly important game
Maccabi Tel Aviv has qualified for the play-in from the seventh position, and this game holds absolutely no significance for them. Head coach Oded Kattash might even consider resting some of their best players to ensure they are fully prepared for the upcoming play-in clash in just a few days. One minor difference is that this game will be held at the Belgrade Arena instead of the Aleksandar Nikolic Hall, where they have played all their home matches throughout the regular season. Wade Baldwin has been playing like one of the best players in the competition over the past month, and for a bigger step forward in the postseason, it will be necessary for Lorenzo Brown to find his form from last year. Perhaps this is the game where Brown could be given the freedom to regain his confidence.
Milano still has a theoretical chance to qualify for the play-in, but in reality, it's almost impossible. They need both Anadolu Efes and Partizan to lose games in which they are absolute favorites, while Milano must outperform Maccabi Tel Aviv. There's no doubt that everyone in the ranks of the reigning Italian champions is aware that their EuroLeague story ended the moment they lost to Zalgiris, and they are shifting all their focus to the Serie A. Given their minimal chances, they might be slightly more motivated than Maccabi, but if the hosts don't rest their best players, they will likely triumph easily. Simply put, Maccabi is superior in every basketball aspect this season.
Panathinaikos – Alba Berlin: The deciding game for the Greens
With road wins in Bologna and Munich, Panathinaikos has come within the smallest possible step of securing the second position in the EuroLeague. They will achieve this if they defeat Alba Berlin, who are by far the worst team in the entire competition. There couldn't be an easier task for Ergin Ataman's team, but he urges caution. Panathinaikos faced numerous problems in their domestic league against Kolossos on Monday, and the Turkish expert emphasized that his team would be defeated by Alba if they played as poorly as they did in Rhodes. His words are targeted and will surely awaken the Panathinaikos players enough to prevent any relaxation and not allow any drama because a defeat could see them slip to fifth place, which would be a tragedy.
Alba Berlin stands at 1-15 on the road in the EuroLeague this season. Their only victory away from Germany came against Asvel, the second-worst team. It's hard to imagine them complicating things for the hosts in any way. Panathinaikos is capable of playing much more aggressive defense, and on the other end of the court, they have a greater number of powerful individuals. This is a game that the hosts should control from start to finish and constantly increase their lead, which could at some point exceed a 20-point difference. In any case, a comfortable double-digit victory for Panathinaikos should not be brought into question.
Olympiacos – Fenerbahce: The battle for the fifth position
The winner of this game will almost certainly finish in fifth position. Olympiacos could climb to fourth place only if Barcelona wins their match, and Panathinaikos loses to Alba Berlin. The chances of such an outcome are almost non-existent. If things go as expected in the 34th round and the favorites triumph, then Monaco will be third, and Barcelona fourth. This means that the winner of this duel will face Barcelona in the EuroLeague quarterfinals, while the loser would have encounters with Monaco. Therefore, it's extremely difficult to predict the winner because we can't know which opponent Olympiacos and Fenerbahce prefer.
If everything were to be in the spirit of fair play, Olympiacos would have a little advantage. They have been playing excellent basketball in the last two months, and they are always particularly inspired in front of their fans in Piraeus. The red and whites boast one of the best defenses in the entire competition, and if they are inspired to win, they will only do so by slowing down the opponent's deadly offense. Fenerbahce relies much more on offense than defense, even though Sarunas Jasikevicius is known as a coach who emphasizes defense. Knowing all these factors, the most likely outcome is a lower number of points, possibly fewer than 160, as too many factors influence the winner of this game.
Partizan – Valencia: Farewell with win
Partizan had huge expectations for this season in the EuroLeague. The club didn't hide their desire to reach the Final Four, but it's now certain that won't happen. Poor results over the last three months have led to the Belgrade powerhouse not even making it to the play-in. Their only chance is to win here, while Anadolu Efes loses to Crvena Zvezda the day before, which is hard to imagine. However, that won't stop a large number of fans from coming to the Belgrade Arena to support head coach Zeljko Obradovic and the players. The season may not have been as successful as everyone hoped, but the support has never wavered.
This will be the greatest motivation for Partizan players to at least repay their fans a little. The opponent is ideal because Valencia played perhaps their worst match in EuroLeague history last week. They suffered a debacle at home against Asvel, and after that shameful defeat, head coach Alex Mumbru was sacked. It's evident that Valencia's players are eager for the season to end, and if they weren't motivated against Asvel when they still had a chance to qualify for the play-in, it's hard to imagine that being the case now when their chances are gone. The hosts should be in control from start to finish and ultimately secure a double-digit victory.
Virtus – Baskonia: The most important game of this week
The winner takes it all, the loser loses everything. That's the best description for this game between Virtus and Baskonia. The team that triumphs will finish in eighth place and will have two chances to qualify for the playoffs. First, they will play on neutral court in Belgrade against Maccabi Tel Aviv, and in case of defeat, they would have a second chance at home. On the other hand, a loss would drop them to 10th place because both teams have a worse head-to-head record than Anadolu Efes and would need to win two away games in the play-in to qualify. And that's more than an impossible mission, knowing that their first opponent would be Anadolu Efes.
Virtus enters this game with six consecutive losses in the EuroLeague. After a poor match in Milan last week, head coach Luca Banchi said the team hit rock bottom, and that may be the only positive thing. His players responded with a big win against Venezia in Serie A and are in decent spirits awaiting this match. They are aware that a win here can erase all the bad things that has happened in the past 40 days. Baskonia is also in a major crisis, although they somehow managed to outplay an uninterested Real Madrid in the previous round. However, they immediately suffered a heavy defeat against Valencia in Liga Endesa, indicating that the match against Los Blancos was more of an exception than the rule.
Earlier in the season, Virtus defeated Baskonia in Vitoria by double digits, and they are certainly in a better position. They can play much better defense than Baskonia, and they certainly have quality players like Gabriel Lundberg and Marco Belinelli to match up in shooting from a distance. Virtus has been a much better team throughout the season than Baskonia, and that wasn't a coincidence. We believe they will confirm that once again this time. Perhaps it won't be an easy win, and maybe it won't be decided until the last few minutes, but a win for the hosts is the most realistic scenario here.
Asvel – Barcelona: An upset is not impossible
Asvel has been playing very good lately. They've secured wins against Valencia, Anadolu Efes and Milano, while also leaving a good impression in losses to Maccabi Tel Aviv and Olympiacos. Pierric Poupet has done an excellent job as the new head coach, and it's clear that the players trust him. Since this is the last game of the season, there's no doubt they will be highly motivated to at least finish their participation in the EuroLeague on a positive note. That would definitely be a good sign heading into next year when they are expected to finally become a relevant factor.
Barcelona has had its fair share of ups and downs, and it's a fact that they are much better at home. They have secured a top 4 spot and home-court advantage in the EuroLeague quarterfinals, so this game doesn't hold too much significance for them. They could improve their position only if Monaco or Panathinaikos lose their respective matches. At the start of this duel, the Catalans will know where they stand, and if both Monaco and Panathinaikos triumph, it's not impossible to imagine head coach Roger Grimau resting some of the key players. All in all, it would be much less surprising if Asvel wins than if Barcelona wins convincingly by a double-digit margin.