Euroleague – Semifinal

Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce: One ball will decide everything
Very small details will determine which of these two teams will advance to the EuroLeague final. Looking at the starting fives, Panathinaikos will likely have the three best players on the court. These are Kendrick Nunn, Kostas Sloukas and Mathias Lessort. Their backcourt tandem (Nunn/Sloukas) will constantly attack Fenerbahce's weaker defender. Nick Calathes will be able to slow down either Nunn or Sloukas, but the other will have room to create, which is a big plus for Panathinaikos. Their problem is having much less depth than their opponent. Head coach Ergin Ataman has been known to shorten the rotation to seven or eight players, and there aren't many who can contribute from the bench.

For Fenerbahce, it is the complete opposite. Sarunas Jasikevicius has 11 players who are capable of destroying the opponent with their shooting. Tyler Dorsey, Tarik Biberovic, Marko Guduric, Nate Sestina and Sertac Sanli are bench players, but all have the capacity to hit three or more three-pointers. This is Fenerbahce's strength. Thanks to a large rotation, the Istanbul powerhouse can maintain a high defensive intensity and will try to exhaust Nunn and Sloukas as much as possible. Johnathan Motley will have a hard time outplaying Lessort under the basket, but Georgios Papagiannis could constantly pull him out of the paint and open up space for other players to cut. Nigel Hayes-Davis was selected to the All-EuroLeague First Team and could have an advantage in the low post against Dinos Mitoglou, but he will need to exploit this constantly. Scottie Wilbekin was outstanding in the quarterfinals against Monaco, which is encouraging for Fenerbahce.

When it comes down to it, the difference is truly minimal. Panathinaikos has greater individual talent, a more powerful starting five, physical strength under the basket, and a coach who always gets the most out of his team at the Final Four. Fenerbahce's advantage lies in their greater depth, less pressure, more numerous fans in the stands in Berlin, and a more dangerous three-point shot. From the eye test, Fenerbahce left a better impression in the EuroLeague quarterfinals. They played fantastically against Monaco, and that series was a real warrior battle where both teams played excellently on both ends of the court. Panathinaikos was almost eliminated by Maccabi Tel Aviv, who played their home games in Belgrade and were without their best player, Wade Baldwin, for most of the series. All this suggests that Fenerbahce might have a slight advantage this time, and the final shot could decide the winner.

Real Madrid – Olympiacos: Revenge is a dish best served cold
Twelve months ago, Sergio Llull killed the dreams of all Olympiacos fans. In a season where the red and whites from Piraeus played fantastically and were destined to win the EuroLeague, it didn't happen. They had a four-point lead (78:74) in the final minute of the EuroLeague final, but then Sergio Rodriguez hit a three-pointer, and Llull decided the champion with an unbelievable shot that will be talked about for decades. From that moment, Real Madrid became unstoppable. During the summer, they strengthened their roster by signing Facundo Campazzo and have dominated every competition so far. They won the Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey, swept Baskonia in the EuroLeague quarterfinals, and are the top favorites for the trophy in the Endesa League. Campazzo has played excellently all year, Dzanan Musa and Mario Hezonja have further developed in the Los Blancos jersey, while Guerschon Yabusele is always capable of contributing in various ways. The Sergio Rodriguez-Vincent Poirier connection has a few tricks up its sleeve, and veterans Rudy Fernandez and Llull cannot be underestimated this time either. The problem could be absence of Gabriel Deck who is very important piece in Chus Mateo system.

In contrast to Real Madrid, who continued on their championship path after winning the EuroLeague, Olympiacos has undergone significant changes. Their two best players (Kostas Sloukas and Sasha Vezenkov) left the club, and head coach Georgios Bartzokas had to reorganize the offense. Initially, Isaiah Canaan and Alec Peters benefited from hitting a large number of three-pointers, but as the season progressed, the red and whites changed their offensive style. During the season, Filip Petrusev and Moses Wright were signed, and coach Bartzokas began to insist on much more inside play. With Nikola Milutinov's return and Moustapha Fall's excellent performances, Olympiacos is capable of causing trouble for anyone under the basket. As a team, they play by far the best defense in Europe, as Barcelona felt on their skin. The perimeter is full of frenetic defenders. They are led by Thomas Walkup, but Kostas Papanikolaou, Nigel Williams-Goss and Shaq McKissic also have a lot to say. In the quarterfinals, they limited Barcelona to an average of 68 points, which is incredible considering the offensive potential of the Catalans. This will be the recipe again now.

Olympiacos is probably the only team in Europe whose centers can outplay Real Madrid's centers. Fall has the height to match Tavares, and Milutinov is a much better player than Poirier. Additionally, there is Wright as a third option that Los Blancos don't have. Olympiacos plays much better defense than Real Madrid and will surely have a way to slow them down as much as possible. Individual talent is absolutely on the side of the club from the Spanish capital, but that doesn't always have to be decisive. Olympiacos has been waiting for revenge for 12 months and will be ready to deliver it at a time when Real Madrid is having a perfect season. The key for Olympiacos will be to prevent Hezonja from getting a large number of good positions for three-pointers and to stop Musa from getting into his characteristic rhythm. Olympiacos doesn't have the offensive power to outplay Real Madrid in a high-scoring game, but if they keep them below 75 points, they are the favorites. In any case, it's hard to imagine the Greeks being demolished here or anything similar.