France – LFH Division 1, Women, Round 20

METZ HANDBALL vs LES NEPTUNES DE NANTES

MARCH 27, 2024 - 8PM

Attack duel

Metz, currently 2nd with 55 points, will face Nantes, 3rd with 49 points. Metz struggled immensely to defeat Dijon in a very lively match. This time, they will face Nantes, full of joy after securing their spot in the final four in Graz of the European League. This followed an outstanding collective performance and a 39-30 victory in the return match in Sola. Their offensive qualities always put opposing defenses to the test. However, they are up against the best defense in the championship.

Nantes' attack will manage to penetrate the Metz defense by consistently targeting Sarah Bouktit. However, the defensive mobility combined with effective deterrence tactics will diminish the quality of Neptune's transmissions. This will occasionally force them to rush the game, resulting in interceptions or goalkeeper saves that will immediately launch Chloé Bouquet into action. The top scorer of the championship is expected to continue her performance against a defense that may struggle with Marie Hélène Sajka, who is required to switch between attack and defense. Otherwise, Metz will consistently attack her during set plays.

Nantes is expected to exceed 30 goals again but may concede some goals on counterattacks. However, the match will mainly hinge on Nantes' ability to disrupt Metz's offense. Metz, operating around the strong moments of Kristina Jorgensen, possesses a wide offensive range. They can attack from the right and exploit players who struggle offensively, as well as create large movements to engage their backcourt players. Regardless, their quality is evident, and dribbling is extremely limited, fostering an attack where all players can touch the ball and position themselves well, tailored to their strengths.

However, Nantes may face difficulties in transition play. Metz, with Kristina Jorgensen, will consistently find Sarah Bouktit in a favorable position against Lena Grandveau or Hélène Fauske, the two defensive players.
With its diverse offensive arsenal, Metz is expected to surpass 36 goals and secure victory around 37-32 in an open match.

STRASBOURG ACHENHEIM TRUCHTERSHEIM HANDBALL VS ES BESANÇON FÉMININ

MARCH 27, 2024 - 8PM

A lack of cohesion?

Could the occasional glimpses of team cohesion on Achenheim's side make the difference against a team that sorely lacks it? This was clearly evident in the defeat of Besançon at Plan de Cuques. They started the match well with an exceptional Sabrina Zazai on the right wing but faltered as the game progressed. Showing little receptiveness to their coach, the decisions made seemed to lack significant thought. While there is some tactical reflection against the opponent, there is very little enthusiasm around a game plan. This is why the results have been extremely inconsistent since the beginning of the season. The absence of Alizée Frecon may have played a role, but it doesn't explain everything. There is a sense of detachment within the group from their coach and from each other, which does not bode well for the end of the season. But could this be enough for Strasbourg, who are on an endless streak of defeats, including a significant loss to Nantes (36-20)? They lamented the absence of Lilou Begon. Hopefully, they will return soon; otherwise, the Strasbourg attack quickly becomes stagnant.

And this is precisely what should happen against this mobile and skillful Besançon defense. They have genuine individual qualities but struggle to construct their collective work. However, the lack of danger from the Strasbourg backcourt will not highlight the opponents' difficulties. Only the wingers should still have free rein. Candice Maurin on the right wing and her counterpart on the other side will have to multiply their efforts if they hope to finally achieve the victory that has eluded them for so many months now. Strasbourg is therefore not expected to exceed 24 goals and will allow Sabrina Zazai to shine in open space.

Besançon is expected to win by more than 5 goals and leave Strasbourg to struggle with Toulon, the two bottom teams in the championship. It's impossible to differentiate between them at the moment.

ST AMAND HANDBALL – PORTE DU HAINAULT VS TOULON MÉTROPOLE VAR HANDBALL

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27, 2024 - 7:30 PM
Dead or alive?

The match of death! Or the match of life! Indeed, if we analyze it positively, Saint Amand could secure safety and obtain a 4-point lead over the first relegation spot. This would give them two safety nets until the end of the season. Therefore, survival should be considered achievable, making it easier for their ambitious leaders to plan for the next season.
But looking at it from Toulon's perspective, it's not yet a do-or-die match. Even with a loss, they should still remain ahead of Strasbourg in the head-to-head goal difference. However, continuously losing against teams of their caliber could complicate the end of the season. They just let Mérignac slip away with a one-goal defeat; will they also let Saint Amand escape in the standings?

On one hand, it's difficult to see how the Toulon defense could stop the assaults from the northern team. Whether it's Stelvia Pascoal's strength or Louison Boisorieux's speed, the central axis should still be attacked one-on-one. Lola Berrais, one of Toulon's three defenders, struggles to time her duels correctly against opponents. And since she's isolated like all her teammates, she has to fend for herself. She might not know where to direct the game. Therefore, the fear of losing on all sides puts her in difficulty even on her strong side. This is why most Toulon defenders defend flat, parallel to their zone, leading them to defend on their heels. Hence, they lose all their duels. Yet, it would only take collectively orienting principles. But this seems not to be done by their coach Joël Da Silva. Therefore, it's almost certain that the opposing duelists should thrive in this confrontation.

On the other hand, Saint Amand's lack of intent will give Toulon's game free rein. They should, therefore, see their backcourt scoring in specific tactical setups and timings.
Unfortunately for them, this won't compensate for their defensive weaknesses. Saint Amand is therefore expected to win by a score around 32 to 28.

MÉRIGNAC HANDBALL VS STELLA SAINT-MAUR HANDBALL

MARCH 27, 2024 - 8PM

Scorer's duel

Stella must be feeling regretful after their one-goal defeat against Nice, despite producing an finally pleasing offensive game. Their 28 goals are a testament to this. They will need to reproduce at least the same level of attack to secure a win against Mérignac. The latter, having secured a crucial victory of one goal against Toulon, now sits 10th with 30 points, just 3 points above the first relegation spot and 6 points behind their opponents tonight, Stella. They are still far behind in the relegation battle, so this match is within their reach to keep some hope alive for the end of their season. Conversely, for Mérignac, this is almost a definitive match to secure their survival. There's a significant stake in this match, pitting two teams fighting with all their heart. However, tactical mastery will also be crucial to secure victory this time.

A distance duel will take place, as the standout feature of both teams is the offensive impact of their leaders. On one hand, Nele Antonissen struck again last weekend, scoring 8 goals. Mérignac's center-back imposes herself every weekend through her duels and the quality of her ball deliveries. She is currently the top scorer of the championship with an average of 6.9 goals per match. Her signing with Plan de Cuques next year will undoubtedly bolster their team in the fight for survival, making it a significant transfer move to replace Manon Grimaud. Antonissen, a petite player, will challenge the Plotton sisters in defense with her speed, comparable to the game of Luc Steins. She is expected to lead Mérignac's attack to reach 28 goals. On the other hand, Mathilde Plotton, the third-best scorer of the championship with an average of 6.7 goals per match, is Stella's long-distance shooter. She needs to be set in motion but isn't afraid to shoot from 11 meters. She possesses a whip-like shot that allows her to shoot over the defense regularly, making it difficult for goalkeepers to predict her shots. She will be a significant threat in Stella's attack, especially with her move to Dijon next year, another significant transfer move. Last weekend, she received good support from Elise Delorme on her wing, who displayed her full range of shots.

Therefore, in this distance duel, everything will depend mainly on the impact around the two leaders. Which players will stand out? Mérignac's youth, with players like Lylou Borg on the backcourt or the very young left-back Melissa Chantelly, should complement the work of their center-back and leader, Nele Antonissen.

We predict a very tight match with Mérignac clinching victory by less than 3 goals. However, we believe that this small margin will be controlled by the Bordeaux team as the match progresses.

OGC NICE CÔTE D’AZUR HANDBALL VS PM CHAMBRAY TOURAINE HANDBALL

MARCH 27, 2024 - 8:30

The importance of a goalkipper? You have 4 hours ...

Chambray, with only the championship to focus on now, should be able to finish the season more smoothly. Having faced a lot of fatigue from playing every three days, they've also dealt with numerous injuries. Another one is expected this Wednesday, with Manon Houette, the former French international on the left wing, likely to be absent. However, she has been effectively replaced by Laugane Pina, as evidenced by her 5 goals last weekend. They now travel to Nice, but the journey to the French Riviera promises to be challenging and fraught with obstacles. Despite the difficulty and a strong performance against the bottom team, Nice secured a one-goal victory against Stella. However, their momentum remains intact, making it difficult to predict the outcome of this encounter.

One of Nice's weaknesses lies in the quality of their goalkeepers. Marija Golic can occasionally excel, but her performance is often inconsistent, with fluctuating standards of saves. The challenge for their coach, Clément Alcacer, is not knowing when and where she will perform. She is quite unpredictable, capable of making relevant saves both up close and from a distance or on the wings, depending on her momentum. It's therefore difficult to build a defensive strategy around her. However, their current defensive approach is clear: adding pressure to the opponent with plenty of support. This precise strategy, coupled with their ability to transition quickly and exploit additional attacking opportunities, makes their gameplay very effective. When executed efficiently, it can make the difference against most teams in the championship. However, they must be cautious not to play at excessive speed, especially against Chambray, whose defensive qualities are undeniable. It's better to attempt to attack them before they can organize themselves defensively, as they are vulnerable when isolated. During such moments, Adriana Holejova, the diminutive Slovakian back player, can utilize her duel-winning abilities.

However, once organized, Nice may struggle to find solutions. Their compact defense is particularly vulnerable against opponents with superior physical strength, which could benefit players like Marie Fall on the inside.

Therefore, if Marija Golic manages to exceed a 30% save rate, we can expect an impressive performance from Nice thanks to their fast-paced style of play. Otherwise, Chambray is likely to win by a narrow margin, around 26-24. The outcome hinges on the performance of this unpredictable goalkeeper.

PARIS 92 VS HANDBALL PLAN DE CUQUES

MARCH 27, 2024 - 8:30 PM

Large space

It's time for fast-paced action. Speed is essential for both teams. Plan de Cuques, in particular, used it extensively to secure a victory against Besançon with a score of 30-27. The same can be said for Paris, where 40% of their goals in their victory against Chambray were scored in open space. But does Plan de Cuques have the ambition to pursue the 5th place, which may lead to a wild card for Europe? It's uncertain because the club and the team aren't sufficiently equipped to compete in all competitions. Yet, they are only 3 points away from that position.

On both sides, fast-paced play revolves around their playmakers. On one hand, there's Meline Nocandy, and on the other, Manon Grimaud. They both manage to maintain effective control and reading at full speed. For the Parisian center-back, the game often revolves around her due to her speed and full-speed duels. For Manon, the Marseillaise center-back, it's more about anticipation, linked to wingers running around her. Her reading of the game regularly leads her to make the right choices.

For Paris, fast play is also well-exploited by Deborah Lassource. Rumored to be heading to Romania next year, she takes over the fast-paced game to support Meline Nocandy. Additionally, the speed of Adja Ouattara allows her to also be at the forefront quickly. Her physical power should be utilized against the defensive deficit of the Provence defense.
Paris is therefore expected to win with a score around 30-26. Plan de Cuques should put up a fight, as will Romane Kromoska. This petite Ukrainian back player outmaneuvers her opponents with quality directional changes. However, it's unlikely to be enough against the physical power of Paris.

BREST BRETAGNE HANDBALL VS JDA BOURGOGNE DIJON HANDBALL

MARCH 27, 2024 - 8PM

Warning

Brest must be cautious not to lose all their ambitions and hopes in a single week. It's a pivotal week to finish the year with a title. Unfortunately, they've just been caught off guard in the Champions League and are therefore eliminated just before the quarter-finals. Despite winning by two goals away, they suffered a 31-26 defeat at home. As a result, they won't see the Final Four like last year. They must ensure that this disappointment doesn't lead to further setbacks. After the Champions League, they face Dijon to maintain their lead in the Butagaz Énergie League. Then, on Saturday at 5 p.m., they face Metz in the French Cup semi-finals. Brest's coach, Pablo Morel, has his work cut out to maintain this positive momentum and results since the beginning of the year. Everything seems to be going well for now; let's hope it stays that way for Brittany.
For this, they face Dijon first. Dijon, who fought hard and even led throughout the match against Metz, unfortunately succumbed by 3 goals in the end. They must be both happy to have played such a quality match but sad about the outcome they couldn't control. Now, they travel to face another top team in the championship. While it may seem like the right time to play them this week, when prioritizing is not easy, it's clear that Brest should get the job done. Their bench depth allows them to maintain high-quality performance.

Therefore, we believe that by prioritizing the league, Pablo Morel's team should win against Dijon on Wednesday, albeit in a challenging match. Their experience will make the difference, leading them to victory by a margin of 5 goals. However, we expect them to falter in the French Cup on Saturday. The energy they will have expended in six days is likely to take its toll on Saturday.