France - LNH Proligue, Playoff

FRONTIGNAN THAU HANDBALL VS PONTAULT-COMBAULT HANDBALL 21/05/ 2024 - 8PM

All in the center
For this first leg match of the playoffs, Frontignan, who finished 6th, hosts Pontault, who finished 3rd with 37 points. Will logic prevail? Be cautious because Frontignan has beaten the suburban team twice this year, exceeding 37 goals each time. Therefore, like any home-and-away match, it will be a different and challenging context.
The Hérault team boasts the league's top scorer. Nathy Camara ended the season with 200 goals and an average of 7.4 goals per match. He will be one to watch this Tuesday. Another factor to consider is that Pontault did not play on the last matchday. They will have had 10 days to prepare properly without it being too long and without losing their rhythm. Thus, it will likely be a close match before the return leg where every goal counts. Just ask Montpellier!

But here's what's likely to happen: Pontault-Combault will attack aggressively in the center of Frontignan's defense. Strong plays from Portuguese center Hugo Lima will flatten the defense to set up his sharpshooting backs. Lilian Pasquet and Baptiste Barthélémy should capitalize on this setup to comfortably shoot from afar against a defense without a blocker. Then, Kevin Taufond, the firebrand, will use his explosiveness to trouble Anthony Laurens, the defender of this team. Despite being the soul of the club due to his aggressiveness and toughness, Laurens also lacks the necessary agility and is likely to be pierced. Indeed, Kevin Mesnard in their goal will make some exploits up close but will be beaten from long range, where he struggles the most to read opponents' shots.

Pontault, with its organized attack and fast play, will likely exceed 35 goals in this match. But what about the other side facing one of the best attacks in the league?

The triangle play around Adria Leon, Frontignan's pivot, will be in the spotlight. However, defensive stability will prevail over their opponents unless fast play prevents Aurélien Padolus, the best defender in Proligue, from entering the game. Padolus stabilizes his defense, and when he's present, few teams dare to attack because he rarely loses his duels.
Of course, there will be a tactical game between the two matches. Guillaume Saurina, the coach, will likely have a plan to block this transition to two pivots. But Frontignan knows how to stay composed and take their time to find the best solution. Therefore, we expect a small surprise with Pontault-Combault's victory, but Frontignan should manage the gap in this first match and not panic as they do every weekend. The score could be around 35-32. Anything will be possible in the return leg three days later.


JS CHERBOURGEOISE MANCHE HB VS SÉLESTAT ALSACE HANDBALL 21/05/ 2024 - 8:30 PM

Father or son?
Here is an incredibly tight contest. It is difficult to predict the winner of this home-and-away duel. A place in the Final Four in Sélestat is at stake. The Alsatians are obviously hoping to play for promotion to the Starligue and the Proligue title at home. But will they have that chance? To achieve this, they need to overcome Cherbourg. Even during the regular season, they couldn't be separated, each winning one match.

For the record, this duel is also a family affair. Laurent Busselier is the coach of Sélestat, and he will be facing his son, who plays right back for Cherbourg. So, will it be the father who tactically manages to make the difference with his men, or will it be the son with his firepower and good relations with the pivot who will cause his opponents to falter on the 40x20 court? Interesting indeed, and there's no doubt that there will be lively family dinners in the future. We assume the father would love to have his son in the squad given the impact he can have on the game. However, they've likely avoided this situation because it's not easy to manage within a group. But it's a match within the match.

There will also be the duel between Tom Vinatier, who finished as the third-best scorer with 157 goals and an average of 5.8 goals per match, and Nicolas Gauthier, the best goalkeeper in Proligue. He totals 305 saves, averaging 11.3 saves per match. Both are in great form right now. The Alsatian center back is currently doing everything for his team.
But as we think, it's mostly the X-factors that will make the difference in these playoffs.

For Cherbourg, we think it will be the young left back Dayann Lopez. He's a streaky player, if you will. In a few minutes, he can turn the game around. If he's successful, he can score more than 4 goals in a row.
On Sélestat's side, it will likely be Pierre Weber. The backup pivot is certainly much weaker defensively than Téo Egermann but much more comfortable in attack. Given the depth of the opposing defense, they will need an anchor point inside. Without this, Cherbourg should win easily as they will control the backs either through their impact or their goalkeeper's saves. Pierre Weber could therefore be one of his team's top scorers if the number one attacker struggles again.

That's why we think Cherbourg should win this first leg. Their goalkeeper Nicolas Gauthier will make the difference. The Sélestat goalkeepers are not bad but are less complete. They are far too weak from a distance, which will leave the door open for long-distance shots from Yanis Busselier. They should therefore win with a score around 29-25, a significant lead before the return leg.