France - LNH Proligue, Round 20

ANGERS SCO HANDBALL VS JS CHERBOURGEOISE MANCHE HB
01/03/2024 - 8:30 P.M.

Rebellion?
Angers had a one-week break to try to reorganize and regain momentum. The past two weeks must have been intense around Issam Tej. Unwavering commitment was likely demanded to achieve their goals. Now, it's time for this matchup against Cherbourg. They are coming off three consecutive victories, including a notable one against Caen in the Normandy derby. But what will happen this weekend? Will Angers finally rebel? We eagerly await to find out.
In attack, Issam Tej's coaching project for Angers could disrupt Cherbourg's fluidity of play. By pushing back Nicolas Bono or moving him out of his sector, his impact on the game should be diminished. This 1-5 formation should force the Cherbourg backcourt to engage in isolated duels or two-man relationships with pivots. While Yanis Busselier may struggle to get into motion, he can exploit his relational qualities with the pivot. Paul-Louis Guiraudou should position himself to gain an advantage over Swan Lemarié, leaving Yanis to attract the third defender and open up opportunities for his pivot. The power dynamics will heavily favor the Cherbourg pivot.
Cherbourg is expected to face difficulties offensively but may find some solutions. Will it be enough? It will depend on their defense. They should manage to contain Fares Ghoul inside through their tactical choices but may leave openings for long- range shots. Corentin Boe could finally make a difference for Angers and help his teammates create offensive opportunities. Currently, their inside-focused play poses problems due to the lack of accuracy in long-range shooting. Let's hope this changes for Angers. If so, we could see another victory for Angers.
As for the prediction, we're leaning towards a long shot with Angers winning 28-26.


BILLERE HANDBALL PAU PYRÉNÉES VS TREMBLAY-EN-FRANCE HANDBALL – 01/03/2024 - 8:30 P.M.

Too many dangers
Billere, who recently stumbled with a draw at home, now hosts the league leaders, Tremblay-en-France, who arrive in Pau with the same determination to crush everything in their path. Cournon bore the brunt of their onslaught last weekend with a comprehensive 35-20 defeat.
While shooters like Rémi Commentes may find some long-range shooting opportunities, Tremblay's defensive mastery should outweigh the efforts of the opposing shooters. The real weakness, we would say, lies in controlling the pivots and slips behind the number twos. Or in finding high-quality shooters to score against Uelington Fereira, Tremblay's exclusive defender who excels at blocking shots. Unfortunately, Billere lacks sufficient long-range firepower to capitalize on this tactical choice.
And defensively, what can they do to stop Tremblay's offense? When it's not one player, it's another who's performing. This time, a young player who hadn't yet had playing time stepped up. Ethan Fabien Laurent, the left winger, scored 7 goals last weekend to give the league's top scorer, Jean Pierre Dupoux, a rest. So, what tactical choice should be made against this offensive juggernaut? They'll need to construct a tactical plan for every matchup. Despite the intensity and aggression Billere may bring, it likely won't be enough. This time, the solution may lie on the interior. Thus, Tiago Rocha is expected to take advantage of this matchup as the top scorer for his team.

There's no doubt once again about Tremblay's victory. They should surpass 35 goals again while keeping Billere to less than 30 goals.


CAEN HANDBALL VS FRONTIGNAN THAU HANDBALL
01/03/2024 - 8:30 P.M.

The chef's surprise?
Well, here's a big odds to play. Caen, second to last, faces Frontignan, in 6th place. Yet, there seems to be a reversal of trajectories and dynamics. Even though Caen lost again in the Normandy derby against Cherbourg, their game appears to be more structured and precise. Meanwhile, Frontignan secured a win against Sarrebourg, but with great difficulty. It was their first victory in 4 matches. So, why might it be like this?
Certainly, it could be due to Frontignan's defensive weakness. The central axis of their defense is lacking. They struggle both technically in duels and in impact against strong shooters. Allan Villeminot should thus be able to express his wrist quality without much interference from the opposing defenders, as well as in the pivot play. One of Frontignan's major defensive weaknesses lies here. In their defensive sequences, their movements don't allow them to move ahead but only to defend behind the pivot. So, facing technically adept or very physical pivots often poses difficulties for them. And now, we have a technically adept pivot in Jordan Allais. He knows how to position himself, create space, and anticipate the game to find himself in favorable positions. Therefore, he should be one of the top scorers for his team and help his teammates score more than 30 goals.
This is necessary against Frontignan. Their speed of play and duel players like Romain Tesio challenge most opposing defenses. Tesio, the right back trained in Nîmes, throws himself 2000% into his duels. While this doesn't necessarily result in ball distribution, it often leads to individual solutions. However, this can be effective against defenders weak in duels. Tesio is likely to face off against Allan Villeminot in duels and should gain the upper hand, as Villeminot plays more tactically than engaging in strong physical battles. He's more about self-preservation, being primarily an attacker. So, Frontignan should also score more than 30 goals once again.
But if Caen manages to handle the relationship with Adria Leon, the Spanish pivot on the opposing side, a small window of opportunity should open up. And Caen should seize it, especially as they play once again in their magnificent new sports palace. Supported by a mass of fans, victory should be within reach with a slight margin at the end. They would then climb back to equal points with Angers. Unless...


HANDBALL CLUB COURNON D’AUVERGNE VS GRAND BESANÇON DOUBS HANDBAL – 01/03/2024 - 8:30 P.M.

Back to basics
A match where it won't be easy to place a bet. Besançon, still inconsistent in their performance, travels to Cournon, which is struggling in the beginning of 2024. Indeed, they have dropped to thirteenth place with 4 losses in their last five matches. And their recent defeat against Tremblay with only 20 goals scored won't reassure them. Meanwhile, Frontignan delivered a solid performance but narrowly failed at Istres. So, how to differentiate between them?
Well, Besançon suffers from the injury of Lucas Jametal, which is detrimental to their offensive game. He brings his commitment and unwavering desire to create danger towards the goal. Consequently, their play becomes very lateral again. And this plays into Cournon's hands. No need for big movements. It's better to attack their central sector head-on. The difference should be made there. Cournon should manage to control their opponents' sequences through their tactical knowledge and understanding of this level. Besançon is likely to be limited to only 26 goals.
But they'll need their offense to score more goals. As mentioned earlier, they only scored 20 goals last Friday. However, the weaknesses in defense against the pivot should allow room for Robin Dourte. The towering Auvergne pivot should gain positions due to his stature. Even if he lacks leg strength to hold his positions, it should be enough against Besançon. Indeed, they really struggle to make the efforts to disrupt the pivot's position gains. Robin should thus be the top scorer for his team, if not stopped by Dmitrii Kholmov, who is in great form at the moment.
The match should be tight and revolve around 26 goals. We envision a final gap in favor of Cournon by about two goals.


MASSY ESSONNE HB VS PONTAULT-COMBAULT HANDBALL 01/03/2024 - 8:30 P.M.

A fine Parisian derby
A Parisian derby like we love them. They have been facing each other for years, both in the championship and in friendly matches. Almost 4 times a year, then. And it's time to set the table again. Massy is in good form at the moment with 2 wins, 1 draw, and two defeats in their last 5 matches. They are hosting Pontault, who had a fine performance with their one- goal victory against Sélestat in the match for the second place. So, this match is expected to be highly contested once again. Parisian derbies always have a special flavor and results that are just as surprising. So why not another surprise this Friday?
The key to beating Pontault-Combault lies in defense. And for that, it's necessary to make the effort but also minimize turnovers and extend their attacking playtime as much as possible. And for this, we think highly of Massy's qualities. They put in the effort, which comes from impeccable team cohesion. Each player wants to make the effort for their teammates. Consequently, they rarely concede goals on fast breaks or due to problems with their defensive organization. Furthermore, their lengthy attacks allow for anticipating the opposition's retreat in a coherent manner. The players don't opt for first-intention plays and seek to move the opposing defense before looking for openings. Massy's wide gameplay will lead to finding solutions on the wings, often through Antoine Conta, who should be one of their top scorers this Friday. This style of play is crucial against Pontault to avoid Aurelien Padolus, the league's best defender.
The match should not see more than 30 goals. Massy could pull off an upset in a closely fought match. The Massy group will once again prove its strength and operational cohesion. It's a culture in this club for years, knowing how to fight with the means they have. Some clubs like Villeurbanne should certainly have taken inspiration from them.


NANCY HANDBALL VS ISTRES PROVENCE HANDBALL
01/03/2024 - 8 P.M.

In free fall
The descent into hell continues for Nancy. This is their fifth defeat in five matches against a direct rival for survival. Consequently, their focus has shifted from playoffs aspirations to concerns about avoiding relegation. They now have only a 7- point cushion above the relegation zone, which, although still comfortable, offers little reassurance given their current form. Despite having a quality squad, the team's cohesion seems to be unraveling, and internal issues remain elusive to outsiders. Hosting Istres will not provide an easy opportunity for a turnaround, especially considering Istres' narrow victory against Besançon last Friday. Istres' situation is equally perplexing—they struggle to build comfortable leads and often find themselves in precarious positions, frequently ending matches in nail-biting fashion. This unpredictability could make the upcoming match against Nancy challenging.
Istres' defense is expected to assert dominance against Nancy's lack of continuity and movement. Conceding only 23 goals against Valence, they are unlikely to allow more than 25 goals. Vincent Gérard, Istres' new goalkeeper, showcased his talent with 10 saves last weekend, a performance that is likely to improve as he becomes more familiar with his teammates. This could potentially mark a fitting conclusion to his distinguished career, should Istres secure promotion to the Starligue. In attack, Geoffroy Carabasse is expected to play a pivotal role for Istres. Despite facing competition from Edgar Dentz in the past, Carabasse now has the opportunity to shine as Istres' primary offensive threat. Istres' offensive tactics, which involve utilizing the pivot in conjunction with the backcourt players, should provide ample opportunities against Nancy's defense, which lacks cohesion and support. Istres is anticipated to exceed 30 goals against Nancy.
Therefore, we expect Istres to secure a victory by a margin of 5 goals, despite the challenge of breaking away during the match. This victory could propel Istres back into second place in the standings by Friday.



SÉLESTAT ALSACE HANDBALL VS VALENCE HANDBALL
01/03/24 - 8:30 P.M.

The right path
Sélestat must have had a headache for 7 days following their unfortunate defeat against Pontault. They fell short by just one goal. Now, they face Valence, who were impressive in their 30-23 victory against Nancy. Despite Nancy's defensive struggles, allowing 30 goals against them is a significant achievement. Valence clearly surprised many with their performance. Now, it's time for a new challenge. While there may not be any surprises on paper, Valence could still catch us off guard again.
This could primarily stem from their defense. Valence, who put a lot of heart into helping each other out, always impose an additional pass. Therefore, the key is to free up space on the wings to capitalize on the openings created. Their project is clear in their desire to focus on density. Tom Vinatier, the standout center for Sélestat at the moment, should provide the extra pass this time. Tanguy Thomas and Steven Georges should thrive on the wings and find plenty of opportunities. However, the absence of Hugo Pimenta, the right back, remains detrimental. Sélestat suffered two defeats in his absence in the last two matches and barely managed a miraculous draw against Istres previously. However, this trend is unlikely to continue.
On the other side of the field, the defensive objective remains the same: to focus on defensive density. However, Valence's movements are broader, requiring better understanding to anticipate their various strengths. These movements often revolve around Bilal ben Brahim, who consistently proves himself as one of the league's top pivots, as evidenced by his five goals last Friday. However, Sélestat's relatively deep defense should mitigate his impact to some extent.
It's worth noting that Malo Lignieres is starting to replace Baptiste Butto on Valence's left wing. Their parents must be proud to see their children playing across different leagues, each progressing and growing with every game. In the context of Sélestat's defensive strategy, Malo should find plenty of space and opportunities for shots. He could once again be one of the top scorers for his team. However, it may not be enough to secure a victory against Sélestat.
We believe Sélestat should emerge victorious with a scoreline around 30-25.