France - LNH Proligue, Round 21

GRAND BESANÇON DOUBS HANDBALL VS ANGERS SCO HANDBALL (08/03/24 CET 19:30)

The descent into hell continues
Angers is indeed continuing its descent into hell. And not just that. A massive defeat, 25-37 against Cherbourg. They didn't stand a chance. 17 turnovers in a match don't lead to much success. It's now been 12 matches without a win. They are now level on points with second-to-last Caen. Relegation is becoming increasingly imminent. Even though rumors are swirling in the corridors that there won't be any relegation at the end of the year. With Villeurbanne already relegated, this will pave the way for Dreux Vernouillet to be promoted. But no other club would have the means to meet the minimum requirements set by the LNH. Perhaps that's why Angers has agreed again to let their right back Ahmed Abdelhak return to play for the remainder of the season in Qatar. Filip Vucelic is now alone in the right back position. And that's to face a strong Besançon team who have just won by two goals against Cournon. The premature return of Lucas Jametal has greatly boosted their offensive impact. So, let's move on to this match, which is logically easy to predict at first glance. But Besançon's inconsistency is always worrying.
However, Christophe Viennet and his team should get the job done. Indeed, their defensive weaknesses might be slightly exposed by Fares Ghoul, but they will tighten up. This strategy is effective against Angers. The lack of long-range penetration, aside from Corentin Boe on the Angers side, makes them feel like they're up against a wall. Few duels won also mean that the game is centralized and tends to go around in circles. Besançon will therefore tighten their ranks and wait for Angers' turnovers to exploit counterattacks. And in this sector, Mathis Beauchef, the best player, should once again be the top scorer for his team and surpass 10 goals.
We expect a five-goal victory for Besançon with over 30 goals scored thanks to counterattacks.


JS CHERBOURGEOISE MANCHE HB VS NANCY HANDBALL (08/03/24 CET 19:30)

Two opposing dynamics
Cherbourg, who have won 4 out of their last 5 matches, face Nancy, who have lost their last 5 matches. It's fair to say that the dynamics are completely opposite. However, Nancy is coming off a better performance against Istres. Their attack has once again clicked. So, we have two teams with contrasting offensive styles—one where the ball lives, and players play for each other, and the other with a rather static game where players seem to play for their statistics rather than collective success. This sets up a true clash of styles, which should naturally favor Cherbourg, especially on their home turf.
Nicolas Bono, the Cherbourg center-back, should continue to lead his team's game with quality. He excels in his connections and is regularly a decisive passer. There is no doubt that he will work wonders and should provide plenty of opportunities for his pivot regularly. Therefore, Paul-Louis Guiraudou should continue to find many shooting solutions. His ability to gain position over the opposition is very impactful and offers him many opportunities. But against Nancy, it's especially Nicolas Bono who should single-handedly break through the Nancy defense with his duels. The Nancy defense always struggles to move and support each other. However, caution is advised due to the long-term injury to Cherbourg's starting left-back, Andry Goujon, who collapsed against Angers. We wish him a speedy recovery and hope he returns soon to showcase his improving skills. On the other hand, it's Thomas Loppy, the Cherbourg left-back, and Nicolas Gauthier, the goalkeeper, who should thwart the Nancy game. Even if Yann Ducreux remembers his younger years with his 8 goals against Istres, Nancy's lack of movement should result in many mistakes forced by Thomas Loppy, the defensive specialist.
Nicolas Gauthier, Cherbourg's goalkeeper with an average of 11 saves per match, should help his team win comfortably by 6 to 8 goals. Nancy is expected to be capped at 25 goals.


FRONTIGNAN THAU HANDBALL VS HANDBALL CLUB COURNON D’AUVERGNE (08/03/24 CET 19:30)

Forward projection
Two struggling teams since the restart are facing each other. Frontignan has now dropped to 6th place with 19 points. Moreover, they have only managed to secure one victory in their last five matches. On the other hand, Cournon isn't faring any better after their home defeat against Besançon. Despite being ahead at halftime, they succumbed to Lucas Jametal's assaults to ultimately lose by 2 goals. Their negative spiral continues with a fourth consecutive defeat. It is high time for one of the two teams to bounce back, and of course, it's preferable to do so at home. The support of the fans at Ferrari should aid Frontignan in seeking victory.
However, to achieve this against Cournon, winning duels is essential. Alexandre Ayhan, who orchestrates the game well, will need to take on more personal responsibilities. We believe this match could be a turning point for him. They should finally surpass 5 goals again against the defensive weaknesses of their opponents in duels.
But the real game-changer will unfold on the other side of the field. Why do we say this? Simply because the Frontignan defense, in collaboration with Kevin Mesnard in goal, should thwart some of the Auvergne's attacks to obtain quick solutions on fast breaks. The regular turnovers from Marjan Kolev's players should lead to many counterattacks. Speedsters Maxime Isnard on the right wing and Nathy Camara on the left wing should particularly shine in this match. Together, they could contribute to 30% or more of their team's goals. Certainly, Laurent Lagier Pitre, who scored 9 goals last weekend, will continue to showcase his power. However, Kevin Mesnard's repeated saves will deal a blow to the opponents. The attack will be impacted, playing with less fluidity, thereby allowing Lucas Pellegrin's teammates to intercept balls. The rest, as they say, is history.
Therefore, we anticipate a victory for Frontignan with a scoreline around 35-30.


ISTRES PROVENCE HANDBALL VS SARREBOURG MOSELLE SUD HANDBALL (08/03/24 CET 19:00)

Search for seconds
Istres, who are on an excellent streak, are facing Sarrebourg. With 4 wins in 5 matches for the former and 3 wins in 5 matches for the latter, Sarrebourg have rejuvenated themselves last weekend with their customary match against Villeurbanne. It was a good period for recovery while maintaining their positive momentum. However, they are still facing a tough opponent who is gradually closing in on the second spot. While it may not entirely serve their purpose, as everything will ultimately be decided in the playoffs, it certainly boosts confidence.
Istres' offensive game is becoming increasingly polished. The distribution of goals is starting to spread across all positions, which wasn't the case previously. Their movement brings the shooters into good positions in the center of the opposing defense. Teams have chosen not to spread out for now, but this might be a mistake. Sarrebourg should do so and thus leave the pivot, Geoffroy Carabasse, a bit more open. He, who is facing his former team, should therefore, if he manages to get past the goalkeeper who knows him very well, trouble his former teammates.
On the other side of the field, Louis Despreaux might for once find himself in difficulty against a defense that tries to impact every shooter. Sarrebourg will need to play wider and seek decisions on the wings. However, Vincent Gérard should take care of them and gradually extinguish their threat as the game progresses.
There is little doubt regarding Istres' victory against a valiant Sarrebourg team. The scoreline could be around 32-28.


PONTAULT-COMBAULT HANDBALL VS CAEN HANDBALL (08/03/24 CET 19:30)

Back home
Sebastien Quintallet returns to the grounds that propelled him as a coach. He knows the Roger Boisrame arena like the back of his hand and will try to lead his new team, Caen, to victory. Since taking over the team in January, he has secured 2 wins in 4 matches, which has been beneficial for his club, bringing them level with Angers on points in the battle for survival, with both teams now on 10 points each. But will his tactical expertise be enough against the second-placed team, Pontault, who have secured 4 consecutive victories, including a hard-fought win against Massy by two goals in the Parisian derby?
Considering the defensive quality of Guillaume Saurina's men, we do not think this will be possible. While Caen's dynamic gameplay allows their back players to find their rhythm again, Pontault's defensive depth should never leave shooters with easy shooting opportunities. This will make the task easier for their goalkeeper. However, the absence of their two starting goalkeepers, Robin Cantegrel and Sven Horvat, should still allow Caen to score more than 28 goals. But the defense will primarily aim to recover balls and launch their arrows in counter-attacks. Alex Moran should once again thrive in open spaces, as his speed allows him to win duels against goalkeepers. The weakness in Caen's transition defense, as they are forced to bring out their pivot Jordan Allais for better defensive balance, will cause problems in the axis of transition and distribution. Thomas Toupance, through his movement in the axis, could exploit his duel quality against isolated defenders.
Furthermore, with rejuvenated left-handers, especially Genesis Bouity with 9 goals, the balance of the game has returned. The emphasis on the left side has decreased, allowing everyone to find more space. The scoring in set attacks should therefore be distributed, making it difficult for Sebastien Quintallet to find the key.
Therefore, we expect a victory for Pontault-Combault with a scoreline around 33-30.


SÉLESTAT ALSACE HANDBALL VS TREMBLAY-EN-FRANCE HANDBALL (08/03/24 CET 19:30)

In free fall
The trap match could have been last week, and indeed it was, but Tremblay still managed to pull off a one-goal victory against Billere. It was a tough battle, but the confidence remains high among the Tremblay players because to become champions, they must learn to master and win in such challenging situations, and they did just that. However, they now face former participants in the Liqui Moly Starligue. Despite their inconsistency, these young Selestat players know how to shine. So, it's important to be wary of a tough match ahead. Can the passion of the Selestat players outweigh the experience of the Tremblay team? We're eager to find out, but it promises to be a thrilling goal fest.
As usual, Tom Vinatier, the center-back for Selestat, should score more than 6 goals. He excels in surprising shots close to defenders and in explosive duels, which should trouble players like Uelington Da Silva. With the return of Hugo Pimenta's pirouettes, the Selestat attack should be successful against the rather defensive Tremblay side. Now, it's up to them to maintain a high shooting percentage to secure the win. The outcome will largely depend on this and their ability to get past Cyril Dumoulin.
On the other hand, weaknesses in chaining movements to disrupt long-distance shooters should open the doors for Nicolas Claire and Quentin Colman. Their movements and sequences should jeopardize the defenders' reading of the game. Their strategy is challenging to decipher because the danger comes from everywhere and all the time. Therefore, it's essential to minimize errors and show solidarity to avoid getting pierced. It's challenging to build a strategic plan, or one must make choices based on the players and be willing to expose a sector, likely where their goalkeeper is performing best: the wings. But it's also where the two best scorers of Cherif Amani's team are found. For instance, the leading scorer of Proligue, Jean Pierre Dupoux, and on the other side, Josip Bozic Pavletic with his 11 goals last weekend. Therefore, there's little hope of seeing Selestat halt Tremblay's offensive momentum.
Tremblay should thus emerge victorious in a high-scoring match, with a scoreline around 37-34.


VALENCE HANDBALL VS MASSY ESSONNE HB (08/03/24 CET 19:30)

For a secure hold
Massy could regain the lead over Valence if they manage to win in the Drôme region. This would secure their maintenance, putting it far behind them. But for Valence, it's the same story. The two teams, both of which failed last weekend against promotion contenders, face off. As it's often said, against Valence, everything depends on the pace. If Massy manages to impose their speed and gain more possessions, the match should turn in their favor. However, if the game slows down and the number of possessions is reduced, then Valence will have the key to victory.
Moreover, these are two offensive styles at opposite ends of the spectrum. Valence plays with precise and well-timed long sequences. On the other hand, Massy relies more on short sequences that require players to read the game. It's a clash between closed and open play styles.
If Thomas Lefèvre has chosen the right defensive plan to thwart Aziz Benkahla's tactics, then Valence should not exceed 26 goals. Everything is very tactical, and an intriguing coaching battle awaits. It's gratifying to analyze these different project styles. In any case, both strategies work, as both clubs, despite limited budgets, should easily maintain their positions in Proligue.
The match could end in a draw, but we lean slightly towards Massy due to their preference for reading the game. However, both teams are unlikely to surpass 30 goals.