Indian Wells ATP 1000 - 3rd day
Cobolli F. vs Carballes Baena R.
Cobolli is a promising player who has been performing well on this surface. Since the beginning of the year, he has climbed 41 positions in the ATP rankings and, last week in the Acapulco tournament (conditions not dissimilar from these), he achieved his first career victory against a top 20 player. This leads me to believe that he could dominate this match due to his confidence and continuous improvement. On the other hand, Carballes Baena is a very experienced player who, after negative experiences in Auckland and a first-round exit at the Australian Open, has struggled in the South American clay court swing, also with poor results. He is probably starting to feel the effects of his advancing age, and it is well known that physical fatigue in these temperatures puts a strain on the mind.
Coric B. vs Ofner S.
Coric comes from a defeat in the second round against the current sensation and young prospect Mensik. Coric, an experienced and tactical player, is capable of perfectly exploiting the moments of the match and conceding very little. Therefore, Ofner will struggle against the game of the Croatian player, especially due to his poor start to the season, undermining his previous good results. Few ideas and, above all, little incisiveness in his shots will lead, in my opinion, to another bitter first-round defeat for the Austrian tennis player.
Eubanks C. vs Nakashima B.
For world number 34 Eubanks, it's not an easy time. Endowed with a solid serve and forehand, he is lacking continuity in these fundamentals. Although he seems to have found them to some extent at Acapulco. Nakashima, on the other hand, has descended to the Challenger circuit, where he dominated, earning him the wildcard for this tournament, and he certainly won't want to disappoint. I definitely see this as a fiercely contested match, likely going to a third set with at least one tie-break.
Fils A. vs Borges N.
A match with two faces. Fils, who is almost a guarantee of continuity on this surface, is coming from a super-negative period, albeit on clay. Unlike him, Borges comes from a good tournament in Los Cabos, but last week in Acapulco, he didn't perform well. For me, it all depends on Fils. Certainly, if it goes as last week (27 unforced errors), it will be difficult. Otherwise, there won't be much of a story in the match, as demonstrated by the recent Auckland encounter (6-2/6-0 Fils).
"Kokkinakis T. vs Giron M."
Kokkinakis withdrew from Acapulco due to a problem he has been carrying in his left quadriceps for some time (crucial for his serve and forehand). So the question is: how will he arrive physically? If we put Giron on the other side, who is experiencing his best tennis, playing at home, and is known for consistently pushing his opponents back, especially with his considerable game variations, it becomes clear that the problem could flare up again. If he is in good shape, the story of the match changes entirely.
Kovacevic A. vs Zhang Z.
Zhang, a player who is improving his ranking week after week, challenging all opponents in every tournament, including the top 10 players, likes to dictate the game, strong both from the baseline and at the net. On the other hand, another wildcard with fairly similar characteristics to his opponent but with much less weight. I think in the end, the difference in class on the court will be visible but not so overwhelming. I predict a hard-fought match that may see the Chinese player come out on top.
Popyrin A. vs Maroszan F.
Popyrin is finally finding the continuity he needed to showcase his full repertoire. He's demonstrating real strength, putting aside concentration problems he used to suffer from, and can make big leaps in the rankings. Moreover, I believe this "hybrid" surface could suit his characteristics. Maroszan, on the other hand, is not there as a non-paying spectator; he is also showing some good things, but when it comes to closing out matches, he falters and makes too many mistakes, which you can't afford at this level. However, be careful not to underestimate the match.
Monfils G. vs Purcell M.
Monfils, what can I say, a wonderful player who has practically reached the end of a fantastic career, in one of the tournaments he has loved the most, especially because of the participation of the crowd, which always pumps him up a lot; he has found his tennis again, along with some important results. Purcell, on the other hand, is a player who likes to vary a lot but is not very skilled from the baseline; he tries to rush to the net whenever he can, but with the Frenchman in this condition, I see it tough for his game to succeed, especially due to the slow surface. For me, a match with little story, unless Monfils wants to prolong the show with some of his tricks.
Raonic M. vs Nadal R.
Raonic has returned to the courts after over 2 years of absence. He is the classic big hitter, with a powerful serve and an immediate forehand. He has found good continuity in his game, but the constant predisposition to injuries remains the only variable. Similarly, this is what worries me about his opponent, who has been absent since Wimbledon last year due to a serious abdominal problem, with a brief stint a month ago in Adelaide, retiring due to a wrist problem; for the rest, I don't think Rafa Nadal needs any introduction. It could be an enjoyable match, injuries permitting, where perhaps Raonic will take at least one set to a tie-break, but in the end, I think Rafa will come out on top.
Sonego L. vs Kecmanovic M.
Both players are very strong on this surface and are finding good consistency in their results. There's little to say, it's truly a hard-fought match; pay attention to the crowd factor, which could benefit the Italian, and also the physical condition in the long run is on Sonego's side. Definitely a match that could go to the third set but in the end, I think it will go to the Italian, galvanized by the excellent tournament