Italy – Basket Serie A, Round 17

20-21 January 2024

Trento-Brescia

Eagle in trouble, with 4 losses in the last 5 games, and the defeat against Cremona (99-80) revealing disturbing defensive breakdowns. Grazulis and his teammates are paying the price for a high-flying start to the season, being competitive on two fronts (Serie A plus Eurocup), and now balancing on both. On the other side, a subdued Leonessa arrives, which only needed to flex its muscles in the third quarter to close the deal against Treviso (88-67). However, two consecutive away defeats must serve as a wake-up call for those cohabiting at the top. At the very least, the Burnell-Della Valle axis continues to provide rare peaks of playmaking for Brescia. They have to avenge the first-leg defeat: cautiously, a hard-fought away win is a possibility.

Pistoia-Scafati

Teams tied in the standings (record 8-8), yet in opposite situations: Pistoia qualified for the Italian Cup but is coming off the collapse against Sassari (107-69), while Scafati is out but overwhelmed against Reggiana (102-76). In Tuscany, the praised duo Willis-Moore is naturally taking a breather, while the Campanians – from Rivers to Logan – rely on many showman scorers if they find the right day. Overall similar values, with Pistoia being more solid defensively in the midfield, and vice versa. A wide victory in either direction would be a surprise. But, except for the home court factor favoring Coach Brienza's boys, predictions for this match are to be avoided.

Brindisi-Napoli 2 (21/01/24, h16:30)

No story in Bologna (103-76), and Brindisi's miracle for survival will necessarily pass through PalaPentassuglia. There, the Apulians have won 3 of the last 4 matches (with the only defeat in overtime). Sakota on the bench has slowly forged a team identity, and the Bartley-Sneed axis looks set to be a reliable scoring machine. Enough to warn a highly motivated Napoli, with 3 consecutive wins, including the comfortable 93-75 victory over Pesaro. Pullen and company aim to be the dark horse of the Final Eight but must prove themselves capable of battling on the courts of opponents with their backs against the wall: this will be the case in Brindisi. Considering the current form and overall quality, a complicated Napoli victory, around 160 total points, is likely.

Varese-Bologna (21/01/24, h17:00)

Too much Venezia for Varese, losing the first match (92-103) since Nico Mannion's beneficial arrival. A setback against the league leaders was expected. The trouble is that next up at PalaOldrini is Virtus, eager to catch up at the top and needing to redeem an otherwise inconsistent away performance (record 4-4) compared to their high seasonal standards. We are well aware of Coach Banchi's squad, and Varese can only hope to surprise them with their own strengths: high pace, well-constructed attacks, and high shooting percentages. Bologna will accept the challenge, and the Mannion factor has brought the white and reds' games to very high scores. Also on Sunday, expect a match well above 160 total points – with Virtus being the clear favorite.

Tortona-Venezia (21/01/24, h18:00)

Another last-second heartbreak for Tortona: after elimination in the Champions League by Galatasaray, they suffered a buzzer-beater defeat in Milan (83-82). But the team is there and already responds to Coach De Raffaele's playing philosophy, with excellent ball movement and three-point solutions. Against Venezia, it will be a dive into a shared glorious past for the coach: 2 championships and showers of orogranata records from 2016 to 2023. Reyer has now changed its skin and performers, and Kabengele's addition is proving to be a lethal X-factor under the basket, while Heidegger's presence can offer new playmaking insights. As Coach Spahija emphasizes, rotations are finally deep and of high quality. Yet, considering potential mismatches – Thomas against Tessitori, Weems against Tucker – and knowledge of the opponent, the former Coach De Raffaele's ambush should be considered.

Reggiana-Cremona (21/01/24, h18:15)

Emilians increasingly showing two faces, deadly at home (in the last month, they dispatched Bologna and Sassari, conceding an average of 63 points) and relaxed away (Varese and Scafati on velvet, with over 100 points each). Fortunately for Galloway and his teammates, they return to PalaBigi on Sunday: a fascinating playoff showdown against Cremona. Lombards, on the contrary, have just signaled to the league by defeating Trento – with Grant Golden dominating under the boards. Reggiana won the first leg in a close finish (91-95), and the scenario could repeat itself but with lower scores, below 160 total. Because all signs point to a game with a significant home court advantage, with the Biancorossi being solid in the rear in this case.

Pesaro-Milan (21/01/24, h18:30)

Markis McDuffie will be Pesaro's reinforcement to get out of the quicksand: 26 years old, former Napoli and Piacenza player, he can make a difference as a power forward. But he is unlikely to be available for Sunday's match, with the team otherwise in an emergency and coming off 4 consecutive losses, all with at least a 7-point difference. On the contrary, Olimpia has won 4 of the last 5 games, finally finding consistency in the league. Nicolò Melli stands out, both for scoring abilities and motivation. Apart from a trip to Brindisi, the team has yet to raise its voice away from the Forum: in away games, they have only won 4 out of 8, mostly close ones. Facing a wounded and depleted Pesaro could be the right opportunity: an away win is convincing, even with a margin exceeding 10 points.

Treviso-Sassari

The loss in Brescia was painless for Treviso because all direct competitors for survival also lost. But for Treviso, it's the third in a row: they urgently need to reverse the trend to avoid being sucked into a new negative spiral like the 9 losses that opened the season for the Venetians. Coach Vitucci has encouraged D'Angelo Harrison, a fundamental scoring reference in difficulty. However, it is through teamwork and consistency in defense, without blackout within the 40 minutes, that Treviso can overcome a resurgent Dinamo. The 107-69 against Pistoia signals the Sardinians' push towards the playoffs, now only one point away for the first time this season: Bucchi's teams often mature in winter, and it's happening again. But Sassari is far from irresistible away (record 1-6), and Treviso, driven by the need for results, could take advantage: cautiously, a hard-fought home win, especially in a scenario of medium-low scores, is a possibility.