Italy – Basket Serie A, Round 20

Tortona-Sassari (10/02/24, CET 18:00)
The Piedmontese pirates seize victory in Brindisi (77-86) and have been rejuvenated under the leadership of Walter De Raffaele (4 wins and 2 losses). Weems and his teammates have tightened their defense, conceding only 61.6 points at home, and have refocused on the playoffs. Similar thoughts are circulating in the minds of Dinamo (8-11, one win behind) following their home victory against Cremona. Both teams seem to have overcome their respective difficulties and, due to the quality of their rosters, are destined for better outcomes. The fact is, the winner on Saturday will significantly boost their chances for eighth place: confidence is with Tortona, both due to home-court advantage and the depth of their roster, in a game under 160 total points.

Venezia-Pistoia (11/02/24, CET 15:30)
The gold-and-garnet team brushes off the disappointing loss in Reggio Emilia (77-60) with a Eurocup victory. Now the goal is to repeat that success in the league before the break: their recent string of losses – 3 out of the last 5 – has dropped the former league leaders to fourth place. Pistoia visits the Taliercio for a true appetizer for the Italian Cup: Reyer will also seek to avenge their loss in the first leg, which propelled the Tuscans to the Final Eight. Despite narrowly losing to Milan (72-78) in the last match, slipping out of eighth place, Willis and his team remain formidable and tenacious. Expect a potentially contested match, more than the disparity on paper might suggest: Venezia bears the burden of the result, with confidence that they will have recovered long-term injured players for the Cup – Parks and Kabengele.

Milan-Brindisi (11/02/24, CET 16:00)
Olimpia Milan finally shows its true colors, with five consecutive victories in the league, providing a good foundation for a Cup Italia to be enjoyed without the burdens of being the favorite. This will be the case on Sunday at the Forum: Melli and his teammates have regained balance, consistency over 40 minutes, and playoff-like performance from Shavon Shields. Conversely, Brindisi licks its wounds after the loss against Tortona: it was a game they couldn't afford to lose, with Sakota's boys already out by halftime. And the record (4-15) isn't desperate only because the two above them aren't doing much better. However, leaving Assago with a victory in hand would be a sporting miracle: bet on Milan's victory, even by more than 10 points.

Trento-Treviso (11/02/24, CET 16:30)
The Eagle battles in Thessaloniki but ultimately succumbs in the final quarter, bidding farewell to the Eurocup. Therefore, the heavy expenditure of energy, which has dampened Forray and his teammates' Serie A campaign in recent months, doesn't pay off. The victory against Varese in the last match (90-84) provides oxygen, but it's not seen as a cure-all. Next up is Treviso (record 5-14), under even more pressure and coming from a scorching week: coach Vitucci's outburst in the press room after the debacle against Bologna (61-100) has led the club to reflect. For now, things continue as they are, but Trento knows it's a match on a knife-edge. In terms of prediction, considering their respective difficulties, it's better to focus on other fields: the hosts have more quality, the Venetians more hunger and nerves.

Cremona-Naples (11/02/24, CET 17:15)
Lacey and his teammates put up a fight until the end, but ultimately succumb to Sassari (86-80), marking their fourth loss in the last 5 matches. No dramas, but it's the most delicate moment of the season. The newly promoted side has the opportunity to bounce back immediately at home: however, facing Naples won't be a walk in the park. The Campanians failed their maturity test – two consecutive losses against Brescia and Virtus – but remain a high-level team, boasting one of the best offenses in the league and a deep bench. The feeling is that Cremona is running low on fuel at this stage, both physically and mentally, and another seasonal feat at the PalaRadi will be tough. Expect a hard-fought match, just above 160 total points, with Naples potentially edging it out.

Virtus Bologna-Scafati (11/02/24, CET 18:00)
Victories come easily for Virtus, with new acquisition Zicic becoming increasingly decisive (15+7 in the comfortable win against Treviso, now waiting for a breakthrough in Europe), and rotations running smoothly at a critical moment in the season. With the Italian Cup on the horizon, EuroLeague quarterfinals to secure, and the top spot in the league to claim, Scafati arrives at the Segafredo Arena fresh from yet another close victory this season (83-82 over Pesaro, despite the shock retirement of David Logan). For Gentile and his teammates, dreaming in Bologna is possible, facing the challenge head-on and hoping for a good day from beyond the arc. But on an open court, against the league's second-worst defense, it's difficult for Belinelli to refuse the challenge: trust in Virtus's victory, in a match with a medium-to-high score.

Brescia-Reggiana (11/02/24, CET 19:30)
The roaring Lion, with four consecutive victories by 19 points or more: in the last match, they bowed to Naples (83-104), with Massinburg (23) lethal from three and Cournooh (18) dominant under the basket. Before defending their Italian Cup title, the league leaders will bid farewell to their home crowd against Reggiana. The white-and-reds are coming off their best performance of the season (77-60 against Reyer) but have been leaking points away from the PalaBigi for almost two months now (0-3 with an average margin of -26): it's difficult to reverse the trend against Brescia, with Magro's boys determined to enter the break as sole leaders. Expect an internal victory, potentially by a wide margin if Reggiana's ranks crumble early.

Varese-Pesaro (11/02/24, CET 19:00)
With heads held high, despite a subdued Mannion, Varese nearly snatches a big win in Trento (90-84) and, during the week, confirms their good form by securing a spot in the Europe Cup quarterfinals. However, they can't afford to make mistakes on Sunday: losing to Pesaro at home would be doubly damaging and would suck Varese back into the relegation conversation. Which, conversely, would be definitively avoided with a victory. The Marche side arrives in Lombardy with seven consecutive losses: the last, 83-82 against Scafati after leading until the 38th minute, was painful. For coach Sacchetti, the positive note is that Cinciarini's playmaking combined with Bluiett's scoring showed signs of life; however, they must avoid a collapse after the psychological drama. The hosts are favorites, although the weight of the stakes makes the outcome uncertain. But their respective deficiencies in defense suggest a high-paced game, with total points likely to exceed 160.