LNH Starligue, Round 21

CHAMBÉRY SAVOIE HB
VS FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2024 - 8PM PAYS AIX UNIVERSITÉ CLUB HANDBALL

Tight match again and again ...

Chambéry is on a run of 3 consecutive defeats. The greatest complexity of the Chambéry team is evident. They always manage to match their opponents' level, as evidenced by their last 6 matches, all decided by less than one goal. Whether it's against Paris in the last round and their 34-33 defeat, or against Créteil with their 40-39 victory. It's quite astonishing to see. Will this be the case again this weekend? Perhaps, as they face an Aix team that has gotten back on track. But Chambéry can hope to catch up with their opponents in the standings. Indeed, Chambéry, 9th with 20 points, faces Pays d'Aix, 6th with 22 points. The latter is certainly the most inconsistent team in the championship. You can feel that the project is not well established when you see these differences in results from week to week. It seems that nothing is stable, but rather the exploitation of the individual qualities of their players. Their results therefore depend more on the individual success of their players rather than a collective mastery of the game plan. It's difficult to know exactly how the match will unfold.
But let's bet on continuity. A Chambéry team that will match Aix's level and win by less than two goals.

The very wide game will clearly pose problems for Aix's defense. This defense, which struggles with movement, will naturally open up opportunities for Chambéry. The dissuasion work of the 2 or the 1 in inverted positions is essential to cut off the runs of the outside backs. But for that, efforts must be made. Accepting to have great mobility to cut off Sebastian Skube's plans, the playmaker in the Chambéry ranks. We therefore believe that Chambéry will have the upper hand offensively and should exceed 34 goals with a shooting ratio of 75% from the outside. The wingers and outside backs should have a field day.

And on the other side of the field, Aix's left-to-right game brings them many opportunities through their right backs, each scoring 3 goals in the last match. Or even through Gabriel Loesch's 7 goals as the right winger. The strong moments in the center are only to be exploited by the Aix left-handers. Queido Traoré should therefore have his hands full defending either in a two or in a one against the opposing left-handers. The Aix team should therefore also have the upper hand against the Chambéry defense. Therefore, we predict a Chambéry victory, 35-33.

C’CHARTRES MÉTROPOLE HANDBALL
VS FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2024 - 8PM CESSON RENNES MÉTROPOLE HB

A nugget's trump card

Two teams that are rather in form are facing each other. They each have 3 victories in their last 5 matches. Chartres no longer has any worries about relegation, and Cesson has taken a big breath of fresh air. With 14 points, the Rennes team is now 6 points clear of the first relegation spot occupied by Créteil. So, this is a match to aim higher and try to climb the standings.
On the Chartres side, one man is making the difference: the young Serbian international goalkeeper Milan Bomastar. Since the beginning of the season, he has shown interesting attitudes and abilities. However, he struggled to consistently find the right timing. His saves were often too anticipated and therefore readable. But he has changed that. Surely, it's the adaptation period to get to know the opposing shooters. Indeed, he, who signed for 3 years, is and will be a great asset for Chartres. A good bet, even if his coach Nebosja Stojinovic had already worked with him in Serbia. As the head coach now but also a high- standing goalkeeper, he can provide the advice and key elements for Bomastar to become one of the best goalkeepers in the league. In any case, that's what we wish for him.

After his outstanding performance against Créteil with 16 saves, single-handedly neutralizing the opponent's top scorer, Mario Lopez had a very bad evening. He only managed to score from the 7-meter line. Bomastar could reproduce this high performance against the Cesson wingers. Junior Tuzolana on one side and Théophile Causse on the other could find themselves in difficulty. Yet, most of the solutions against Chartres are found in this area. The winger-goalkeeper duel will therefore be crucial in the final outcome of the match.

On the attacking side, Chartres should not exceed 30 goals. They alternate between isolation play and cross play depending on the players on the field, which could result in a too disjointed game because that's Cesson's plan: to commit as many faults as possible. But what's going better for the Breton side is especially the arrival of Alejandro Romero as a backup goalkeeper. They were sorely lacking in saves, but now they have them again with the pair alongside Arnaud Tabarand. The Cesson defense now concedes few goals.

So, for all these reasons, we expect a narrow victory for Chartres, with a score around 27 goals. A draw is not to be excluded.

US CRÉTEIL HANDBALL
VS SUNDAY, MARCH 24, 2024 - 4PM MONTPELLIER HANDBALL

Exploiting errors

Nothing seems to be going well for Créteil. The last matchday was very damaging for them. Their defeat against Chartres, combined with Saran's victory in Dijon, has left them now second to last with 8 points. They do have a two-point lead over Dijon at the bottom, but they now suffer a two-point setback against their direct rival for survival, Saran, and 3 points behind Ivry. And the arrival of Montpellier on Sunday is not likely to help them. While they are constantly on the edge each week due to the succession of competitions and a reduced squad due to injuries, they still manage to find solutions to win.

Certainly, the cross play around the pivot Valentin Aman will cause problems in the Montpellier defense distribution. So, the pivot should once again be the top scorer for his team. He, along with Jason Muel inside, should find solutions in the Montpellier defense's zone plays around the pivot. And that's one of the strengths of this Créteil team. But it's also in this game directed towards the interior and blocked on the initial phases and solutions. As long as they don't change this profile and accept to put continuity in their game to find even clearer solutions and avoid losing the ball by trying to be decisive too quickly. Fortunately, they don't have Patrice Canayer as coach. They would have repeated the cross plays over and over again to find continuity in their game. And every loss of the ball would have been punished in training. Instead, they are punished every weekend with a significant number of counterattacks for their opponents.

The force of Montpellier's game is to exploit every mistake of the opponents on a large space with a very quick change of status linked to great anticipation. No doubt that Lucas Pellas, Jaime Fernandez on their left wing, or Sébastien Karlsson and Yannis Lenne on their right wing should be fed with counterattacks. The wingers should therefore be the main contributors to Montpellier's success.

MHB should therefore win by a score around 36 to 30. Créteil will have to wait for other opportunities to hope to maintain themselves.

DUNKERQUE HANDBALL GRAND LITTORAL
VS FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2024 - 8PM SARAN LOIRET HANDBALL

Smothered

Saran gave themselves a bit of breathing room in the last matchday. Their victory in Dijon allowed them to escape the relegation zone and take a two-point lead over Créteil, who are now second to last. It's a good start, even though there are still 10 matchdays to go. And it starts with a tricky trip up north. Dunkirk, who themselves may regret narrowly missing out against Aix.

Pau Oliveras, the center-back for Saran, has finally shed his inhibitions. He, who consistently troubled opposing defenses in Proligue with Frontignan, struggled to integrate into Saran's game. Perhaps facing a team he competed against last year did him some good. In any case, with his 9 goals, he can once again become the sharp and impactful player that Saran lacked in the past. His explosiveness in one-on-one situations is undeniable. He should therefore trouble the axis of the Dunkirk defense, or more importantly, win his duels against Tom Pelayo, who is rather weak in this regard. Let's say that in the axis, the defense will tighten around him but open the doors to long-distance shots from William Accambray or Florian Delecroix, the team's two shooting backs. The defense around Benjamin Afgour should therefore do the job as the match progresses by disrupting the opponent's game plan advocated by their coach, Jérémy Roussel.

In attack, Dunkirk will continue to rely on their right-back, the third top scorer in the league, Tom Pelayo. The weaknesses in mobility should see a lot of movement leading to many duels in continuity. This is mainly the weakness of Saran and the strength of Dunkirk. Exploiting the slight imbalance by Tom or Jean Loup Faustin, the center-back, is always done brilliantly. And the second option will mainly be to find the pivots gaining positions on the post 2. There will be a real mismatch in terms of strength. Benjamin Afgour, the starting pivot, or Schuichi Yoshida, the Japanese pivot and future Nantes recruit. A real surprise this signing, which shows the qualities observed day after day in this young pivot. A hard worker who is undeniably progressing. We see the small modifications, especially in attack, in his positional gain or in his timing. That's why Greg Cojean had to make this great choice.

In any case, as for the result, we believe that the Dunkirk defense will suffocate Saran's attack as the match progresses, leading them to a victory that should be around 28 to 26.

US IVRY HANDBALL
VS FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2024 - 8:30PM DIJON MÉTROPOLE HB

How do you maintain your position?

A crucial match for survival. If Ivry manages to win, they would now have a 5-point lead over the first non-relegated team and a 7-point lead over their opponent of the evening, Dijon, the bottom team in the championship. Suffice it to say, it's a key match for Didier Dinart's men. Naturally, it's also important for Dijon, hoping to still have a slim chance of survival. But this slim hope could be dashed this Friday.

Indeed, we believe that the Ivry attack will easily outshine Dijon's defense. The qualities of the Ivry players perfectly match the weaknesses of their opponents. They are quick and explosive in duels, facing a defense that struggles in duels. Often a bit far from each other, they tend to close in prematurely to force that extra pass on which they can act. But that won't be enough. There are too many duelists in Ivry. Léo Martinez and Antonin Mohamed, the center-backs, should be the top scorers for their team. Well supported in offensive scoring by Aymeric Zaepfel once again. It should all be too fast for Dijon. Ivry should therefore surpass 35 goals in this match.

But Dijon also has weapons to showcase. Steeven Bois and Jules Lignieres, the two center-backs, should continuously attack Gautier Loredon in duels. He lacks mobility and will need to be supported by his teammates to avoid being too isolated. But this will open up opportunities for perfectly executed skip passes by Jules Lignieres. Loïs Pasquet should therefore still have plenty of shooting opportunities. But the experience of Mate Sunjic should make the difference. The Ivry goalkeeper is accustomed to playing relegation matches. He should therefore make more than 10 saves in this confrontation.

He will help his teammates win in a match that should end around 36 to 30.

LIMOGES HAND 87
VS SUNDAY, MARCH 24, 2024 - 5PM PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN HANDBALL

The gaming experience

Limoges and Paris experienced two identical scenarios in their last match, but in opposite directions. Paris had control against Chambéry before getting scared and losing in the final seconds, which could have deprived them of a deserved victory. Limoges, on the other hand, suffered a setback but relentlessly fought back to finish just two goals behind Montpellier. However, the match was already decided. While Paris will face Montpellier in the French Cup semifinals, Limoges will rest to focus all their energy on this match. It's always an exciting challenge to play against the league giants, and although Paris is currently prone to dropping points, especially as seen against Toulouse or Chambéry, it's unlikely to happen again, especially once European competitions resume. For now, they are in control of their game.

They will need to be at their best against this experienced Limoges team. But Paris's attack, which often moves towards the center, will help them defend calmly. It's crucial to play wide against the Parisian defense to isolate and slightly unsettle them. Otherwise, their physical density makes them difficult to exploit head-on. Therefore, Limoges must create initial focal points that lead to real strong moments. Limoges knows how to do this but tends to be too centered. Luka Karabatic and his teammates should keep their opponents to fewer than 27 goals.

Meanwhile, Paris's attack will continue to unfold. Elohim Prandi is becoming increasingly consistent in his performances. His power will overpower the opposing left-handers. And if not, we will once again see Kamil Syprzak positioning himself at the post one, facing Dragan Gagic, the future retiree. Gagic, the incredible right winger and former Montpellier star, has always struggled in defense, especially against pivots. It used to be one of the opponents' weapons to defeat Montpellier and take him out of the game. There is no doubt that Raul Gonzalez will have that insight if Limoges starts causing them problems.

Limoges will struggle to contain the Parisian attack and is likely to succumb in a match that could end around 35 to 27.

HBC NANTES
VS SUNDAY, MARCH 24, 2024 - 7PM FENIX TOULOUSE HANDBALL

Master of surprises?

Here's a highly anticipated matchup that Toulouse coach Danijel Andjelkovic must have noted in his playbook. He's known for his penchant for grand exploits through strategic choices, and we can imagine he'll have a few tricks up his sleeve to find solutions against the often ruthless Nantes. Both teams stood out in their last match, securing easy victories of over 10 goals each. It promises to be an exciting handball match that we're eager to observe and analyze.

Aymeric Minne, consistently performing well with his club, once again showcased all his qualities with the French national team. He must be hoping to secure a spot at the Paris Olympics, although it's far from guaranteed. His frustration at not being selected for the Euros has passed, and he's focused on delivering great performances with his club. However, his defensive struggles, particularly in managing pivots at the highest level, could pose challenges. Gabriel Nyembo may occasionally step in to support him, but he's often replaced defensively by Jérémy Toto, the defensive leader. Toulouse is likely to attack this area heavily on the right through Ayyou Abdi. Facing his future club, he'll be eager to showcase his full range of skills at the H Arena to his future supporters. This context could either relax him or, conversely, lead to psychological blockage and one of the worst matches of his career. At the moment, it's impossible to predict his psychological state. What we do know are his great qualities as a handball player, especially in duels, where he regularly uses his shoulder to engage more effectively. His agility allows him to push if he has truly won his duel or to shoot since his engaged shoulder acts as a shield, preventing the defender from reaching his shooting arm. This is why he's rarely caught with the ball in hand, allowing Toulouse to maintain continuity around all their one-on-one situations. Toulouse should easily surpass 30 goals against Nantes.

But will this be enough against the league's best attack? We don't think so. Nantes has too many weapons in their arsenal. Despite enduring long-term surefire keys that still impact them, the depth of their bench always poses a threat. Thibaud Briet consistently makes a difference with his change of pace, and for other players, it depends on the matchups and opponent's qualities. This Sunday, Jorge Maqueda could shine, especially near the counter, as he often likes to do. All of this should allow Nantes to exceed 35 goals.

Therefore, a Nantes victory is expected in a match that won't be easy. Toulouse will pose real problems for Nantes, but they should ultimately emerge victorious with a scoreline around 36-34. It promises to be an exciting offensive handball match.

USAM NÎMES GARD
VS SATURDAY, MARCH 23, 2024 - 8PM SAINT-RAPHAËL VHB

Marquez, Marquez, Marquez ...

Nîmes is currently struggling with two consecutive defeats. However, losing to Montpellier and then Toulouse is somewhat expected. It's the manner of these losses that is concerning, particularly the lackluster attack evidenced by their 16 goals against Montpellier. They are sinking in the standings and could potentially drop below 10th place if these performances persist. They face Saint-Raphaël, a team known for its inconsistency. They have their ups and downs. Their last game was a "yes" with a convincing victory over Ivry, 33-31. However, one thing is clear: their significant defensive struggles, conceding an average of 33.75 goals per game. This could potentially help Nîmes get their attack back on track. The key point of the match clearly revolves around this aspect. Will USAM Nîmes manage to score more than 33 goals?

On the other hand, there's not much to criticize about Saint-Raphaël's attack. They are very effective and should also score more than 30 goals against Nîmes. Their attack, led masterfully by the tireless Jose Marquez, who scored 7 goals in the last game, is formidable.
Now, let's return to the key point of the match: Nîmes' attack against the opponents' defensive weaknesses. They had lost their rhythm in the past few games, but Jesper Konradsson seems to have found his form again, as evidenced by his 5 goals against Toulouse. However, what we should expect this weekend is Tom Poyet, Nîmes' pivot, receiving plenty of balls. He's comfortable in the slips and should regularly find himself unmarked under the high coverage of the opposition's defenders. It's up to the line players to control these slips in their game plan, but Tom Poyet's speed should make the difference against the slower-moving Adrien Di Panda in the defensive line. Now, it's up to him to convert these opportunities. It's worth noting that this has always been his Achilles' heel.

But what we really want to see is if Nîmes has regained their spirit. Team cohesion must not be at its best when there's such a lack of reaction. However, the change must come from the players, especially the senior players. However, it's unclear who the senior players really are anymore. This is where the difficulty in cohesion lies, the difficulty in accepting one's role and that of their partner, or simply the clarity of these roles.
We believe that the problem is too great, and Saint-Raphaël should secure victory by 3 to 4 goals.