LFH Division 1, Women Round 16

BREST BRETAGNE HANDBALL VS LES NEPTUNES DE NANTES
14/02/24 CET 19:00

International shock
A beautiful match, with duels in every corner of the 40-20, awaits us. Indeed, both teams have many internationals among their ranks. And notably many French World Champions. Among the Brest players, we count 3: Alicia Toublanc, Pauletta Foppa, and Coralie Lassource. Likewise, on the Neptunes side, there are Tamara Hoacek, Oriane Ondono, and Léna Grandveau. It's also worth noting that two Nantes players have signed with Brest for next year: Floriane André as goalkeeper and Oriane Ondono as pivot. So, we may wonder about the level of commitment they will bring to the match, despite the undeniable professionalism of these players. A top-level match awaits us with the two best attacks in the championship behind Metz. Therefore, we should expect an intense match with plenty of goals.

This is one of the decisive matches for the title for Brest before the return match against Metz. All the ingredients are there to witness great handball. If there is a notable difference in this match, it's the dissuasion tactics posed by Brest, disrupting the timings of the opponents' movements. The ball speed of the Nantes players is expected to be reduced compared to their usual pace. Therefore, they will have to rely more on strong moments in duels or on 2-player relationships. Léna Grandveau, the Nantes left-back, should have more freedom for her one-on-ones against Pauletta Foppa. Apart from this player, Brest's defense should be effective against Nantes' game. The usually successful right backs, Orlane Ahanda and Marie Hélène Sajka, will have less space for their successes. They will need to find other weapons, especially with their pivot, to open up shooting opportunities through long runs. Therefore, Nantes' attack is expected to see reduced productivity.

Will they also manage to reduce Brest's impact? Unfortunately, we don't think so for them. Their slightly lack of intentions will leave room for Brest's game. Valeria Maslova should have fun, either with her precise long-distance shots or with her relationship with her pivot. Pauletta Foppa or Hawa N'diaye should, therefore, receive plenty of balls. By combining their performances, they will be the ones with the most impact in Brest's offensive game.

We expect a match easily surpassing 32 goals on both sides, with a Brest victory by only a few lengths. The quality of their defense should make the difference unless the future Brest goalkeeper Florian André gets into top form.


CHAMBRAY TOURAINE HANDBALL VS ES BESANÇON FÉMININ
14/02/24 CET 19:00

Time for the defenders to win
Two of the best defenses in the championship are facing off, both in a fairly similar style organized around zone work, mutual aid, and reverse exits. This certainly brings many solutions to the wings, but it is where the goalkeepers can be most effective. Agathe Quiniou on one side, extremely well positioned, never makes an unnecessary move and rarely offers an opening. She excels in anticipation. On the other hand, there's Sakura Hauge, more focused on reading the opponent's shooter. But she is currently less utilized in favor of Tonje Lerstad, the Norwegian goalkeeper. Lerstad has a completely different profile, more comfortable from a distance and very unorthodox up close. She often makes her saves too hastily. So, she can make great saves but also be entirely beaten, as seen in her last two duels against Dijon. Their draw is partly thanks to her overall performance, yet also due to her allowing some easy goals during crucial moments. This goalkeeper duel linked to their defense is therefore a key element of this match.

Chambray's physical density should make the difference. Alizée Frecon-Demouge will have to put her body on the line if she wants to have an impact and navigate through the narrow gaps as she usually does. Because against tonight's opponents, the gaps are reduced and minimal due to their physical power. That's why Chambray often neutralizes their adversaries. And as long as Sébastien Mizoule insists on playing his left-hander in the right-back position, Besançon will continue to lose balls and momentum. The difference in the match should be made in those moments, with the exploitation of open spaces resulting from Malin Sandberg's turnovers. Her game with the three right-backs has been more effective since the beginning of the year.

On the other side, Nadia Mielke-Offendal will continue to lead Chambray's game, either through her duels or by setting up her backcourt players. But what we should see this weekend are her strong moments related to quick transitions to find her wings directly. It's up to them to do the job to jeopardize Besançon's defensive plan. The absence of Manon Houette on her left wing could cause problems in finishing.

Therefore, we expect a victory for Chambray Touraine Handball with a score around 28 goals. The difference should exceed 4 goals in the end.


JDA BOURGOGNE DIJON HANDBALL VS HANDBALL PLAN DE CUQUES - 14/02/24 CET 19:00

How do you decide?
Dijon, currently 6th with 29 points, faces Plan de Cuques, 7th with 28 points. At this moment, both teams have shown commendable performances consistently. This is attributed to their quality of play, which harnesses the strengths of their players. So how can they be set apart? Mérignac may have shown Dijon the way in the last round. They managed to put Plan de Cuques in difficulty through a block-based game exploited by the backcourt players. Ultimately, they only conceded by one point in Provence. However, Dijon will need to find their bearings after the dismissal of their former coach Christophe Mazel. We saw in their first match that this did not significantly impact the quality of their game. As the saying goes, the best coaches are those who can make their team play without their presence.

Therefore, it's conceivable that quality work has been done on operational cohesion. The harmony on the field surpasses any issues or obstacles that could affect the results. Each player seems to be willing to fight for her teammate, in both teams.
We are concerned for Dijon due to the quality of Plan de Cuques' wingers. Their zone defense, which funnels the game towards the inside, leads to numerous reverse exits from the number 1 positions. If Manon Grimaud, the center back, manages to skip the relays, Chloe Bellonet and Justine Martel, the wingers, should have plenty of shooting opportunities. It's now up to them to make the difference against the Burgundy goalkeeper. Nevertheless, we see Justine Martel's variety of shots prevailing.

Regarding Plan de Cuques' defense, we envision them shifting to a 1-5 formation with Manon Grimaud as an advanced defender to disrupt Dijon's game continuity. Since Dijon's game is based on the quality of their players' reading, it could be complicated by these new reference points. Indeed, few teams in this championship defend in a staggered manner. However, this could disrupt the well-oiled game of some teams like Dijon. Against the 0-6 formation, Stine Lonborg's duels effectively initiate her team's strong moments. From that point on, it's just a matter of exploiting or following up with movements to rebound the game.

Therefore, we expect an enjoyable match with a final victory for Plan de Cuques. The Provencal wingers should be the top scorers for their team to achieve this result. The match will be tight and will likely end with a score around 28 goals.


PARIS 92 VS TOULON MÉTROPOLE VAR HANDBALL
14/02/24 CET 13:30

Only one option
The worst defense in the championship, conceding an average of 31.8 goals per match, has once again shown its weakness. Toulon has just conceded 35 goals against Chambray, known primarily for its defense. They cannot seem to neutralize opposing attacks. And facing Paris 92 won't make it any easier. Indeed, Paris's attack averages 30 goals per match. The combination of the two teams suggests a match with around 37 goals.

However, Toulon shows real offensive qualities. The arrival of Béatriz Souza has been beneficial for them, both in game balance and in the impact provided by the Portuguese right back. She has been averaging 4.5 goals since her arrival. Therefore, Toulon should even manage to reach 30 goals against Paris. Apart from the Portuguese player, their movements and dueling abilities can challenge the opposing central defense. But they'll need to be able to find space despite being in a physically disadvantaged position. Magdalena Agusti Fernandez should also stand out in this Varois game. The Spanish center- back not only organizes the game but also generally manages to penetrate the intervals well. So, this is the sector where Toulon could make a semblance of a match.

Unfortunately, their major weaknesses in duels are likely to lead them to lose this match again. Despite the 1-5 defense they could, or rather should, propose, they will have to confront Adja Ouattara. She naturally has the physical advantage over her opponents. But technically, she is comfortable with turning. So, she doesn't necessarily need to win her position; she just needs to find passing angles with her backcourt players. Her technique and physique should overpower all opposing defenders. Therefore, she should end up being the top scorer for her team in this match. If not her, as indicated last week, we should see Coura Kanouté. She will trouble the Varois defense with her fiery duels. Her explosiveness is impressive. And given the distance between the Toulon players, no mutual aid will be possible. Therefore, we see Paris 92 managing to exploit all the opponents' weaknesses.

So, they should win by a margin of 10 goals with an attack of more than 37 goals. Toulon will fight like hell, especially thanks to their attack, which could approach the 30-goal mark.

OGC NICE CÔTE D’AZUR HANDBALL VS  STRASBOURG ACHENHEIM TRUCHTERSHEIM HANDBALL - 14/02/24 CET 19:30

Double or nothing
What a suspenseful and high-stakes match. Strasbourg, 10th with 23 points, travels to OGC Nice, 13th and currently in the relegation zone with 22 points. It's a crucial 6-point game, where the team that wins this duel will have some breathing room, at least for a week. Two of the weakest defenses, conceding an average of 31.5 goals per match, are facing each other. This should result in a high-scoring game with plenty of goals. We're eagerly anticipating this matchup. And we know that in games with such stakes, defenses make the difference because the ball feels much heavier when it's in one's hands. But which defense will manage to stand out?

And we believe that Nice's defense is better suited to handle different situations. But why, you might ask? Simply because it's more compact. It's a defense that sticks to its players but provides early help and forces the extra pass. This isn't the case for Strasbourg, which keeps its players further apart. Therefore, we should see duelists like Lilou Borg on the Alsace side shining. Indeed, she should win many duels, but she'll need to deliver good balls to her teammates once numerical superiority is achieved.

On the Nice side, the spaces between the opposing defenders should provide opportunities for Adriana Holejova, the young Slovakian right back. She recently scored 5 goals against Paris 92 and is likely to continue in the same vein. She should be accompanied by Nice's best duelist, Wendy Semedo. This 20-year-old left back is expected to be the top scorer in this match if Clément Alcacer, her coach, gives her some playing time. She still faces difficulties in collective play, but she fits perfectly into tactical plans against such a defense. No need for the extra pass; she just needs to win her duel with the goalkeeper after winning her one-on-one duels.

All of this, combined with Nice's experience in the battle for survival, should lead to a Nice victory by a 5-goal margin. They would thus leapfrog their opponents for the evening by a single point. Let's now turn the page to the next chapter in this book on survival.

MÉRIGNAC HANDBALL VS METZ HANDBALL
14/02/24 CET 19:00

2 Gap divisions
The physical, technical, tactical, and psychological gap is too wide in this matchup. Indeed, there's a considerable difference in class between these two teams. We should expect a significant gap at the end of the match. Mérignac, despite coming off a good performance against Plan de Cuques, unfortunately couldn't secure a win. They fell short by just one goal. Meanwhile, Metz handed St Amand a heavy defeat, sending them back from Moselle with 40 goals in their bag. We fear a similar outcome this Wednesday. We should especially see some young talents getting some playing time to gain experience for the future.

Young Mélissa Chantelly, a left back for Mérignac, has already shown glimpses of her potential. In just a few minutes, this 17- year-old player demonstrated her character with 3 crucial goals. Her exploits could have been decisive, but unfortunately, it wasn't enough for her team. We hoped that Mérignac could leave with points to congratulate and thank her appropriately. However, she should still have the opportunity to play a few minutes despite such a large gap. Let's see what she can do against the young players from Metz. Emmanuel Mayonnade should take advantage of this matchup to rest some key players and give playing time to his young apprentices. Emma Jacques should once again step onto the court and use her 6'3" frame to shoot from long distance. This unusual profile can become very impactful if utilized correctly. We should also see Mia Brkic, the young 20-year-old Croatian pivot. She scored 3 goals in her last match and is naturally behind Sarah Bouktit, who is irreplaceable in big games. But whenever Mia is on the field, she demonstrates her potential and ability to find herself alone in open spaces.

Lastly, Zaliata Mlamali, the substitute for the league's top scorer, should leverage her great physical qualities. This 20-year-old left winger has the physical potential to reach new heights. It's up to her to improve her technique and reading of the opposing goalkeeper to increase her shooting accuracy.

So, here's what should happen. The starters will do the job to quickly establish a significant gap. From that moment on, we'll enter what we can call the "garbage time," highlighting all the young players with potential. In conclusion, Metz should win with an attack of more than 38 goals. Meanwhile, Mérignac is expected to end up with 24 goals.

ST AMAND HANDBALL – PORTE DU HAINAUT VS STELLA SAINT-MAUR HANDBALL
14/02/24 CET 18:30

Preparing for Division 2
Stella, currently last with 17 points and 6 points away from safety, is already preparing for their future season in Division 2. They have released their top player and goal scorer, Mathilde Plotton, who will be heading to Dijon next season. They will need to rebuild by seeking a balance among their scorers to achieve equilibrium in their gameplay and consequently a more incisive attack. They travel to St Amand this Wednesday hoping to keep their hopes alive a little longer. Unfortunately, we do not believe this will be possible, even against St Amand. The deficits are too significant.

Especially in terms of offensive pace. While Mathilde, who averages 7 goals per match, should maintain her standards, or even reach 10 goals against a somewhat more fragile Saint Amand defense. Indeed, the lack of intent from the opposing defenders should allow Stella's game to flow freely. St Amand will solely react during moments of strength. This should provide a few additional opportunities. Left winger Elise Delorme, with her flattened defenses, should thus obtain some openings and assist her teammate in scoring.

However, this is unlikely to be sufficient to match St Amand's offensive output. They average 26 goals per match. They rely on a player who has been in great form since the restart. Louison Boisorieux, their substitute left back, averages 7 goals per match. She is undoubtedly one of the best bench players in the league, akin to the concept in basketball. She comes on and inevitably brings her energy, vigor, and skills. She engages in duels at 200% in both directions, and if opponents remain flat- footed, she has the ability to shoot over their heads. Her wrist finishing completes the picture. St Amand was right to extend her contract for another season. I know that some clubs are disappointed they didn't position themselves more quickly.

She should continue to deliver her performance and challenge the Saint-Maur defense. They will need to tighten the spaces around this player and hope to neutralize the openings through reverse work.

Due to Stella's lackluster attack, we expect a St Amand victory by only 4 goals in a relatively tight match.