Final Eight, Coppa Italia Basket

Milan-Trento (02/14/24, CET 17:00)
By the strict schedule, it's the most balanced matchup. And so were both previous meetings this season, with Olimpia only managing to pull away in the final quarter. However, this Wednesday, despite the uncertainties of a single-game matchup, there's a risk it might end up being a one-sided affair: Milan, with 6 consecutive wins in Serie A and the recent scalp of Real Madrid still fresh in Euroleague, has finally found excellent form, while Trento, with 2 wins and 9 losses in 2024, seems to be in the midst of a vertical psycho-physical collapse. Not to mention the already significant quality gap on paper. Ettore Messina is right to keep his team focused because especially in these moments, Milan can be its own worst enemy. But the red shoes will step onto the court with a goal - to win the 9th Italian Cup, which would be a record - and a desire for redemption after a disappointing first part of the season. On the other hand, Aquila depends on the flashes of Grazulis and Baldwin: so far, they haven't been enough, especially during defensive possessions, which have been alarming - conceding an average of 89.1 points in the last 9 games. Yes to Olimpia's victory with a margin of 10 or more points and under 160 total points, especially if Melli and his teammates can tighten their defense.

Venice-Pistoia (02/14/24, CET 19:45)
Reyer was overwhelming in the recent Serie A appetizer, played on Sunday at the Taliercio (96-69). The orange-and-black team closed with 5 players scoring in double digits, and most importantly, they regained Mfiondu Kabengele earlier than expected, a fundamental presence under the basket. In the Cup, the only doubt remains about the return of the long-term absentee Parks: coach Spahija can smile. Pistoia, on the other hand, had a day to forget, sinking to -39 and seeing Jordon Varnado exit early: for the American forward, it would be yet another seasonal injury. And coach Brienza, in the press conference on the eve of the quarterfinals, admitted that everything would depend on his player's last-minute attempt. Who remains a fundamental piece for a Pistoia team already short in rotations, compensated so far by the talent of individuals - especially Moore and Willis - and great team spirit. Significant technical gap in favor of Reyer, but beware of underestimating the Tuscans who will make the contest much more fought than what was seen in the league. Confidence, however, in Venice's victory, within a match on the edge of 160 total points.

Virtus Bologna-Reggiana (02/15/24, CET 17:00 )
The mission for the "black and greens" is also the ninth Italian Cup, called to redeem the defeat in the final of the last edition. So far, coach Banchi's men haven't disappointed, especially in matches that are do or die: the Supercup is already in the trophy cabinet, Euroleague promising great nights, and they've also kicked into gear in Serie A with 5 consecutive wins. But their last defeat dates back to the away game in Reggio Emilia, where the hosts managed to surprise Virtus (72-66) in the only previous encounter this season. Crucial, on that occasion, was a tough defense and a 24-point performance by Kevin Hervey - even though Bologna was playing without Mickey and Belinelli. It's a sign that suggests a certain balance even on Thursday: Reggio so far has suffered from inconsistency, alternating great performances with bad outings, but in a single-game situation, they can also make themselves count due to some potentially favorable mismatches against Virtus. Which still remains the favorite, in a match with an uncertain script both in terms of the points difference and the total score.

Brescia-Naples (02/15/24, CET 19:45 )
Forget about the head-to-head clash from two weeks ago, with Leonessa overwhelming in Campania (83-104): if these quarterfinals were to bring a surprise, all eyes would be on the closing game. Apparently, it seems one-sided: Brescia, leading in Serie A and with the badge of the Italian Cup to defend, arrives with momentum - 5 consecutive wins with an average margin of over 20 points - while Naples has lost the last 3, conceding almost 100 points on average. Yet Ennis and his teammates have talent all over the court, which coach Milicic has managed to highlight by proposing an aggressive basketball style. Make no mistake, the balance still tilts towards Brescia, because so far they've been a steamroller, seldom betraying even mentally. But for Magro's boys, this will be the slipperiest test: with no warning signs, riding high, against an opponent who, if confident from the arc, can trouble anyone. Thus, an uncertain outcome looms, beyond 160 total points given the offensive abilities of both teams. And for those seeking a gamble, keep an eye on Naples.