LNH DIVISION 1 – Round 19
CHAMBÉRY SAVOIE HB VS C’CHARTRES METROPOLE HANDBALL 03/03/2024 - 6PM
One on one in every direction
Chambéry has finally fallen after 7 consecutive undefeated matches. And this happened in a tightly contested match against Saint-Raphaël. Now, they face the surprise team of the weekend. Chartres emerged splendidly against Nantes with a draw that speaks volumes. With the team at full strength, they are much more balanced and can trouble all their opponents.
Indeed, the relentless attacks from Yvan Verin are incessant. One can imagine him being impactful once again against Chambéry. His hip shots should catch the Chambéry goalkeepers off guard. Coupled with his duels either inside or outside, Maximilian Jonsonn, the lone left-hander in the last match, can shine. However, Alexandre Tritta, a one-match wonder, is absent once more, but we lack adequate information to know the nature of his absence. We were so thrilled to see him back on the handball courts that our sadness matches that joy. We just hope tonight is a minor setback and not a continuation of his burnout.
Now, only Yvan Verin on the left back and Vanja Ilic should trouble this team. The rest should be handled by Chambéry's collective defensive coherence. Chartres should, therefore, be held to 28 goals.
On the other side of the field, the tireless duelist Sebastian Skube will continue to create focal points. He'll face Hugo Jund, the young Chartres defending pivot, who will struggle to contain his direct opponent. Saint-Raphaël has chosen to reduce their assistance on him, and it has worked quite well. We anticipate Chartres continuing in this vein. Despite Alejandro Costoya's absence at the left-back position, Iosu Goni Leoz should step up this time and score more than usual. We expect him to score around 5 goals. He will assist his team with his expansive playstyle, which will challenge the Chartres defense.
Chambéry should, therefore, prevail with a scoreline approaching 30-28. It's a match that's very enjoyable to analyze tactically.
US CRÉTEIL HANDBALL VS DUNKERQUE HANDBALL GRAND LITTORAL – 01/03/2024 - 8:30 PM
Finally back?
Créteil, coming off a draw against Saran, is hosting Dunkerque this time. The battle for survival continues. They failed to secure safety last weekend, so they have a new opportunity now. Meanwhile, Dunkerque restored order with their impressive victory over Ivry, winning 32-30. The northerners managed to defeat a direct opponent, and every match like this is worth double points every weekend. Here comes another duel for survival.
Créteil's high speed against Dunkerque's rhythm control. Dunkerque's game is even considered somewhat slow, but against Créteil, their pace forces the opponent to play faster. Once again, turnovers should play a crucial role. Créteil's turnovers are likely to allow Florian Billant, Dunkerque's right winger, to be the top scorer of the evening. He always plays modestly and exploits what is given to him, whether on fast breaks or set attacks. His ability to read the goalkeeper makes him a very efficient winger, as evidenced by his 7 goals last weekend.
In his duel with Mario Lopez, we should expect some excitement. Sobriety against the creativity of Créteil's right winger. Lopez, with his wide range of shots, enjoys surprising his defender by penetrating the defense. However, facing the low stature of Dunkerque's defenders, he may find fewer opportunities this time. Nevertheless, penalties will always make him one of the top scorers of the match.
This long-distance duel perfectly reflects this opposition: sobriety against creativity. We know that creativity without a solid tactical foundation cannot succeed, and vice versa. The match is therefore very challenging to predict. We just believe that Dunkerque's defensive weaknesses against a lot of mobility should lead to their defeat.
Therefore, we expect a victory for Créteil on their home turf in a match that will exceed 32 goals.
US IVRY HANDBALL VS CESSON RENNES METROPOLE HB 01/03/2024 - 8PM
Hold in view
Following their impressive performance last weekend, Cesson Rennes is finally seeking consistency in their performances. They hope to achieve it against an equally inconsistent team, Ivry. Playing at home, Ivry aims to surpass their opponents and secure a 5-point lead in the relegation battle.
To achieve this, they will once again rely heavily on Aymeric Zaepfel. But how far can he go? After scoring 11 goals against Toulouse, he followed up with twelve goals against Dunkerque, all from open play without any penalties. With every possession, he brings incredible impact and commitment. Only fatigue could potentially diminish his effectiveness, but currently, he is at the peak of his abilities, accompanied by confidence as long as he continues to perform exceptionally. He is expected to be one of the main contributors to Ivry's offensive efficiency, especially in the absence of Léo Martinez. It seems Antonin Mohamed, the diminutive winger turned center-back, excels at providing opportunities for his left-back. Moreover, weaknesses on both sides of the Cesson Rennes team should further enhance his success. Therefore, we do not foresee the Bretons managing to reduce the impact of Ivry's attack.
Despite knowing that turnovers from the opponents will allow Junior Tuzolana to be the top scorer of the evening for his team. As the left winger anticipates all counterattacks, he should frequently find himself in direct duels against David Bernard, Ivry's in-form goalkeeper. His proficiency in close-range shots should make the difference. While Mathieu Salou has finally found his rhythm, he is likely to be the only one succeeding in set attacks. His teammates attempting shots from 6 meters are likely to fail against the compactness of Dinard's defensive setup.
Therefore, we anticipate an Ivry victory by a margin of 3 goals with over 33 goals scored in total.
LIMOGES HAND 87 VS SAINT RAPHAËL VHB
02/03/2024 - 8 P.M.
Axial attack
Limoges, who was disappointing in Rennes, now hosts Saint-Raphaël. Saint-Raphaël, on the other hand, is coming off a very impressive victory against Chambéry, emphasizing their attacking prowess with 34 goals. Now, they face another equally challenging confrontation.
The strength of Limoges' central defense should diminish the impact of José Marquez. Their physical density suits players of his style well. However, they struggle against long-range shooters. Therefore, Micke Brasseleur should find opportunities to express himself. His shoulder allows him to shoot from all positions, often facilitated by his half-backs. While Saint-Raphaël's play lacks width to open up outer spaces, quick passes to the wingers pay dividends. Indeed, the two left wingers, Raphaël Caucheteux and Drevy Paschal, combined for 17 goals last weekend, including penalties. Their efficiency and threat on the field of Starligue continue to impress, and this should persist against Limoges. It's thanks to players like them that Saint-Raphaël is expected to surpass 30 goals once again this Saturday.
On the other hand, weaknesses in managing the pivot should provide solutions for Tomislav Kusan. The Croatian pivot excels in finding space and should exploit openings between defenders. This tactical approach will likely lead Limoges to also exceed 30 goals.
Therefore, it should end in a closely contested match with Saint-Raphaël securing victory by a margin of around 35 to 32.
HBC NANTES VS DIJON METROPOLE HB – 01/03/2024 -8:30 PM
A mini-stop?
And here's a misstep for Nantes that they would have preferred to avoid. The race for the title must now be out of their minds. They need to focus on securing a spot in the Champions League and that second place. With a 3-point lead over Montpellier, the path is clear. Now, they need to get the job done. And the first step that comes their way is a duel against the bottom team in the championship. A formality, one would think.
Except that Nantes is dealing with injuries at the moment. They're piling up despite the return of Thibaut Briet. The accumulation of competitions is clearly taking a toll on everyone's bodies. Fortunately, there's depth in every position, and especially the young talents from the training center are shining. When you see the quality of Ernest Pineau, you realize he could fit into any D1 team. His agility and ability make him a future star of the Liqui Moly Starligue. But for now, he's helping Nantes cope with the injuries. This even earned them a point against Chartres. However, it wouldn't be wise to replicate that against Dijon. Unfortunately, Dijon's defensive lapses will be easily exploited by all of Nantes' dueling players. Thibaut Briet and Aymeric Minne should once again be the top scorers. On the other hand, Dijon is playing boldly in attack. Their 41 goals against Toulouse prove it. The recruitment of Edgar Dentz is a real asset. It should help them in other matchups, but the balance of power is too high here to believe they can win.
Therefore, we expect Nantes to win by scoring over 38 goals. Dijon should come closer to 32 goals.
USAM NIMES GARD VS MONTPELLIER HANDBALL
03/03/2024 - 7 P.M.
Hot derby
Ah, this derby, we've been eagerly awaiting it for years. Montpellier, always near the top of the rankings, has often stumbled in the fiery atmosphere of Parnasse. Crossing the Vidourle River is never an easy task. And once again, it promises to be a tough encounter. David has always tried to defeat Goliath, relying on heart, commitment, and sometimes even over-aggression to compensate for technical deficits. We can imagine a similar scenario playing out, especially with the number of injuries plaguing MHB.
Their backline is currently decimated, with both starting pivots, Veran Nacinovic and Karl Konan, playing through injuries. Despite being sidelined at times, they are doing their best to contribute to their teammates whenever they're on the court. The match is expected to be decided by the defensive intensity brought by Nîmes. This will lead to numerous fast breaks, exploited directly by Mohamed Sanad. Their defensive risk-taking will result in many turnovers, and with Sanad leading the charge, Guéric Vincent, the Nîmes left winger, should also be among the top scorers of the evening.
However, Nîmes must manage and add depth to their attacking play to avoid a reversal of fortunes.
As is often the case, we anticipate another surprise in the fiery atmosphere of Parnasse. Nîmes to claim victory by scoring over 33 goals in a match that will be decided in the final moments.
PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN HANDBALL VS FENIX TOULOUSE HANDBALL 03/03/2024 - 5 P.M.
The way is clear
Paris, on their way to the title, faces Toulouse this time. They now have a 6-point lead over Nantes, who stumbled, and a 9-point lead over Montpellier, whom they faced this Sunday. The path to victory is clear, and they just need to manage their ambitions in the Champions League alongside their dominance in the championship. However, it won't be easy against a team that often gives them a tough time to secure a win. Toulouse will come full of determination with nothing to lose.
It's in these types of matches that Jeff Lettens, their Belgian goalkeeper, is most effective. When least expected, he can pull off numerous exploits. Paris needs to be cautious not to let him disrupt their plans. Unfortunately for Fenix, we don't believe it will be enough. Firstly, due to the quality of all the Parisian players, but also due to their tactical project. Especially against their former teammate, Luc Steins. Toulouse, his former club, was a launching pad for his international and European career. He has become the best player in the championship. His atypical profile wasn't necessarily expected to reach this level. Traditionally, the older players rely more on physicality. However, he has proven that size doesn't matter. What matters most is knowing how to exploit one's qualities. He plays with a low center of gravity due to his small stature, allowing him to change direction faster than his opponents and other central midfielders in the championship. His change of direction, coupled with a change of pace, creates immediate openings to exploit due to the forced closure. If this were an individual sport, Luc Steins would score 35 goals per match. Therefore, closing him down is necessary to force an extra pass. Even Bakay Diallo, one of the best defenders in our championship, is expected to struggle against Europe's top duelist.
The Dutch central midfielder should, therefore, lead his PSG team to victory in this tricky match. The margin should not exceed 4 goals this time. However, Parisians should score more than 36.
SARAN LOIRET HB VS PAYS AIX UNIVERSITÉ CLUB HANDBALL 01/03/24 - 8 P.M.
With the heart
It seems that Aix-en-Provence has yet to get back on track. Their recent defeat, 26-29 against USAM, is further evidence of their struggles, especially as Saran managed a valuable draw against their direct competitor. With the inability to share points, the end of the season will likely determine whether Créteil or Saran will face relegation. Saran now has a golden opportunity this weekend, facing Aix-en-Provence.
Despite recurrent offensive difficulties throughout the season, Aix's gameplay remains static, heavily reliant on individual exploits rather than collective strategies and talent exploitation. This predictability should aid Saran, particularly with Théo Clarac, their designated defender, who should focus on disrupting Aix's rhythm and increasing defensive collaboration. However, Aix's technical prowess will likely see them surpass the 30-goal mark, especially exploiting transitions and disorganized central defenders. Romain Lagarde is expected to lead Aix's attack during these transitional phases.
On the other hand, Saran's strength lies in their defensive duels, with Romuald Kolle and Clément Damiani likely to shine. Saran's ability to exceed 30 goals hinges on the depth and threat posed by their center Tom Robyns. Often more focused on assisting than scoring, Robyns needs to show more intent towards goal to fully capitalize on his efforts. If he manages to exceed 5 goals, Saran should score more than 31 goals.
Therefore, we anticipate this encounter to end in a draw, likely 32-32, or the victory will be decided by fine margins in the closing moments of the match.